How do we limit warming to 1.5°C: informing the Talanoa Dialogue question, “How do we get there?”

Integrated Assessment Models of climate change mitigation, assessed in IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (IPCC SR1.5), show a large spectrum of 1.5°C- compatible pathways that limit warming to this level during the century, or exceed it by only a limited amount of less than 0.1°C (“low overshoot”). This Climate Analytics submission to the Talanoa Dialogue, which unpacks in some detail the implications of these pathways.

Integrated Assessment Models: what are they and how do they arrive at their conclusions?

Briefings

October 2018

Integrated Assessment Models: what are they and how do they arrive at their conclusions?

This briefing sets out some of the important context and caveats in relation to understanding Integrated Assessment Models and their results, particularly in relation to the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

New Zealand’s Zero Carbon Bill – getting the Paris Agreement right

Briefings

July 2018

New Zealand’s Zero Carbon Bill – getting the Paris Agreement right

This submission assesses which of the options proposed for the New Zealand government’s proposal for a Zero Carbon Bill are compatible with the Paris Agreement's long-term temperature goal.

Working Papers

July 2018

Carbon budgets for the 1.5°C limit

Recent publications have argued that the remaining “carbon budget” available to meet the Paris agreement long-term temperature goal is larger than previously estimated in IPCC AR5. This briefing outlines why the notion of “more time” for climate protection is ill advised. We have no time to lose to achieve 1.5°C.

Trajectories to a ‘1.5 °C warmer world’ may result in vastly different outcomes at regional scales

Peer-reviewed Papers

June 2018

The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming

This Perspective in the journal Nature shows that trajectories towards a ‘1.5 °C warmer world’ may result in vastly different outcomes at regional scales, owing to variations in the pace and location of climate change and their interactions with society’s mitigation, adaptation and vulnerabilities to climate change.

Global mean temperature indicators linked to warming levels avoiding climate risks

Peer-reviewed Papers

May 2018

Global mean temperature indicators linked to warming levels avoiding climate risks

Indicators used to define limits of warming and those used to track the evolution of the Earth System under climate change are not directly comparable.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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