The human imperative of stabilising global climate change at 1.5°C
O. Hoegh-Guldberg, D. Jacob, M. Taylor, T. Guillén Bolaños, M. Bindi, S. Brown, I. A. Camilloni, A. Diedhiou, R. Djalante, K. Ebi, F. Engelbrecht, J. Guiot, Y. Hijioka, S. Mehrotra, C. W. Hope, A. J. Payne, H.-O. Pörtner, S. I. Seneviratne, Adelle Thomas, R. Warren, G. Zhou
The need to stabilise global climate
Climate change will be the greatest threat to humanity and global ecosystems in the coming years, and there is a pressing need to understand and communicate the impacts of warming, across the perspectives of the natural and social sciences.
Hoegh-Guldberg et al. review the climate change–impact literature, expanding on the recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
They provide evidence of the impacts of warming at 1°, 1.5°, and 2°C—and higher—for the physical system, ecosystems, agriculture, and human livelihoods.
The benefits of limiting climate change to no more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels would outweigh the costs.
Coastal loss and damage for small islands
This commentary on a paper in Nature Sustainability reviews how the study quantifies the impacts of sea-level rise on small island states and estimates the impacts in terms of cost, land loss and population exposure across all small islands worldwide.
Adjusting 1.5°C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information
This study uses an integrated assessment model to explore how 1.5°C pathways could adjust in light of new adverse information, such as a reduced 1.5°C carbon budget, or slower-than-expected low-carbon technology deployment.
2030 targets aligned to 1.5°C: evidence from the latest global pathways
Our new method applies sustainability limits and minimises the need for carbon dioxide removal to set key 2030 global targets for renewables, fossil fuels and emissions.
The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty
Here, we investigate the deployment timescales of solar radiation modification and how they are affected by different levels of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty.
Emissions as usual: implications for the Safeguard Mechanism of LNG and coal mine projects
This report examines the implications of committed and proposed developments in the LNG and coal mining sectors for reform of Australia's Safeguard Mechanism.
Uncompensated claims to fair emission space risk putting Paris Agreement goals out of reach
Only halving emissions by 2030 can minimise risks of crossing cryosphere thresholds
1.5°C is still in reach to reduce the worst climate risks – but only with immediate mitigation action and shifting finance
How can the EU transform its economy to meet the 1.5°C goal?
What does the 1.5°C goal require from EU climate policy? This 4i-TRACTION policy brief analyses the latest 1.5°C-aligned scenarios and spells out what they imply for EU climate policy.
Institutional decarbonisation scenarios evaluated against the Paris Agreement 1.5°C goal
This study analyses six institutional decarbonisation scenarios published between 2020 and mid 2021 (including four from the oil majors and two from the International Energy Agency. It finds that most of the scenarios would be classified as inconsistent with the Paris Agreement as they fail to limit warming to ‘well below 2 ̊C, let alone 1.5 ̊C, and would exceed the 1.5 ̊C warming limit by a significant margin.