Publications

The emissions gap in 2020 is the difference between emission levels in 2020 consistent with meeting climate targets, and levels expected in that year if country pledges and commitments are met. As it becomes less and less likely that the emissions gap will be closed by 2020, the world will have to rely on more difficult, costlier and riskier means after 2020 of keeping global average temperature increase below 2°C.

The Climate Action Tracker has spent recent months researching the world’s 24 biggest emitters, gathering data from a wide range of sources and today released its full assessment of their current pledges and policy pathways. These are the numbers that have been used to arrive at the 3.7°C policy projection.

National action on climate change mitigation appears to be joining the international climate negotiations in the new and ever popular “climate shuffle” dance. It involves maximum effort and motion while staying in the same spot…or even, in some cases, going backwards.

While the official UNFCCC negotiations made some limited progress, encouraging developments on the margins give hope that faster progress is possible.

Limiting global warming below 2°C – or even to below 1.5°C - remains technically and economically feasible, but only with political ambition backed by rapid action starting now, the Climate Action Tracker said today.

There is a vast surplus of units in Kyoto's cap-and-trade system. . If no solution for the carry-over of this surplus from commitment period to commitment period is found, countries that have put forward a target for the second commitment period may be under no pressure to deviate from business-as-usual emissions until 2026.