This paper presents a set of scenarios that simulate different mitigation commitments made by G20 countries for 2030 and mid-century and the resulting impacts on global temperature rise.

Highlights

The G20—a group collectively accounting for around 75 percent of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, 80 percent of global GDP, and two-thirds of global population—has an outsized role to play in addressing climate change.

Current submitted nationally determined contributions (NDCs), together with legally binding net zero commitments, put the world on a trajectory to 2.4°C of warming by the end of the century.

Additional 2030 and net zero pledges that have been announced by the G20 countries but not yet formalised in the NDCs or binding net zero targets could lower projected temperature rise in 2100 to 2.1°C, if fully implemented.

This is an important step in the right direction but still far from sufficient to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal. Moreover, the announced net zero pledges would in most cases require very steep emissions reductions from pledged 2030 levels, which is out of step with feasible pathways identified by global modeling efforts. Ambitious action to rapidly cut emissions in the 2020s is urgently needed to improve the robustness of the pathway to net zero.

If all G20 members were to adopt mid-century net zero commitments and align their NDCs with a 1.5°C pathway, end-of-century global warming could be limited to 1.7°C.

Ca g20paper closingthegap figure2 v07 standalone

With this 0.7°C drop, down from 2.4°C under current commitments, G20 countries could collectively close three-quarters of the temperature gap to 1.5°C, keeping it within reach.

Those G20 members that have not yet strengthened their NDCs or committed to achieving net zero emissions should do so urgently.

To ultimately achieve the 1.5°C goal, ambitious action from non-G20 countries is needed too, as well as efforts to curb emissions from international aviation and shipping.

Achieving ambitious targets will require developed countries to substantially ramp up financial support to developing countries to help reduce emissions and build resilience against climate impacts. G20 developed countries have a particular responsibility to step up their public finance and mobilize private finance for international climate action, to close the gap to the commitment of $100 billion per year and go beyond.

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Publications

Tripling renewables by 2030: interpreting the global goal at the regional level

At COP28, governments agreed to triple global renewable capacity by 2030. This report breaks down what a 1.5ºC-aligned renewables rollout would look like at the regional level and calculate the associated investment needs.

Submission to the Australian Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax

As the gas industry in Australia has grown exponentially, the profit taxes it pays to the government have proportionally plummeted, presenting an opportunity to change this regime. Here, we respond to the Australian Government Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) – anti-avoidance provisions and clarifying treatment of ‘exploration’ and Mining, Quarrying or Prospecting Rights.

COP28 initiatives will only reduce emissions if followed through

Few of the sectoral initiatives announced during COP28 will meaningfully contribute to closing the emissions gap. Many of them lack either the ambition, clarity, coverage or accountability needed to really make a difference.

Unabated: the Carbon Capture and Storage 86 billion tonne carbon bomb aimed at derailing a fossil phase-out

The climate talks at COP28 have centred around the need for a fossil fuel phase-out. Our analysis quantifies the risk posed by restricting a phase-out commitment to only ‘unabated’ fossil fuels.

No change to warming as fossil fuel endgame brings focus onto false solutions

The CAT's annual warming estimate has risen by 0.1˚C to 2.5˚C. The estimate is largely influenced by weak existing targets rather than shifts triggered by updated Nationally Determined Contributions.

Submission on Australia's future gas strategy

The Australian government asked for answers to its questions around the future of its gas strategy. This was our submission.

When will global greenhouse gas emissions peak?

The IPCC says peaking before 2025 is a critical step to keep the 1.5°C limit within reach. With emissions set to rise in 2023, this leaves limited time to act. To assess if we can meet this milestone, we look at when global emissions might peak, as well as what we can do to get there in time.

Wind and solar benchmarks for a 1.5°C world

This report presents a detailed methodology for determining the amount of wind and solar capacity that is required for a country to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal. While the focus of the report is the method, it includes illustrative benchmarks for Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Germany, South Africa.

A 1.5°C future is possible: getting fossil fuels out of the Philippine power sector

The Philippines is also one of the fastest-growing developing countries: poverty is in decline, access to energy is rising and, with that, demand for energy services. However, fossil fuels still dominate the energy system, accounting for 78% of power generation in 2022. This report sets out what the Philippines government needs to do to get the country’s power sector onto a 1.5˚C compatible emissions pathway, replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy.

State of Climate Action 2023

This report finds that global efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C are failing across the board, with recent progress made on every indicator – except electric vehicle sales – lagging behind the pace and scale needed to address the climate crisis.

Chris leboutillier OD8hv Yh J1y Q unsplash

Production Gap Report 2023

Governments, in aggregate, still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The persistence of the global production gap puts a well-managed and equitable energy transition at risk.

Emissions impossible: Unpacking CSIRO GISERA Beetaloo Middle Arm fossil gas emissions estimates

This report provides an independent evaluation of the CSIRO and GISERA assessments of the potential greenhouse gas emissions that would result from the exploitation of the Beetaloo fossil shale gas reserves.

About us

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Comment

Closing the gap: the impact of G20 climate commitments on limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C