27 September, 2013

Risk shifts under changing climate sensitivity estimates


Joeri Rogelj

This note discusses how assessments of how global-mean warming (measured in °C) can shift under changing estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity. The focus is on relative low probability but high impact scenarios. It provides a short introduction to what climate sensitivity stands for and what it can be used for. It also provides an illustration of which CO2-equivalent forcing levels would be consistent with limiting global-mean warming to specific levels, depending on various interpretations of possible distributions of climate sensitivity.