1 October, 2017

RegioCrop

Authors

Climate Analytics

RegioCrop is an online tool that gives non-expert users simple access to crop yield projections for all African countries derived from state-of-the-art global crop models. This tool gives access to spatial patterns of relative change in crop yields at different levels of global average temperature warming and corresponding aggregated impacts at the country level for a selection of crops.

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Publications

Humid heat exceeds human tolerance limits and causes mass mortality

With critical physiological limits to human heat tolerance drawing ever closer, this Comment highlights the urgent need to limit further climate warming and emphasises the adaptation challenge ahead.

Spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for overshoot pathways

This study presents a new dataset of annual temperature projections for different overshoot pathways (when the 1.5 °C of global warming limit is exceeded). The data offers a unique opportunity to study local and regional climate change impacts of a range of overshoot scenarios, including when temperature thresholds might be exceeded, and by how much.

Geological Net Zero and the need for disaggregated accounting for carbon sinks

This study in Nature show that definitions of net zero now in widespread use will not actually stop global warming. The paper demonstrates that relying on natural carbon sinks, such as in forests or oceans, to 'offset' ongoing fossil fuel emissions will lead to continued warming.

The role of northern forests in limiting warming to 1.5°C

Northern forests are critical in the race to net zero CO₂ by mid-century. Protecting and restoring these forests, alongside steep and rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions, is essential both to mitigating emissions and to supporting forest ecosystem services and biodiversity.

Rapid urbanisation and climate change key drivers of dramatic flood impacts in Nepal

New study finds the devastating floods in Nepal late September were exacerbated by rapid urbanisation and climate change. The analysis found the relentless rain, which fell on saturated ground in the late monsoon, was made at least 10% heavier and 70% more likely by climate change.

Seasonal forecast of two-metre temperature and precipitation in Tanzania: A hybrid cluster and point-by-point machine learning approach

Seasonal forecasting of atmospheric parameters is important in various fields including agriculture. This study tests how machine learning can complement dynamic models using Tanzanian seasonal forecasts and finds this process uses far less computational power.

Adapting East and Southern Africa’s livestock to climate change

This paper presents a decision-making framework to help livestock farmers in Eastern and Southern Africa select context-specific adaptation strategies in response to climate change. The framework uses a decision tree to evaluate options based on different climate scenarios and systems, offering tailored guidance for various livestock types and regions.

Overconfidence in climate overshoot

Even if it is possible to reverse the rise of global temperatures after a temporary overshoot of 1.5°C, some climate damages triggered at peak warming, including rising sea levels, will be irreversible, according to a new study published today in Nature.

Solar geoengineering: a note to inform discussions on physical climate impacts, risks and governance issues

With international efforts on climate action still not on track to limit warming to 1.5°C, technological fixes that aim to intentionally alter the Earth’s climate, such as solar geoengineering, might seem like appealing options for tackling global warming. But they come with questions in terms of feasibility, impacts and risks, governance and geopolitics, and who may or may not benefit.

Technical guide for the development of long-term low emission development strategies in Africa

This technical guide proposes concrete steps and actions to help African countries develop strong, high-performing Long-Term Low Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategies that chart a low-emission development path, build resilience, encourage innovation, and create new opportunities for green growth.

How can event attribution science underpin financial decisions on Loss and Damage?

With climate extremes hitting nations across the globe, disproportionately burdening vulnerable developing countries, funding for loss and damage is an acute need. Attribution science can provide useful information for decision makers.

Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks

Current climate policies are putting Earth on a path to a high risk of triggering climatic tipping points – even if temperatures return to below 1.5°C of global warming after a period of overshoot. A new study finds that the risk of crossing these thresholds increases with every additional 0.1 °C of overshoot above 1.5 °C and strongly accelerates above 2.0 °C. These risks can be minimised if stringent emissions reductions are taken in the next decade, and net zero greenhouse gas emissions are met and maintained.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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