Publications

Current national emissions targets can't limit global warming to 2°C, calculate Joeri Rogelj, Malte Meinshausen and colleagues — they might even lock the world into exceeding 3°C warming.

This study describes the coupling of the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), Lund–Potsdam–Jena Model for managed land (LPJmL), with the general circulation model (GCM), Simplified Parameterizations primitivE Equation DYnamics model (SPEEDY), to study the feedbacks between land-use change and natural vegetation dynamics and climate during the 20th century.

This report analyses the potential for changing track after 2020, from an insufficient global reductionby 2020, to two emission pathways that imply a reasonable chance to stay below 2°C and 1.5°C respectively.

We investigate the qualitative, functional relationship between the likelihood of achieving a normative target and the costs of climate-change mitigation. In contrast to the example of exponentially rising costs for lowering concentration levels, we show that the mitigation costs rise proportionally to the likelihood of meeting a temperature target, across a range of concentration levels.