Publications

This study analyses six institutional decarbonisation scenarios published between 2020 and mid 2021 (including four from the oil majors and two from the International Energy Agency. It finds that most of the scenarios would be classified as inconsistent with the Paris Agreement as they fail to limit warming to ‘well below 2 ̊C, let alone 1.5 ̊C, and would exceed the 1.5 ̊C warming limit by a significant margin.

Long-term, low greenhouse gas emission development strategies provide a beneficial space for Least Developed Countries to set out a visionary blueprint for a resilient, decarbonised future, compatible with limiting warming to 1.5°C.

This work comments on a study by Samset et al. that found the effects of emission mitigation will only be perceived through global temperature with a multi-decadal delay. This paper provides additional context and expresses concerns with the approach.

Covering the period 2020-2021, this report looks back at how, regardless of the COVID-19 pandemic, our work continued to feed into the global priorities in areas of climate science around the 1.5°C limit in the Paris Agreement, global decarbonisation, international climate negotiations and implementing climate action in vulnerable countries – small island developing states and least developed countries.

When categorising pathways in line with the Paris Agreement, the focus has been put on the temperature outcome. Here we propose a pathway based on emission reduction objectives that reflect the climate criteria set out in the Paris Agreement.