In a recent statement, G7 foreign ministers acknowledged the urgent need to “scale up climate finance for adaptation in line with the Glasgow call to at least double the collective provision of adaptation finance from 2019 levels by 2025, in the context of achieving a balance between mitigation and adaptation in the provision of scaled-up financial resources, recalling Article 9, paragraph 4, of the Paris Agreement“.

It has been estimated that adaptation finance was roughly USD 20 billion per year in 2019. A doubling of efforts, as agreed in the Glasgow Climate Pact and reiterated by the G7 ministers, would bring adaptation finance into the vicinity of $40 billion.

At this rate we would fall woefully short of what the latest science from the IPCC and the 2021 Adaptation Gap Report tell us will be needed (Figure 1). Median values for cost estimates stand at USD 127 billion in 2030 and USD 295 billion in 2050. This may sound prohibitively large, but in comparison fossil fuel subsidies stood at USD 440 billion in 2021.

Adaptation finance figure — Comparison of recent studies that estimated developing country adaptation costs in billion USD (in 2005 prices) per year, for panel a) 2030 and panel b) 2050 based on Chapagain et al. (2020) and IPCC. Panel c) shows the currently tracked adaptation finance (2019 values) and pledged doubling by 2025 relative to the lower bounds of estimated adaptation costs from panel a).

Publications

The 1.5°C limit and risks of overshoot

This briefing looks at what the 1.5°C limit means in terms of adaptation and loss and damage for the most vulnerable countries and regions. It finds that slowing down warming is critical to buy us time to adapt and also to avoid irreversible loss and damage. Even if warming rises above 1.5°C (overshoot) we can bring it down again with ambitious emissions reductions.

Le seuil de +1,5°C et le risque de dépassement de ce seuil

Ce rapport examine ce que la limite de 1,5 °C signifie en termes d'adaptation et de pertes et dommages pour les pays et régions les plus vulnérables. Il constate qu'il est essentiel de ralentir le réchauffement pour nous donner le temps de nous adapter et pour éviter des pertes et des dommages irréversibles. Même si le réchauffement dépasse 1,5 °C, nous pouvons le faire baisser à nouveau en réduisant les émissions de manière ambitieuse.

Effectiveness of water-related adaptation decreases with increasing warming

When it comes to water, adaptation to climate change becomes less effective when warming is above 1.5°C, according to a new study looking at water-related climate risk at 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C of warming. The study finds adaptation needs to go hand-in-hand with ambitious emissions reductions and decarbonisation.

Climate justice and loss and damage: perspectives from the global south

This article outlines the loss and damage debate through a climate justice lens with particular emphasis on Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries. It examines the latest developments of the new loss and damage fund including operationalisation.

Shivendu shukla 3yo T Pu YR9 ZY unsplash

A better integration of health and economic impact assessments of climate change

This study lays out how to integrate the economic repercussions of climate change on people's health with direct health impacts. The authors argue this could provide more realistic scenario projections than health studies on their own and be more useful for adaptation policy.

Tripling renewables by 2030: interpreting the global goal at the regional level

At COP28, governments agreed to triple global renewable capacity by 2030. This report breaks down what a 1.5ºC-aligned renewables rollout would look like at the regional level and calculate the associated investment needs.

Hitzestress und Anpassungsmaßnahmen in der Metropolregion Berlin-Brandenburg

Städte sind dabei besonders anfällig für Hitzestress. Deshalb betrachten wir in diesem Bericht die Folgen des Klimawandels auf die Metropolregion Berlin-Brandenburg, mit einem speziellen Fokus auf die Auswirkungen von Hitzestress und die Entwicklung von Anpassungsstrategien.

Climatic risks to adaptive capacity

A society’s adaptive capacity determines whether the potential of adaptation to reduce risks will be realised. In this paper, we make the case that climate change itself adds to adaptation constraints and limits.

Machine learning evidence map reveals global differences in adaptation action

In this study, we tracked how adaptation policy research has changed globally to create a map of how governments around the world use different tools at different levels and in different regions. We found that while the evidence base is growing, most of this evidence, however, comes from the Global North.

Defining a Regional Goal on Adaptation for the Caribbean

While the Global Goal on Adaptation provides a collective goal for adapting to climate change, adaptation is often a context specific and localised process. This paper proposes a Regional Goal on Adaptation for the Caribbean based on priorities relevant for Caribbean small island developing states.

Adaptation constraints in scenarios of socio-economic development

Here, we combine data on documented adaptation from the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative with national macro indicators and assess future changes in adaptation constraints alongside the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, spanning a wide range of future socio-economic development scenarios.

Towards scenario representation of adaptive capacity for global climate change assessments

Climate change adaptation needs, as well as the capacity to adapt, are unequally distributed around the world. Here we propose ways to quantify adaptive capacity within the framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, a scenario set widely used by climate impact and integrated assessment models.

About us

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Comment

Current and pledged adaptation finance scrapes the bottom of the barrel