Latest science on the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement

This briefing provides a comprehensive overview of what the science is saying now about the 1.5°C warming limit – what it means, what is at stake, and what actions are needed to limit the risks of overshoot and safeguard a liveable future.

Tracking what matters: SIDS priorities for global adaptation indicators

This briefing helps SIDS advocate for global adaptation indicators that catalyse support, investment, and political will to scale up adaptation responses, not just track them.

Climate overshoot implications for local adaptation planning

New perspective piece argues climate overshoot – the temporary exceedance of the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement – may not be relevant for short-term adaptation planning, but it should be considered for long-term plans and policies, such as infrastructure-based measures and for irreversible impacts such as sea-level rise.

Fair carbon removal obligations under climate response uncertainty

We assess the level of ‘preventive’ CDR needed to draw warming down to 1.5°C in case of a stronger-than-average Earth System response.

Reversal of the impact chain for actionable climate information

This study helps local decision-makers understand the link between the risks they want to avoid (i.e. health-related heat risks) and CO2 emissions using a new method that makes identifying critical risk levels easier for non-scientists.

Humid heat exceeds human tolerance limits and causes mass mortality

With critical physiological limits to human heat tolerance drawing ever closer, this Comment highlights the urgent need to limit further climate warming and emphasises the adaptation challenge ahead.

Spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for overshoot pathways

This study presents a new dataset of annual temperature projections for different overshoot pathways (when the 1.5 °C of global warming limit is exceeded). The data offers a unique opportunity to study local and regional climate change impacts of a range of overshoot scenarios, including when temperature thresholds might be exceeded, and by how much.

Geological Net Zero and the need for disaggregated accounting for carbon sinks

This study in Nature show that definitions of net zero now in widespread use will not actually stop global warming. The paper demonstrates that relying on natural carbon sinks, such as in forests or oceans, to 'offset' ongoing fossil fuel emissions will lead to continued warming.

The role of northern forests in limiting warming to 1.5°C

Northern forests are critical in the race to net zero CO₂ by mid-century. Protecting and restoring these forests, alongside steep and rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions, is essential both to mitigating emissions and to supporting forest ecosystem services and biodiversity.

Rapid urbanisation and climate change key drivers of dramatic flood impacts in Nepal

New study finds the devastating floods in Nepal late September were exacerbated by rapid urbanisation and climate change. The analysis found the relentless rain, which fell on saturated ground in the late monsoon, was made at least 10% heavier and 70% more likely by climate change.

Seasonal forecast of two-metre temperature and precipitation in Tanzania: A hybrid cluster and point-by-point machine learning approach

Seasonal forecasting of atmospheric parameters is important in various fields including agriculture. This study tests how machine learning can complement dynamic models using Tanzanian seasonal forecasts and finds this process uses far less computational power.

Adapting East and Southern Africa’s livestock to climate change

This paper presents a decision-making framework to help livestock farmers in Eastern and Southern Africa select context-specific adaptation strategies in response to climate change. The framework uses a decision tree to evaluate options based on different climate scenarios and systems, offering tailored guidance for various livestock types and regions.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Comment

Social vulnerability to climate change: a review of concepts and evidence

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