6 November, 2015

Five year commitments for the Paris Agreement: a fundamental issue for below 2°C and 1.5°C

Authors

Bill Hare, Michiel Schaeffer, Carl Schleussner

The length of Parties’ successive mitigation commitments under the anticipated Paris Agreement is emerging as a fundamental issue. This is because it can greatly impact the ability of the new agreement to achieve the goal of holding the global average temperature increase below a 2°C increase above pre-industrial levels, and returning below a 1.5°C increase above pre-industrial levels by 2100.

Publications

The 1.5°C limit and risks of overshoot

This briefing looks at what the 1.5°C limit means in terms of adaptation and loss and damage for the most vulnerable countries and regions. It finds that slowing down warming is critical to buy us time to adapt and also to avoid irreversible loss and damage. Even if warming rises above 1.5°C (overshoot) we can bring it down again with ambitious emissions reductions.

Le seuil de +1,5°C et le risque de dépassement de ce seuil

Ce rapport examine ce que la limite de 1,5 °C signifie en termes d'adaptation et de pertes et dommages pour les pays et régions les plus vulnérables. Il constate qu'il est essentiel de ralentir le réchauffement pour nous donner le temps de nous adapter et pour éviter des pertes et des dommages irréversibles. Même si le réchauffement dépasse 1,5 °C, nous pouvons le faire baisser à nouveau en réduisant les émissions de manière ambitieuse.

Kipppunkte und kaskadische Kippdynamiken im Klimasystem

Dieser im Auftrag des deutschen Umweltbundesamtes erstellte Bericht befasst sich mit Kippelementen - sensible Komponenten des Erdsystems, die bei Überschreiten kritischer Schwellenwerte (Kipppunkte) irreversiblen Veränderungen ausgesetzt werden können. Er unterstreicht, dass selbstverstärkende Mechanismen zwischen diesen Elementen zu schnellen, irreversiblen Veränderungen führen können.

Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios

This peer-reviewed paper analyses what happens in an 'overshoot scenario' - where temperature rise peaks just above 1.5°C, but then return below it by the end of the century. It concludes that despite a drop in warming, regional climate changes may only be partially reversed in the decades after peak warming, demonstrating the value of limiting peak temperatures to as low as possible.

Unabated: the Carbon Capture and Storage 86 billion tonne carbon bomb aimed at derailing a fossil phase-out

The climate talks at COP28 have centred around the need for a fossil fuel phase-out. Our analysis quantifies the risk posed by restricting a phase-out commitment to only ‘unabated’ fossil fuels.

No change to warming as fossil fuel endgame brings focus onto false solutions

The CAT's annual warming estimate has risen by 0.1˚C to 2.5˚C. The estimate is largely influenced by weak existing targets rather than shifts triggered by updated Nationally Determined Contributions.

Adjusting 1.5°C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information

This study uses an integrated assessment model to explore how 1.5°C pathways could adjust in light of new adverse information, such as a reduced 1.5°C carbon budget, or slower-than-expected low-carbon technology deployment.

The effects of political knowledge use by developing country negotiators in Loss and Damage negotiations

This article traces how developing country negotiators used knowledge to further their interests in loss and damage negotiations from 2003 to 2013.

2030 targets aligned to 1.5°C: evidence from the latest global pathways

Our new method applies sustainability limits and minimises the need for carbon dioxide removal to set key 2030 global targets for renewables, fossil fuels and emissions.

De la CDN 1.0 à la CDN 2.0: qu'est-ce qui a changé dans les CDN des PMA de l’Afrique de l'Ouest?

La présente étude examine les premières et les secondes Contributions Déterminées au niveau National des onze pays les moins avancés de l’Afrique de l’Ouest à savoir le Bénin, le Burkina Faso, la Gambie, la Guinée, la Guinée Bissau, le Libéria, le Mali, le Niger, le Sénégal, la Sierra Leone et le Togo.

EU’s role in the world: how can EU climate diplomacy stimulate greater ambition?

This paper discusses EU climate leadership and ambition and explores avenues for the EU to promote greater climate action inside and out of the UNFCCC process.

Research agenda for the loss and damage fund

This piece in Nature discusses what research could contribute to the design of the loss and damage fund.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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