Publications

This paper analyses the obstacles and solutions related to the provision of cross-border public transport (CBPT) between neighbouring EU countries, with the focus on the borders between Poland and Lithuania, and between Romania and Hungary.  
Last year at COP27, the international community came together to agree on the creation of a new fund that would specifically address loss and damage. Our experts Olivia Serdeczny and Tabea Lissner step through how the scientific community can contribute and inform the evidence base for policy choices in nature climate change.  
Solar radiation modification (SRM), is presented by some as an option that may help to limit global temperature rise. However, SRM cannot address the root causes of anthropogenic climate change – the continued emissions of greenhouse gases. Investing precious time and resources in this critical decade to explore SRM technologies distracts from the urgent need to step up mitigation efforts to halve emissions by 2030.  
On the road to net zero, coal and fossil gas generation need to be phased out urgently. This report develops a 1.5°C compatible pathway for fossil gas generation in South Korea’s power sector a phaseout schedule for the country’s gas fleet.  
Based on scenarios underlying the IPCC's 6th Assessment Report, in this paper we construct a suite of scenarios that combine the following elements: (a) two quantifications of a moral claim to the remaining carbon space by South Asia, and Africa, (b) a 'highest possible emission reduction' effort by developed regions, and (c) a corresponding range for other developing regions. Our findings raise important questions of perspectives on equity in the context of the Paris Agreement including on the critical importance of climate finance.  
This report, produced in collaboration with Solutions for Our Climate, calculates a 1.5°C-aligned phase out date for fossil gas in the South Korean power sector. We find that South Korea should aim to phase out fossil gas from the power sector before 2035.  
Sub-Saharan Africa is at a pivotal crossroads in its development. Its choice of energy for the future will be decisive in achieving its sustainable development ambitions, including clean and affordable electricity access for all. This report provides an overview of the state of the energy transition in sub-Saharan Africa.  
The new Philippine government has critical decisions to make on investing in electricity generation infrastructure. Aggressively shifting to renewables will decarbonise the grid, provide energy security and help achieve 1.5°C. Using data from our 1.5°C National Pathway Explorer, we have compared the current Philippine Energy Plan (2020-2040) with 1.5°C benchmarks to show what needs to happen in the power sector by 2030 and 2040.  
This fourth and final ZERO IN report looks at how cutting emissions this decade can limit temperature rise and other climate impacts in the near-term. It looks back to what was set out by governments in the Glasgow Climate Pact and unpacks what “enhanced mitigation ambition …. in this critical decade” must look like, based on the latest IPCC science.  
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires transforming almost all systems, from how we power our economy and build our cities to how we feed a growing population and manage our land. This report provides an overview of how we are collectively doing in addressing the climate crisis.  
Vulnerable communities often live in climate-exposed locations, and have access to fewer resources to prepare for and respond to disasters. This is the case for Haitian migrants in The Bahamas. Haitian communities were the locus of the majority of deaths and missing people attributed to the 2019 Hurricane Dorian and faced a series of distributional, procedural and recognition injustices. We investigate the historical factors and contemporary conditions of Haitian communities in The Bahamas that resulted in significant inequities, disproportional impacts and infractions of human rights.  
Global action remains insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal. Increasing the ambition of 2030 climate targets and accelerating emissions reductions in this decade are essential. This report presents technically feasible 1.5°C compatible energy and emissions pathways for the group of countries that make up the Council of Europe (CoE), and assesses whether CoE member states’ current 2030 climate targets (the Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs) are collectively aligned with limiting warming to 1.5°C.  
In 2022 the new Australian Government sought consultation from experts and interested parties on its proposed reforms to the Safeguard Mechanism to help industry reduce emissions in line with its climate targets. The Safeguard Mechanism requires Australia’s largest greenhouse gas emitters to keep their net emissions below an emissions limit (a baseline).  
This study analyses six institutional decarbonisation scenarios published between 2020 and mid 2021, including four from the oil majors (two from BP), and two developed by the International Energy Agency IEA. It finds that most of the scenarios would be classified as inconsistent with the Paris Agreement as they fail to limit warming to ‘well below 2 ̊C, let alone 1.5 ̊C, and would exceed the 1.5 ̊C warming limit by a significant margin.  
Covering the period 2020-2021, this report looks back at how, regardless of the COVID-19 pandemic, our work continued to feed into the global priorities in areas of climate science around the 1.5°C limit in the Paris Agreement, global decarbonisation, international climate negotiations and implementing climate action in vulnerable countries – small island developing states and least developed countries.  
This paper provides five scenarios of sustainable irrigation deployment in the 21st century integrated into the framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, which account for biophysical irrigation limits and socioeconomic constraints. We find that the potential for sustainable irrigation expansion implied by biophysical limits alone is considerably reduced when socioeconomic factors are considered.  
The 2015 Paris Agreement sets the objectives of global climate ambition. The scientific community has explored the characteristics of greenhouse gas emission reduction pathways in line with the Paris Agreement. However, when categorising pathways, the focus has been put on the temperature outcome and not on emission reduction objectives. Here we propose a pathway classification that aims to comprehensively reflect the climate criteria set out in the Paris Agreement.  
This report assesses how fast fossil gas power generation must be phased out in different parts of the world to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal in reach. Security and economic concerns in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine may compel a faster phase-down of gas in some regions.  
A key instrument to allocating finance to the most vulnerable to both accelerate the energy transition and create resilience against the impacts of climate that are already with us, is the Green Climate Fund. Australia left this multilateral institution in 2019, but its new government could stand to gain on multiple fronts by reengaging to deliver on both its climate and foreign policy objectives.  
This briefing is the second of a two-part Climate Analytics series that examines historical access to the Green Climate Fund (GCF) by Small Island Developing States (SIDS). It focuses on the quality of SIDS proposals submitted to the GCF based on the feedback given to proposals by the independent Technical Advisory Panel (iTAP).  
At the UN climate summit COP26, governments made a collective commitment to bring forward 2030 targets this year that are in line with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal. This policy brief outlines six key policy recommendations for this June’s G7 summit that, if adopted, would demonstrate the ambition and leadership needed to keep the 1.5°C limit in sight and to maintain the momentum that was developed at COP26.  
This study extends the framework of an existing spatially resolved, annual-scale Earth system model (ESM) emulator (MESMER) by a monthly downscaling module (MESMER-M), thus providing local monthly temperatures from local yearly temperatures. MESMER-M is able to statistically generate ESM-like, large initial-condition ensembles of spatially explicit monthly temperature fields, providing monthly temperature probability distributions which are of critical value to impact assessments.  
This study ascribes the observations in increased Atlantic tropical cyclone activity to variations in atmospheric circulation as well as sea surface temperature (SST) increase. Using a novel weather-pattern-based statistical model, the authors find that the warming trend in the Atlantic has doubled the probability of extremely active tropical cyclone seasons.  
Travel cost method, descriptive statistics and a two-step Heckman method are used to analyse the use and economic value of indigenous seasonal climate forecasts (ISCF) in Benin. ISCF were produced based on the observation of abiotic and biotic indicators in Kandi, Glazoué and Zè with the observations largely undertaken by local elders and professional traditional forecasters.  
This report provides an overview of the best available science and other key concepts of relevance to the achievement of the 1.5°C limit – i.e., the long-term temperature goal (LTTG) of the Paris Agreement – and assesses the adequacy of the mitigation measures and targets of the 33 Respondent States in Duarte Agostinho v Portugal and 32 other States against the LTTG.  
The contributions of single greenhouse gas emitters to country-level climate change are generally not disentangled, despite their relevance for climate policy and litigation. Here, we quantify the contributions of the five largest emitters (China, US, EU-27, India, and Russia) to projected 2030 country-level warming and extreme hot years with respect to pre-industrial climate using an innovative suite of Earth System Model emulators.  
Burkina Faso is highly vulnerable to the increasing impacts of climate change and currently has large adaptation deficits. Systematic policy document analysis, semi-structured interviews and participant observations were undertaken to explore how scientific information makes its way into national adaptation policy documents from its production to its inclusion into policies.  
The COP26 climate summit in Glasgow saw important progress made on the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA). However, there is much work still to be done to bring the GGA concept to life. Striking a balance between the GGA serving its ‘global’ purpose, whilst providing sufficient flexibility for countries to describe their own adaptation objectives and progress will ultimately determine the effectiveness of the GGA.  
Multilateral cooperation initiatives (or “climate clubs”) can generate some of the additional action that is needed to achieve the goals agreed in the Paris Agreement. This paper, produced for the German Federal Environmental Authority (Umweltbundesamt UBA), analysed the state of collaboration in the four policy areas energy transition, synthetic fuels, food systems and forest protection.  
In Paris, all governments solemnly promised to come to COP26 with more ambitious 2030 commitments to close the massive 2030 emissions gap that was already evident in 2015. Three years later the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C reinforced the scientific imperative, and earlier this year it called a climate “code red.” Now, at the midpoint of Glasgow, it is clear there is a massive credibility, action and commitment gap that casts a long and dark shadow of doubt over the net zero goals put forward by more than 140 countries, covering 90% of global emissions.  
Here, we provide a first quantification of a few key takeaways for natural gas in a world that implements the Paris Agreement and limits warming to 1.5°C.  
The annual ZERO IN reports by the CONSTRAIN project provide information on scientific topics that are fundamental to the Paris Agreement, as well as background and context on new developments at the science-policy interface. This includes new insights into the complex processes represented in climate models and what they mean for temperature change and other climate impacts over the coming decades. This third report provides additional context and background on the latest IPCC report on the physical science basis of climate change (IPCC AR6 WGI), and addresses important questions around how likely we are to reach 1.5°C of global temperature increase.  
53 countries have signed up to the Global Methane Pledge, committing to cut methane emissions by 30% in 2030 from 2020 levels. In 2019, these countries made up 30% of global methane emissions and around 34% of total global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This analysis quantifies the potential impacts of the pledge if all countries were to adopt it.  
Meeting climate goals is becoming a matter of fundamental concern for many countries. For the most vulnerable countries, meeting global mitigation targets to limit the increase in global warming to below 1.5 degrees above preindustrial levels is a matter of survival - because of their limited financial, technical, technological and human capacity to cope with increasing and more frequent climate-related adverse events. This analysis takes stock of the resources mobilised through funding proposals submitted to and approved by the Green Climate Fund over the period from November 2015 to July 2021 (Board 29). It is based on data published by the GCF.  
This report identifies 40 indicators across key sectors that must transform to address the climate crisis, and assesses how current trends will impact how much work remains to be done by 2030 and 2050 to deliver a zero-carbon world in time. It also outlines the required shifts in supportive policies, innovations, strong institutions, leadership and social norms to unlock change.  
Assessing global progress on human adaptation to climate change is an urgent priority. Although the literature on adaptation to climate change is rapidly expanding, little is known about the actual extent of implementation. This paper systematically screened >48,000 articles using machine learning methods and a global network of 126 researchers to identify eight priority areas for research.  
This report, commissioned by the Independent Global Stocktake (iGST), seeks to understand: (a) how seven diverse countries use UNFCCC guidance at the national level to influence policy and politics, and (b) the implications of these findings for the framing and use of the outcomes from the GST in 2023 as an important input into the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 2025. The report also seeks to identify the conditions under which the GST could have more effect on in-country processes and makes proposals for how the GST could be made more relevant at that national level and how the iGST can play a role in this regard.  
In December 2020, the Federal Government projected Australia’s emissions would reach roughly 22% below 2005 levels by 2030 which falls short of its 26-28% Paris Agreement target. We anticipate the Federal Government will soon announce an increase in projected emissions reductions for 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario. This report reveals virtually none of the likely reductions are a result of the Federal Government’s own policy.  
Small island developing states are currently faced with two significant challenges that are more onerous due to limited financial resources: adapting to increasing climate change risk and recovering from the pandemic. Debt-for-climate swaps provide an avenue for SIDS to address these challenges.  
The picture on climate change is bleak. But 30 years of international climate cooperation have had a significant impact. This has included an extraordinary global effort to clarify the science, global agreement of a stabilisation target, an international treaty basis for mitigation and adaptation action, and a wide array of partnerships that have driven up ambition and developed technical solutions. Without this cooperation, the world would already face even more dangerous and irreversible levels of climate change – and would have none of the tools we need to effect a low-carbon transition.  
Achieving net-zero emissions at the global level, as required to limit warming to 1.5 °C, means both rapid emissions reductions across all sectors as well as a scaling-up of carbon dioxide removal (CDR). As a growing number of countries bring forward national net-zero targets, the questions of how much CDR each nation holds responsibility for, whether CDR transfers should be possible under the Paris Agreement market mechanisms, and how this might affect the years in which different countries should achieve net-zero, become increasingly important.  
This article tests fairness justifications offered in 168 nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the 2015 Paris Agreement against the touchstone of principles of international environmental law. It finds that while many NDCs refer to elements and indicators that are backed by principles of international law in determining fair shares (sustainable development, special circumstances, common but differentiated responsibilities and equity), some NDCs justify their contributions on the basis of indicators not backed by such principles.  
The new IPCC report on climate science has reinforced the absolute urgency of closing the 2030 emissions gap if there is to be any chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C. While people are suffering from ever more severe and frequent impacts of climate change around the globe, and the IPCC has yet again clearly demonstrated the feasibility and urgency of climate change mitigation, action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions continues to lag behind what is needed – in practically all countries and sectors. International climate finance to support action in developing countries is falling short. Even countries with strong targets are mostly not on track to meet them, while more have failed to bring forward stronger commitments for 2030.  
The impacts of climate change on the food system are a key concern for societies and policy makers globally. Assessments of the biophysical impacts of crop productivity show modest but uncertain impacts. But crop growth is not the only factor that matters for the food production. Climate impacts on the labour force through increased heat stress also need to be considered. Here, we provide projections for the integrated climate-induced impacts on crop yields and worker productivity on the agro-economy in a global multi-sector economic model.  
Although effects on labour is one of the most tangible and attributable climate impact, our quantification of these effects is insufficient and based on weak methodologies. Partly, this gap is due to the inability to resolve different impact channels, such as changes in time allocation (labour supply) and slowdown of work (labour productivity). Explicitly resolving those in a multi-model inter-comparison framework can help to improve estimates of the effects of climate change on labour effectiveness.  
This study aims at analysing the employment implications of Antigua and Barbuda transitioning to a low carbon economy and discussing the various social dimensions of a ‘Just Transition’, with a focus on electricity and road transport. This report assesses the employment impacts for a scenario derived based on the current draft NDC targets compared to a Business-as-Usual Scenario, with a focus on road transport and the electricity sector.  
In late 2020, Switzerland formally updated its national determined contribution to achieving the Paris Agreement's long-term temperature goal by targeting a higher level of domestic emissions reductions by 2030. This modest goal was defeated in a referendum on June 12, 2021. While the current Swiss government has reiterated its commitment to 50% overall reductions by 2030, implementation now relies on the Federal Council’s 2016 recommendation to achieve a 30% reduction in domestic emissions by 2030, with the remainder to be attained through emissions reductions achieved overseas. But is this 2030 goal enough to put Switzerland on track to achieve its goal of net zero GHG emissions by 2050 and preserve its glaciers?  
This weekend the members of the G7 will meet in the UK, in a year that marks an important deadline for countries to bring forward stronger climate targets. All of the G7 governments, covering roughly half of global GDP and over a fifth of greenhouse gas emissions, have enhanced their targets in the last year. But are these countries and other major economies pulling their weight?  
This briefings summarise the impacts of global warming at and above 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels. Key information is extracted from the Special Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of its sixth assessment report cycle (AR6). These Special Reports represent an invaluable resource to understand the impacts of exceeding 1.5°C and new science published after their compilation has only contributed to an ever clearer picture of the grave consequences of exceeding that limit. In addition to the overview on climate impacts based on the Special Reports, latest information on global mitigation efforts and requirements to meet the 1.5°C limit are also included.  
The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C sent a message of urgency. The IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate re-emphasises it and adds the dimensions of legacy of our actions. It shows how changes in ocean and cryosphere will continue for centuries and millennia even after emissions have seized.  
Rules for the implementation of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement are still under negotiation at the international level. This report explores three key unresolved issues that are closely interrelated and that can considerably impact the global emissions outcome from using Article 6 as well as the amount of revenues generated to help meet the adaptation needs of particularly vulnerable developing countries.  
The impacts of climate change are affecting human societies today. In parallel, socio-economic development has increased the capacity of countries around the global to adapt to those impacts although substantial challenges remain. Countries' effectiveness in fostering climate resilience will depend on the pace of both developments under different socio-economic and emission pathways. In this study we assess trajectories of adaptation readiness in comparison with the continued emergence of hot days as a proxy for climate change hazards for different emission and socio-economic pathways over the 21st century.  
Sea-level rise poses a significant threat to Small Island Developing States (SIDS) due to the concentration of people, assets, and infrastructure in coastal zones. This review assesses literature on key emerging topics in sea level rise including: the lasting impact of near-term mitigation on long-term sea-level rise; new global coastal vertical elevation data and their impact on existing sea-level rise projections; and the interaction of sea-level rise with other hazards, including salinization, tropical cyclones and extreme precipitation. We characterize the regional nature of sea-level rise for SIDS and highlight associated impacts and risks. Finally, we review approaches to address sea-level rise as well as limits to adaptation and resultant economic and non-economic loss and damage that may be experienced by SIDS.  
Climate action announcements at US President Biden’s Leaders Summit on Climate, together with those announced since September last year, have improved the Climate Action Tracker’s warming estimate by 0.2°C. End of century warming from these Paris Agreement pledges and targets is now estimated to be 2.4°C.  
This briefing outlines why long-term strategies are a fundamental component of national climate policy architecture, and how SIDS can benefit from developing one, both directly in terms of prioritising efforts for achieving the Paris Agreement goals, and indirectly through synergies with other sustainable development and resilience goals. While we focus here on the energy sector – the largest source of emissions for SIDS – an effective LTS should consider all sectors, as well as the interlinkages between them.  
This report presents domestic emissions pathways required to keep to the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit for five countries: Viet Nam, Philippines, India, Indonesia and Japan and assesses if current 2030 climate targets are in line with these pathways. Pathways are derived from the pathways assessed in the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C. Key decarbonisation benchmarks for the power sector consistent with 1.5°C emissions pathways are also provided.  
Climate change has emerged as a growing threat to the European economy, whose economic losses are relevant for global growth. Rising temperatures and worsening extreme events are expected to affect climate-vulnerable sectors. Due to the economic integration within the European Union (EU), these impacts will likely have spillover effects and feedback loops to and from other regions. This study uses spatial econometrics to account for the interdependencies between the subnational EU regions to estimate the future impacts of changes in temperature on sectoral labour productivity under the Paris Agreement. The study confirms the presence of spatial spillover effects of climate change, and finds that observations at the economy-wide level of a non-linear, concave and single-peaked relationship between temperature and productivity do not always hold true at the sectoral level.  
Climate change has emerged as a growing threat to the European economy, whose economic losses are relevant for global growth. Rising temperatures and worsening extreme events are expected to affect climate-vulnerable sectors. Due to the economic integration within the European Union (EU), these impacts will likely have spillover effects and feedback loops to and from other regions. This study uses spatial econometrics to account for the interdependencies between the subnational EU regions to estimate the future impacts of changes in temperature on sectoral labour productivity under the Paris Agreement. The study confirms the presence of spatial spillover effects of climate change, and finds that observations at the economy-wide level of a non-linear, concave and single-peaked relationship between temperature and productivity do not always hold true at the sectoral level.  
The Climate Council's report “Aim High Go Fast” provides a very compelling and strong case for urgent rapid emission reductions, both globally, and for Australia domestically. However, there are fundamental scientific issues with the arguments brought forward in the report, specifically in relation to the argument that “we can no longer limit warming to 1.5°C”. Here we present a point-by-point rebuttal of the most important scientific shortcomings.  
In this work, through GIS mapping of all Caribbean islands, the potential for near-coastal deep-water as a resource for ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) is shown, and these results are coupled with an estimate of the countries for which OTEC would be most advantageous due to a lack of other dispatchable renewable power options. Secondly, hourly data have been utilised to explicitly show the trade-offs between battery storage needs and dispatchable renewable sources such as OTEC in 100% renewable electricity systems, both in technological and economic terms. Finally, the utility of near-shore, open-cycle OTEC with accompanying desalination is shown to enable a higher penetration of renewable energy and lead to lower system levelised costs than those of a conventional fossil fuel system.  
Southeast Asia is one of the hotspots for global energy development. This report by Climate Analytics, supported by Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, looks into the need to stop the expansion of coal and phasing out coal for power generation to avoid the catastrophic climate change impacts that threaten the region.  
From household-level choices through to national adaptation planning, people across the Pacific make critical decisions that are sensitive to climate change. In order to make the best possible decisions, they need the best possible information in a usable form. Yet, information is rarely tailored to user needs, meaning that only a small proportion of the available knowledge is reflected in decision-making. It is becoming increasingly evident that knowledge brokering can help. This briefing note looks at what the process of knowledge brokering is, and how it can be supported in the Pacific region.  
This policy brief discusses economy-wide and sector-level benchmarks in 2030 and beyond for Japan to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s long-term 1.5°C warming limit, based on recent analyses by the Climate Action Tracker and its member organisations, NewClimate Institute and Climate Analytics. The benchmarks presented in this brief are set in such a way that the world would not have to rely excessively on unproven negative emission technologies in the second half of this century.  
Because of the international community’s delay in cutting carbon emissions, some degree of reliance on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options is now inevitable to achieve the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal. This report seeks to answer questions regarding implementation of CDR options at scale. Can the sustainability challenges, risks and trade-offs inherent in large-scale CDR efforts be managed? What governance tools would need to be in place to deploy CDR options at the levels the IPCC says are needed? Can provisions under the current climate change regime support implementation at scale, or will further provisions and incentives be needed?  
This study, led by scientists from Climate Analytics, an international climate science and policy institute, is first to show that just half a degree of extra warming between 1.5°C and 2°C makes a big difference in terms of heat stress risk posed to Muslims carrying out religious rites in Saudi Arabia during summer, where the mercury frequently climbs over 45°C even now.  
This report, prepared by Climate Analytics for the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, provide insights into how Asia and the Pacific region can transition away from coal to a renewable based efficient energy system compatible with the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals.  
Achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement requires increased global climate action, especially towards the production and use of synthetic e-fuels. This paper, produced for the German Federal Environmental Authority (Umweltbundesamt UBA), focuses on aviation and maritime transport and the role of green hydrogen for indirect electrification of industry sectors.  
The European power sector is at the forefront of decarbonisation of the EU’s economy. Between 1990 and 2019 greenhouse gas emissions from the sector decreased by 44%, with a significant acceleration even before the COVID-19-induced economic crisis. This report explores the current context and opportunities for emission reduction in the sector.  
Gender inequalities are reflected in differential vulnerability, and exposure to the hazards posed by climate change and addressing them is key to increase the adaptive capacities of societies. This study highlights the importance of incorporating gender in scenarios assessing future climate impacts and underscores the relevance of addressing gender inequalities in policies aiming to foster climate resilient development.  
The European Union Council is meeting 10-11 December to revise its 2030 domestic emission reduction target. The Council has an unprecedented opportunity to cement the EU's global leadership on climate change by adopting a target that is fully consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. Our new briefing shows the domestic emission reductions needed by 2030 for the EU27 and three of its key member states – France, Germany and Poland - to be in line with that limit.  
The recent wave of net zero targets has put the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C within striking distance. In this global update, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) has calculated that global warming by 2100 could be as low as 2.1°C as a result of all the net zero pledges announced as of November 2020.  
The Climate Transparency Report (previously known as „Brown to Green Report”) is the world’s most comprehensive annual review of G20 countries’ climate action and their transition to a net zero emissions economy. This year’s report consists of two parts: the annual policy assessment based on data of the previous year(s) is complemented by an analysis of the impacts of the COVID-19 crisis and recovery efforts on countries’ climate ambition.  
This report produced by the Asia Society Policy Institute and Climate Analytics models the possible range in ambition of the new 2030 emissions reduction target the new U. S. administration under President-elect Biden will list under the Paris Agreement. This includes an assessment of the mitigation potential of Biden's Clean Energy & Climate Package. The report also finds that China’s recent commitment to reach carbon neutrality before 2060 would be directly in line with the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement if it covers all greenhouse gases, but this would require much deeper cuts in the short-term.  
Governments around the globe are responding to the economic crisis brought about by the coronavirus pandemic with unprecedented economic recovery packages. This study shines a light on the opportunity for these investments to support a green recovery by inventorying and classifying the latest information on governments' fiscal stimulus plans and comparing the size of these measures to estimates of low-carbon energy investment needs compatible with the Paris climate agreement.  
Staying within the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C warming limit requires closing the global 2030 ambition and action gap arising from the currently insufficient policies and contributions. G20 countries have a crucial role to play in realising increased climate policy ambition, given their strong economic and political influence as well as their high share in global greenhouse gas emissions. This background paper provides an overview of mitigation options and analyses the role of the G20 in their implementation.  
This article looks at the politics of L&D and inquires into negotiators´ perceptions of the most contentious issues surrounding L&D negotiations. It shows how the legitimacy of L&D as a negotiations issue is still not accepted by all and how compensation has different connotations for different negotiators. The paper argues that L&D is an ultimately political issue with distributional consequences and as such should not be treated as a purely technical problem.  
While national emission trends are a useful tool for measuring government progress towards meeting the Paris Agreement 1.5˚C temperature limit at a global level, each government will have to address its own sectors, each with their own, different baseline. What should government sectoral benchmarks be? Will they meet the global carbon budget?  
The Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal is to be achieved on the basis of equity. Accomplishing this goal will require carbon dioxide removal (CDR), yet existing plans for CDR deployment are insufficient to meet potential global needs, and equitable approaches for distributing CDR responsibilities between nations are lacking.This study applies two common burden-sharing principles to show how CDR responsibility could be shared between regions in 1.5°C and 2°C mitigation pathways.  
To inform Antigua and Barbuda’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), Antigua and Barbuda’s Department of Environment, within the Ministry of Health, Wellness and the Environment, requested technical support through the NDC Partnership’s Climate Action Enhancement Package (CAEP). This report - Antigua and Barbuda’s National Greenhouse Gas Reduction Report - supported by Climate Analytics, assesses the greenhouse gas emissions in the energy and transport sector, and undertakes a technical analysis of renewable energy needs under different pathways to reach the mitigation targets for possible inclusion in the updated NDC.  
The Paris Agreement includes the concept of a global stocktake (GST), a process by which progress on climate action is assessed, providing a critical opportunity to review overall progress made on mitigation, adaptation and means of implementation and support. Due in part to strong advocacy by small island developing states (SIDS) and least developed countries (LDCs), additional thematic areas will be part of the process. However, there remain significant research gaps on L&D that need to be addressed to support a robust GST.  
ISIpedia recently published a study that assesses the current needs of climate services in West Africa and provides implications for development of future climate services, in conjunction with CLIMAP, a Senegalese initiative that will provide climate projections designed especially for the agriculture sector. The results were drawn from two different surveys conducted by the two initiatives with the aim of understanding the state of climate service use in the region and identifying design principles for effective climate services.  
Project proposals submitted to the Green Climate Fund tend to have a higher chance of approval when the proposal includes a strong climate rationale. Feedback from some SIDS and LDCs suggests that building a climate rationale can be challenging. This briefing aims to demystify the climate rationale process and provide some guidance on how to enhance the rationale.  
Accessing the Green Climate Fund requires project proposals to include a response to the six GCF investment criteria that form the basis of the project approval process. This briefing provides insights and guidance based on best practices and lessons learned, to project proponents from SIDS and LDCs on how to address 4 of the 6 GCF investment criteria.  
This briefing aims to explain some important elements that have been proven to enhance the quality of Green Climate Fund project proposals, based on lessons learned from successful proposals, in order to provide guidance to project proponents from SIDS and LDCs on accessing the GCF.  
Ce rapport de synthèse vise à expliquer et approfondir certains éléments importants qui ont fait leur preuve en termes d'amélioration la qualité des propositions de projets soumis au Fonds Vert pour le Climat (FVC) en se basant sur les enseignements tirés des propositions de projet approuvées par le Fonds, afin de fournir des orientations aux promoteurs de projets des PEID et des PMA sur l'accès au FVC.  
Accéder au Fonds Vert pour le Climat (FVC) nécessite que les propositions de projet répondent aux six critères d'investissement du FVC qui constituent le fondement du processus d'approbation du projet. Ce rapport de synthèse fournit des idées et des orientations basées sur les meilleures pratiques et les leçons apprises, aux promoteurs de projets des PEID et des PMA sur la façon de répondre aux 4 des 6 critères d'investissement du FVC.  
Les propositions de projet soumises au Fonds Vert pour le Climat (FVC) ont généralement plus de chance d'être approuvées lorsque la proposition comprend une solide justification climatique. Les retours d'informations de certains PEID et PMA révèlent que la construction d'une logique climatique peut être difficile. Cette note d'information vise à démystifier le processus d'élaboration de la justification climatique et à fournir des orientations sur la façon d'améliorer la justification.  
Australia’s largest liquefied natural gas producer, Woodside, plans a regional hub on the Burrup Peninsula in Western Australia, which would enable it to develop trillions of cubic feet of gas over the next decades. This report outlines the implications of the emissions Burrup Hub would produce on Western Australia's ability to meet its climate targets.  
A number of the latest generation climate models (CMIP6) project greater future warming than previously assessed, but drawing conclusions about the implications for emission reduction targets is premature. This briefing looks at what could be behind these results and what this means for near-term emissions reductions and the Paris Agreement 1.5°C temperature limit.  
This study examines the effects of expanded irrigation on climate conditions around the world, specifically in comparison to other anthropogenic forces. It finds that irrigation can regionally cancel the effects of these anthropogenic forces in the face of increasing temperatures from global warming. The study further finds that approximately one billion people currently benefit from irrigation’s ability to dampen the increase of hot extremes, though it is uncertain whether this benefit will continue in the future.  
Several of the world biggest emitters have expressed the targets of their National Determined Contributions (NDCs) in non-greenhouse gas units. The current draft CMA decision in relation to Article 6.2 allows for the inclusion of non-greenhouse gas (GHG) metrics as an option for the internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs). While there are some provisions that call for further work on providing guidance on such metrics in the current draft text, there are fundamental concerns with regard to the integrity and effectiveness of such approaches.  
Under the Paris Agreement, Australia has committed to reduce its emissions by 26- 28% below 2005 levels by 2030. Australia is now considering whether to count what it portrays as “overachievement” under the Kyoto protocol, toward its emission reduction commitment (Nationally Determined Contribution, or NDC) for 2030 under the Paris Agreement. This paper explores the rule set giving rise to Australia's claim of this "overachievement", and concludes that it would not be legitimate or defensible -- from a factual, legal or equity perspective -- for Australia to use Kyoto Protocol “overachievement” toward its Paris Agreement NDC.  
Existing market mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol have accrued an available supply of some 4.65 Gt CO2 worth of carbon offsets, largely allocated to China, India, and Brazil. Were these credits to be rolled over into the mechanisms outlined by Article 6 of the Paris agreement, nearly 40% of existing ambition outlined by countries in their NDCs would be wiped away.  
Deutschland wird seine nationalen Ziele verstärken und geeignete Maßnahmen ergreifen müssen, um die Ziele des Pariser Klimaabkommens zu erreichen. Dies wird laut der Studie von Climate Analytics, im Auftrag von Agora Verkehrswende, erhebliche Anstrengungen im Verkehrssektor erfordern. Auch das bevölkerungsreichste Land der EU wird sich seiner Verantwortung stellen müssen.  
As the interest in using nature-based solutions to mitigate climate change grows, ‘blue carbon,’ which means carbon sequestered in coastal ecosystems, is also garnering attention. A number of countries have proposed including blue carbon in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and there is growing interest among some governments and fossil fuel companies in blue carbon as an offset mechanism. This briefing unpacks the key challenges and risks associated with the blue carbon concept by considering three key questions. What is the real potential of blue carbon as a mitigation measure? To what extent is carbon storage in coastal ecosystems threatened by current and future climate impacts? And is there a danger that focus on blue carbon could detract from reducing emissions from fossil fuel use?  
By 2020, Parties to the Paris Agreement are expected to enhance their mitigation commitments for the period to 2030, by submitting updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). About 10 years ago, many of these Parties submitted mitigation actions for 2020 as an outcome of COP15 in Copenhagen. With an outlook to updated NDC, this briefing assesses how Parties are expected to do in terms of achieving their 2020 target and the implications for their post-2020 emissions trajectories.  
Ocean systems are particularly vulnerable to climate change and are already heavily impacted today. This briefing provides an overview of the latest science including from the latest IPCC special reports on key risks for ocean systems including from sea-level rise, ocean acidification and impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems. The analysis underscores the need to limit warming below 1.5°C to limit impacts on ocean systems. It is clearer than ever that exceeding that warming level will fundamentally affect ocean systems and undermine any other attempts to protect them. Limiting warming to 1.5°C remains of paramount importance to safeguard the oceans.  
The commonly agreed metric to aggregate emissions and removals of greenhouse gases under the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement is the Global Warming Potential with a 100-year time-horizon (GWP100). Since the Agreement was adopted, new scientific concepts emerged, such as GWP*. This briefing looks at the pitfalls of applying this new metric.  
The current level of near-term emissions reductions governments put forward in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) is not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C, and puts the world on track for almost double that limit. If not enhanced, these NDCs would put the 1.5°C limit out of reach. This report looks into what level of change is needed to bring the next round of NDCs, due in 2020, in line with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal.  
This report, the fifth country assessment in the Climate Action Tracker's Scaling Up Climate Action Series, analyses three key areas where Turkey could accelerate its climate action: electricity supply, road and rail passenger transport and the residential buildings sector. The report illustrates GHG emissions reductions from such actions, along with other benefits for sustainable development.  
This briefing takes a look at how issues relevant for loss and damage, and particularly important to Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries, have increased in prominence in the recent IPCC Special Reports. The reports agree that attributable climate change impacts are evident at today’s levels of warming. Even some extreme events, such as marine heat waves, are almost completely attributable to climate change, providing a solid underpinning for the loss and damage discourse.  
This study analyses what actions Western Australia needs to take to play its role in global and national efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. It includes a Paris Agreement 1.5°C compatible carbon budget for all sectors of the Western Australian economy, from 2018 to 2050. The report finds that without acting to reduce emissions, Western Australia is likely to use up its Paris-Agreement 1.5°C compatible carbon budget within 12 years, but rapidly reducing carbon pollution will unlock significant economic opportunities for the state.  
This report sets out sets out the reasons why Australia needs to steeply decrease coal-based electricity generation in the coming years and phase it out entirely by 2030. Coal power generation is responsible for approximately one third of Australia’s total emissions. Ridding its electricity of coal plays a key role in getting Australia on track to meet its national emissions reduction targets and to fulfil its obligations under the Paris Agreement, which sets out to limit global average temperature rise to 1.5°C to avoid the worst of climate impacts.  
There are currently 2.3 billion children under the age of 18 living on earth who are among the group of people most vulnerable to climate change. Already today the global average temperature is 1°C above pre industrial times. The likelihood of children to live in a 1.5°, 2° and 3° world is significantly higher than for adults.  
The Production Gap Report highlights the concerning gap between Paris goals and countries’ plans for fossil fuel production. This production gap is as concerning as the emissions gap – and this report aims to expand the international climate discourse to include fossil fuel supply. It also provides a go-to resource for policymakers, researchers, and civil society on winding down fossil fuel supply in line with the Paris Agreement goals.  
The Brown to Green Report 2019 provides a comprehensive overview of all G20 countries, whether – and how well – they are doing on the journey to transition towards a net-zero emissions economy. The report draws on the latest emissions data from 2018 and covers 80 indicators on decarbonisation, climate policies, finance and vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. Providing country ratings, it identifies leaders and laggards in the G20.  
Limiting global temperature increase to 1.5°C is highly relevant for Indonesia as, at 3% of global emissions (incl. LULUCF), it is among the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters and expected to be among the worst affected by climate change. This report, the fourth country assessment in the Climate Action Tracker's Scaling Up Climate Action Series, analyses areas where Indonesia could accelerate its climate action.  
Australia is lacking the national political commitment to stimulate the economy-wide transformational changes required for increased climate mitigation ambition. High level government climate leadership is not only absent, but the government is even directly undermining adequate climate mitigation, according to this report by Climate Analytics and New Climate Institute, part of the Climate Action Tracker’s Governance Series.  
There is room for improvement in the Philippines’ political commitment to climate mitigation. The Philippines has played a leadership role on climate change internationally, including in securing the 1.5°C temperature limit in the Paris Agreement. However, it could bolster this position by undertaking and showcasing domestic mitigation efforts, according to this report by Climate Analytics and New Climate Institute, part of the Climate Action Tracker’s Governance Series.  
This report provides key carbon budget benchmarks for the energy and industry sectors for Queensland that are consistent with the state playing its role in national and global efforts to limit global mean warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial.  
This study provides projections of future governance in line with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. The study finds that under a ‘rocky road’ scenario, 30% of the global population would live in countries with weak governance in 2050, while under a ‘green road’ scenario, weak governance would be almost entirely overcome. On the basis of the governance pathways, the study also estimates the capacity of countries to adapt to climate change.  
This report shows how fast coal needs to be phased out in order to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement, in light of the latest science from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It also assesses whether the efforts to reduce coal use in electricity generation since the adoption of the Paris Agreement put as any closer to a pathway consistent with its 1.5°C limit.  
Our Annual Report looks back at how our work reflected and fed into the global priorities in 2018 in areas of advancing climate science around the 1.5°C limit in the Paris Agreement, global decarbonisation, international climate negotiations and implementing climate action in vulnerable countries.  
Climate change will be the greatest threat to humanity and global ecosystems in the coming years, and there is a pressing need to understand and communicate the impacts of warming, across the perspectives of the natural and social sciences. Hoegh-Guldberg et al. review the climate change–impact literature, expanding on the recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. They provide evidence of the impacts of warming at 1°, 1.5°, and 2°C—and higher—for the physical system, ecosystems, agriculture, and human livelihoods. The benefits of limiting climate change to no more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels would outweigh the costs.  
Theory of Change (ToC) has become a common buzzword in climate adaptation circles in recent years. As a growing number of donors and financing entities require theories of change it can feel like yet another hoop to jump through, especially for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) where resources are limited and staff are often over-stretched. So why should busy adaptation practitioners respond positively to ToC and why does it matter? And what does ToC mean anyway, and how do you start developing one?  
Europe, North America and parts of Asia can expect not just more intense but also longer lasting periods of heat, drought and rain during summer as the planet warms, worsening impacts on health and agriculture. The study, published in journal Nature Climate Change, also shows that limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in line with the Paris Agreement would largely avoid these additional impacts.  
Highly seasonal water supplies from the Himalayan watersheds of Jhelum, Kabul and upper Indus basin are critical for managing the world's largest contiguous irrigation system of the Indus basin and its dependent agrarian economy of Pakistan. Here, we assess changes in the contrasting hydrological regimes of these Himalayan watersheds, and subsequent water availability under the Paris Agreement 2015 targets that aim of limiting the mean global warming to 1.5 °C, and further, well below 2.0 °C relative to pre-industrial levels.  
When quantifying temperature changes induced by deforestation, satellite data, in situ observations, and climate models measure and simulate at different temperature heights. This study compares the effects of deforestation on surface temperature, near-surface air temperature, and lower atmospheric temperature using the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The single-model results are subsequently compared to data from multiple models from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The study shows that the choice of temperature variable has a considerable effect on the observed and simulated temperature change.  
Australia’s share of global CO2 emissions from domestic use of fossil fuels was about 1.4% in 2017. Accounting for fossil fuel exports lifts Australia’s global carbon footprint to about 5%. This is equivalent to the total emissions of Russia, which is ranked the fifth biggest CO2 emitter globally. If current government and industry projections for fossil fuel exports are realised, Australia could be responsible for about 13% of Paris Agreement- compatible global CO2 emissions in 2030.  
Shifting energy supply in South Asia and South East Asia to non-fossil fuel-based energy systems in line with the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal and achievement of Sustainable Development Goals  
National climate policies are still far from being in line with the Paris Agreement, which makes it necessary that governments need to step up their emission reduction efforts. This briefing, put together with TNO Research and the NewClimate Institute, outlines ten hands-on points on how they can raise their mitigation ambition.  
Together with the Australian Conservation Foundation, we have been analysing Australia’s emissions profile and policies. This factsheet focuses on Australia’s electricity sector and outlines how it compares with other countries.  
Staying within the Paris Agreement 1.5˚C temperature limit requires rapid, large-scale systemic transformations to fully decarbonise the global energy system by 2050. This Climate Action Tracker analysis looks into how different policy actions, at various stages of the technological adoption process, can influence uptake of the many key decarbonisation technologies needed for the future.  
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently published its Special Report on 1.5°C (SR15) to guide implementation of the Paris Agreement. Governments are tasked with developing long-term low emission sustainable development strategies (LT-LEDS) in line with the 1.5°C goal, and are invited to submit them by 2020. This briefing lays out the key findings of the IPCC SR15 that inform governments in their task to develop and submit LT-LEDS, and inform the continuous scaling up of near- and mid-term action and targets, including in Nationally Determined contributions (NDCs), in line with the ratcheting-up mechanism enshrined in the Paris Agreement.  
Together with the Australian Conservation Foundation, we have been analysing Australia’s emissions profile and policies. This factsheet focuses on Australia’s vehicle fleet and outlines how it compares with other countries, breaks down the main sources of vehicle emissions and evaluates whether there are policies in place to decarbonise the sector.  
Together with the Australian Conservation Foundation, we have been analysing Australia’s emissions profile and policies. This factsheet focuses on Australia’s industry and outlines how it compares with other similar economies, breaks down where industry emissions come from and evaluates whether there are policies in place to decarbonise the sector.  
The European Union has recently published its Strategic Vision “A clean planet for all” along with the In-Depth Analysis supporting it. In it, the European Commission claims that an 80% reduction of the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 can be taken as being in line with the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal. In this paper, published by Fraunhofer Institute, we discuss how the Commission’s relabelling of the former “hold-below-2°C” pathways associated with the 2010 Cancun Agreements as the Paris Agreement temperature goal – “hold warming well-below 2°C, limit to 1.5°C ” is not correct. By design, the Paris long-term temperature goal is a strengthening of the former 2°C goal.  
The European Union‘s targets and policies are not yet compatible with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. This report, the second country assessment in the Climate Action Tracker's Scaling Up Climate Action Series, analyses areas where the European Union could accelerate its climate action. The report illustrates GHG emissions reductions from such actions, along with other benefits.  
With the Australian Conservation Foundation, Climate Analytics has been analysing Australia's emissions profile and policies. We have created some graphic factsheets that illustrate where Australia is compared with other countries, and clearly show how far behind Australia is compared to other major economies in terms of emissions and policies.  
This briefing addresses grave scientific concerns in relation to proposed geoengineering techniques such as solar radiation management (SRM). “Geoengineering” as used here does not refer to negative emissions technologies that remove CO2 from the atmosphere (carbon dioxide removal or CDR) as part of the energy system or through ecosystem restoration and afforestation or reforestation. Here we specifically address the risks posed by SRM.  
IPCC SR 1.5°C bolsters the case for pursuing the lower end of the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal, and makes clear that it is no longer sufficient to reduce emissions alone – CO2 will also need to be removed from the atmosphere, on a scale never previously attempted. Yet, is the international community prepared for the implementation of CDR options at this unprecedented scale? The report finds that while a number of reporting rules and accounting practices are already in place with direct applicability to the implementation of CDR options, many governance gaps remain.  
Climate impacts at 1.5°C and 2°C - Results of the HAPPI DE Project Klimafolgen bei 1,5°C und 2°C. The "HAPPI-DE" project has contributed to the efforts by the scientific community to provide targeted scientific input into the IPCC 1.5°C special report. Under the HAPPI-DE project, global and regional climate model simulations, as well as impact model simulations in the agriculture and water sector have been assessed resulting in 11 scientific publications.  
Integrated Assessment Models of climate change mitigation, assessed in IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (IPCC SR1.5), show a large spectrum of 1.5°C- compatible pathways that limit warming to this level during the century, or exceed it by only a limited amount of less than 0.1°C (“low overshoot”). This Climate Analytics submission to the Talanoa Dialogue, which unpacks in some detail the implications of these pathways.  
Germany needs to phase coal out of its electricity sector by 2030 to meet its obligations under the Paris Agreement. This is earlier than the dates discussed so far by the Coal Commission, a body established to come up with a coal exit plan by the end of 2018. If Germany follows the Paris Agreement compatible pathway we propose here, it can also make significant steps towards meeting its 2020 emission reduction targets – something seen as impossible at the moment. Under a planned and structured coal phase out, energy security and reliability of electricity supply is not expected to be a major concern and will be manageable. As well as reduced health impacts, a coal exit from electricity generation by 2030 in Germany will bring added benefits in job creation, helping to smooth the transition to a zero-carbon energy system.  
This article contains the review of scientific evidence of regional differences in climate hazards at 1.5°C and 2°C and provides an assessment of selected hotspots of climate change, including small islands as well as rural, urban, and coastal areas in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, that are particularly affected by the additional 0.5°C global mean temperature increase.  
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) models are used to evaluate the technological and economic feasibility of climate goals such as the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal to hold global warming well below 2˚C and pursue efforts to limit this warming to 1.5˚C above pre-industrial. The results of these models are assessed in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, and play a central role in the IPCC Special Report “Global Warming of 1.5°C” (SR1.5). This briefing sets out some of the important context and caveats in relation to understanding IAMs and their results, particularly in relation to the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.  
The stocktaking of science-based knowledge allowed on one hand to get a clear picture of the existing scientific knowledge on impacts, vulnerability, adaptation options and strategies available in Senegal for the three priority sectors. On the other hand, it allowed to identify the gaps for the availability and reliability of scientific information in each of these sectors. Based on the two stocktakings undertaken, it was possible to determine the additional information to be provided by the sectoral vulnerability studies.  
In 2017, many key developments in climate diplomacy, policy and science shared a common thread – mobilising more ambitious climate action – and this report details our contributions to this across all our areas of expertise.  
This technical note looks at the estimates of the remaining warming that have been used in the IPCC AR5 and in recent studies, and evaluates the consequences for carbon budget estimates to limit warming to 1.5°C.  
Japan stands at a crossroads ahead of its Presidency of the G20 in 2019. Its potential role as a leader of climate ambition and clean technology depends on it making the right decisions to establish a sunset for coal power generation. This shift must include both its domestic energy policy and its finance for coal technology overseas – a joint briefing by E3G and Climate Analytics.  
Decarbonising the transport sector, which accounted for 28% of global CO2 emissions in 2014,1 is crucial for the transition to a low-carbon economy in line with the Paris Agreement. Despite its significant contribution to global warming, the road freight transport sector is often neglected in government policies, according to the Climate Action Tracker’s latest memo in its decarbonisation series.  
The Climate Action Tracker has updated assessments of 23 of the 32 countries whose development on climate action it tracks. While some progress has been made since November, most governments’ policies are still not on track towards meeting their Paris Agreement commitments, many of which are in themselves far from sufficient to keep warming to the agreed 1.5˚C warming limit. The Climate Action Tracker's assessments point to an urgent need for governments to scale up both their policies and targets to bring them more in line with a pathway to limiting warming to 1.5˚C.  
Most countries need to urgently update their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to be in line with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. But even without considering the much-needed emission reductions this entails, rapid technology developments in key sectors over recent years make it an economic and political necessity to update NDCs as their underlying assumptions are outdated already today. This is good news for the Talanoa Dialogue as these cost reductions and already visible climate action can be the springboard for more ambitious NDCs in 2020.  
International climate policy uses global mean temperature rise limits as proxies for societally acceptable levels of climate change. These limits are informed by risk assessments which draw upon projections of climate impacts under various levels of warming. This article illustrates that indicators used to define limits of warming and those used to track the evolution of the Earth System under climate change are not directly comparable.  
To support implementation of the Paris Agreement, the new HAPPI ensemble of 20 bias-corrected simulations of four climate models was used to drive two global hydrological models in worlds approximately 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer than pre-industrial. Seven hydrological hazard indicators were analysed characterizing freshwater-related hazards for humans, freshwater biota and vegetation. The findings show that areas with either significantly wetter or drier conditions are smaller in the 1.5 °C world for all but one indicator. The incremental impact between 1.5 °C and 2 °C on high flows would be felt most by low income and lower middle income countries, the effect on soil moisture and low flows most by high income countries.  
Loss and damage refers to impacts of climate change that occur despite adaptation and mitigation efforts. This brief provides a background on loss and damage, its importance for the Caribbean, tools and methodologies to determine costs of loss and damage, and potential innovative financing mechanisms. The region has seen an increase in the number of recorded weather and climate hazards and resultant impacts on biophysical and human systems. As global temperatures continue to increase, Caribbean SIDS face significant levels of both economic and non-economic loss and damage.  
Climate Analytics’ submission to the Talanoa Dialogue summarises the latest scientific findings relating to the 1.5°C limit. It outlines what climate impacts are being experienced around the globe at the current level of warming of around 1°C, such as extreme weather events, more intense tropical cyclones, impacts on oceans systems and health. It also discusses the benefits of the 1.5°C limit in terms of avoided impacts, especially on the most vulnerable communities, and what is needed to limit warming to 1.5°C.  
This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. It is is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.  
The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has developed novel methods for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of agriculture and food security in a changing world. The present study aims to perform a proof of concept of the CGRA to demonstrate advantages and challenges of the proposed framework. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.  
Caribbean SIDS are among the most heavily indebted per capita developing countries in the world and are also highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Public debt significantly restricts capacity and fiscal space to build resilience to climate change and thus undermines debt sustainability and economic growth. Caribbean SIDS are tasked with addressing low and stagnated growth, high public debt and vulnerabilities to climate change impacts. This briefing looks at how debt for climate swaps may provide an avenue for SIDS to address debt challenges while also increasing resilience to climate change.  
As people around the world switch off their lights for “Earth Hour” this weekend, a new analysis shows the world could make huge reductions in global warming by simply adopting the highest existing energy related standards for lighting and appliances. This can be achieved at net zero costs for consumers and with substantial co-benefits to health.  
This study considers the impact on crop yields and yield variability in regions currently challenged by food insecurity. It assesses impacts of 1.5 °C versus 2.0 °C on yields of maize, pearl millet and sorghum in the West African Sudan Savanna using two crop models that were calibrated with common varieties from experiments in the region with management reflecting a range of typical sowing windows.  
Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. This study quantifies the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities.  
This study focuses on the place of forest governance in Cameroon's nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement and highlights the challenges related to the integration of land use in development and the implementation of national climate policies. It advocates for greater inclusion of forest governance in climate policies.  
Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. This study shows the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compares them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming.  
This article identifies and quantifies the 10 most important benchmarks for climate action to be taken by 2020–2025 to keep the window open for a 1.5°C-consistent GHG emission pathway. We conducted a comprehensive review of existing emissions scenarios, scanned all sectors and the respective necessary transitions, and distilled the most important short-term benchmarks for action in line with the long-term perspective of the required global low-carbon transition. Owing to the limited carbon budget, combined with the inertia of existing systems, global energy economic models find only limited pathways to stay on track for a 1.5°C world consistent with the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.  
There have been proposals for the UNFCCC to adopt a dual-term greenhouse gas accounting standard: 20-year GWPs alongside the presently accepted 100-year GWPs. It is argued that the advantage of such a change would be to more rapidly reduce short term warming and buy time for CO2 reductions. This briefing shows why these changes would be counterproductive and the benefits overstated.  
This briefing is the annual Climate Action Tracker estimate of global progress towards the Paris Agreement goals, with some positive and negative findings. While there is a significant improvement on climate action globally, despite US rollbacks, President Trump’s announced intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, has led to a significant deterioration in the effect of Paris Agreement commitments (NDCs)—by about 0.3°C.  
Following the string of high intensity tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin in 2017 and the devastating impacts on Small Island Developing States (SIDS), a number of questions have been raised about linkages between these cyclones and climate change. This briefing provides clarity on scientifically-supported connections between existing tropical cyclones and climate change. The briefing also summarises how climate change may affect tropical cyclones at increased global mean temperatures in the future and provides a summary of the observed socio-economic impacts of these extreme events on SIDS.  
This paper incorporates latest findings on Antarctic ice sheet dynamics into new sea level rise modelling, and pairs it with the new generation of scenarios – Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and compares them with outcomes for the previous generation of scenarios - Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), used in the last IPCC Assessment (AR5). It finds that without any mitigation, sea levels could rise by an average of 132 cm in 2100 relative to the 1986-2005 mean.  
The adoption of the 1.5°C long-term warming limit in the Paris Agreement made 1.5°C a ‘hot topic’ in the scientific community, with researchers eager to address this issue. Long-term warming limits have a decades-long history in international policy. To effectively inform the climate policy debate, geoscience research hence needs a core understanding of their legal and policy context. This article describes this context in detail, and illustrates its importance by showing the impact it can have on global carbon budget estimates.  
This special feature of the journal Regional Environmental Change examines biophysical impacts under different warming scenarios (1, 1.5, 2, and 4 °C warming) and considers scientifically derived development impacts to gain a better understanding of vulnerability to climate change. The main contributions to this special feature are five regional impact papers summarising climate impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean and Middle East and Northern Africa.  
This commentary in journal Nature Climate Change discusses how evidence from the observational climate record provides useful guidance in discriminating the climate impacts of half-degree warming increments, which is high on the science agenda since the adoption of the 1.5°C temperature limit in Paris Agreement.  
The Finkel Review was an opportunity to propose a science-based approach to the short and long-term development of Australia's electricity sector consistent with the low-carbon transformation required to meet the goals and obligations of the Paris Agreement. Unfortunately, should the government accept the minimum electricity sector pathway suggested by the Finkel Review, Australia would very likely not be able to meet its obligations under the Paris Agreement, which calls for countries to adopt measures to hold global warming well below 2°C and limit this to 1.5°C.  
This study focuses on the role of the South African state in environmental governance, with particular reference to transformations in political authority and processes of capital accumulation. The authors’ approach underscores the importance of analyzing state environmental efforts both empirically and normatively, in order to understand the underlying drivers of state policies that perpetuate or ameliorate environmental degradation. Given the tension between economic and ecological values at the heart of South Africa’s approach to mitigation, they evaluate South Africa’s performance on climate change mitigation policies and programs.  
This article provides a review of recent scientific literature on social vulnerability to climate change, aiming to determine which social and demographic groups, across a wide range of geographical locations, are the most vulnerable to climate change impacts within four well-being dimensions: health, safety, food security, and displacement.  
This report elaborates a strategy for phasing out coal in the European Union and its member states and provides a science-based shut-down schedule of coal power plants at the individual unit level, in line with the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal.  
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the UNFCCC to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and on related global greenhouse-gas emission pathways. Many current experiments in, for example, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), are not specifically designed for informing this report. This article documents the design of the half a degree additional warming, projections, prognosis and impacts (HAPPI) experiment. HAPPI provides a framework for the generation of climate data describing how the climate, and in particular extreme weather, might differ from the present day in worlds that are 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer than pre-industrial conditions.  
The Paris Agreement long-term global temperature goal refers to two global warming levels: well below 2°C and 1.5°C above preindustrial. Regional climate signals at specific global warming levels, and especially the differences between 1.5°C and 2°C, are not well constrained, however. In particular, methodological challenges related to the assessment of such differences have received limited attention. This article reviews alternative approaches for identifying regional climate signals associated with global temperature limits, and evaluates the extent to which they constitute a sound basis for impacts analysis.  
This United Nations Development Programme report, commissioned by the Climate Vulnerable Forum, focuses on the benefits and opportunities of limiting warming to 1.5°C, as enshrined in the Paris Agreement, in terms of economic growth, employment, avoided climate impacts, energy security, access and imports and health.  
Ethnic divides play a major role in many armed conflicts around the world and might serve as predetermined conflict lines following rapidly emerging societal tensions arising from disruptive events like natural disasters. We find evidence in global datasets that risk of armed-conflict outbreak is enhanced by climate-related disaster occurrence in ethnically fractionalized countries. Although we find no indications that environmental disasters directly trigger armed conflicts, our results imply that disasters might act as a threat multiplier in several of the world’s most conflict-prone regions.  
A new analysis of the scientific and policy aspects of the 1.5°C temperature limit in the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal has identified a number of important areas that require more scientific research. The analysis, written by a team of scientists who have published key research papers on the science, impacts and policy aspects of the 1.5˚C limit, is a centrepiece of a collection by Nature Climate Change, Nature Geoscience and Nature on 'Targeting 1.5°C'  
The Green Climate Fund Board met for the 13th time 28-30 June 2016 in Songdo, Republic of Korea. This report outlines the key messages for policymakers from Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs).  
The latest in UNEP’s Adaptation Gap Report series looks at the difference between adaptation costs in developing countries and funds currently available - the 'adaptation finance gap'. The report identifies trends and highlights challenges associated with measuring progress towards fulfilling the adaptation finance gap, while informing national and international efforts to advance adaptation. It analyses the ‘adaptation finance gap’ against the background of the provisions laid out in the Paris Agreement, and benefits from the insights included in the INDCs.  
This article is a first comprehensive assessment of key climate impacts for the policy relevant warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. It finds substantial impact differences in intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, regional water availability and agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. The increase in climate impacts is particularly pronounced in tropical and sub-tropical regions.  
Following adoption of the Paris Agreement, a number of questions have been raised related to signature, ratification and entry into force of the Paris Agreement, some practical, some strategic. This briefing looks at issues that relate to the possibility of early entry into force, the status of Party INDCs both pre-ratification and post-ratification, protection of the Paris Agreement's 1.5 degree temperature limitation goal, and the implications of decision 1/CP.21 on the Paris Agreement's treatment of loss and damage.  
The concept of non-economic loss and damage (NELD) captures the impacts of climate change that are hard to quantify and often go unnoticed by the outside world, such as the loss of traditional ways of living, cultural heritage and biodiversity. It also encapsulates losses whose valuation raises ethical concerns – loss of life and human health. This discussion paper offers a clarification of the concept and analyses the challenges in addressing NELD.  
Accepted estimates of how much carbon we can still burn by the end of this century and keep temperature rise to below 2°C range from 590 to 2390 billion tons of carbon dioxide. The high end of this estimate does not take into account warming by non-CO2 emissions and was never intended to be used to address a real-world policy question. Consequently, this study finds that the most appropriate carbon budget estimate for keeping warming to below 2°C is in the range of 590-1240 billion tons of carbon dioxide.  
Non-economic loss and damage (NELD) has emerged as a new concept in the negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It refers to the negative impacts of climate change that are difficult to measure or quantify. The value of NELD cannot easily be expressed in monetary terms, which has left them mostly neglected in climate-risk and cost estimates. This briefing paper looks at the definitions, challenges and policy implication of NELD.  
This paper synthesizes what is known about the physical and biophysical impacts of climate change and their consequences for societies and development under different levels of global warming in Central Asia. Projections show mean temperatures increasing by up to 6.5 °C compared to pre-industrial level by the end of this century across the region. Climate change could mostly decrease crop yields, challenging food security, but in more northern regions there could also be positive effects. Studies on climate change impacts on energy systems are scarce and yield conflicting results, but the more regional study shows decreasing prospects for hydropower.  
The term ‘climate neutrality’ is currently resonating in the climate policy arena and is included in the collective mitigation goal (Article 3.1) of the draft Paris Agreement. A close look at this relatively new and scientifically ill defined term and its potential implications reveals a fundamental risk that this term will be used to undermine efforts to reduce CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions and be used to introduce dangerous geo-engineering approaches into the climate regime.  
The Climate Action Tracker’s analysis released during COP21 in Paris finds that if all coal plants in the pipeline were to be built, by 2030, emissions from coal power would be 400% higher than what is consistent with a 2°C pathway. Even with no new construction, in 2030, emissions from coal-fired power generation would still be more than 150% higher than what is consistent with holding warming below 2°C.  
This paper analyses “fair and adequate” emission reduction ranges for 2025, 2030 and 2050 for Brazil, India and South Africa, largest economies and a set of African countries (part of MAPS - Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios Programme). This analysis provides insight into the key differences between a wide range of effort sharing models, criteria, their proxy metrics and the most important assumptions that influence countries’ emissions allowances under different equity regimes. This analysis provides insight into the key differences between a wide range of effort sharing models, criteria, their proxy metrics and the most important assumptions that influence countries’ emissions allowances under different equity regimes.  
This document provides briefing points and explains why initial and successive 5 year commitment periods for all Parties are a necessary element of the new agreement to help ensure that the 1.5/2°C goal is met, and how a 10-year commitment period would in fact fail to provide the long-term stability and certainty that Parties seek. It steps through evidence from scientific, economic, regulatory and political perspectives.  
This document provides key points on risks to ecosystems, food security and sustainable development associated with 1.5°C warming. It also provides responses to arguments commonly made against 1.5°C and provides the scientific evidene for each point made.  
This briefing note outlines the scientific conditions under which warming can be limited to well below 2°C over the 21st century, and return to below 1.5°C by 2100. It provides a scientific overview of the science on some critical mitigation technologies, like bioenergy, carbon capture and storage, and their combination – BECCS. It also contains counter arguments to claims that 1.5°C scenarios undermine food security through including large scale bioenergy deployment. The considerations in this briefing are based on the findings of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5), the 2014 UNEP Emissions Gap Report, the Report of the UNFCCC Structured Expert Dialogue (SED), as well as the recent scientific literature.  
The issue of a fair distribution of the burden in the fight against climate change has been the major point of contention since the beginning of the climate negotiations in the 1990s. Although a number of different approaches of effort distribution emerged in the meantime, many of them reflected the interests of the stakeholders developing them. As a result different weight has been given to different aspects, such as historic responsibility, current emission levels or the capability to reduce these emissions. This report presents different approaches to the distribution of the mitigation efforts and compares their results to the contributions that some governments submitted to the UNFCCC ahead of the climate conference in Paris.  
Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. This paper provides an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss- The results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5°C and 2°C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. This article has been accepted.  
The Climate Action Tracker’s assessment of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) submitted to the UNFCCC ahead of the October 1 deadline, which finds that, if these climate plans were to be fully implemented, they would bring the projected warming to 2.7°C – an improvement of 0.4˚C since the last assessment of pledges at the Lima talks in December 2014.  
On 11 August 2015, Australia submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC). The Climate Action Tracker rates Australia’s INDC 2030 target to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 26–28% from 2005 levels including land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) by 2030 as “inadequate.” After accounting for LULUCF, this target is equivalent to a range of around 5% below to 5% above 1990 levels of GHG emissions excluding LULUCF in the year 2030.  
With the signature by the Government of Japan to its contribution agreement with the Green Climate Fund (GCF) now almost 60 per cent of the pledges made to the Fund at its first pledging conference in November 2014 are secured through legally binding contribution agreements. Crossing the threshold of 50 per cent of the pledges covered by these agreements gives the GCF Board the authority to start allocating funding to concrete project and programme proposals. This is a major milestone in the evolution of the Fund and successfully completes a four-year design phase that has shaped the operational policies and procedures of the GCF.  
Many impacts projected for a global warming level of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels may exceed the coping capacities of particularly vulnerable countries. Therefore, many countries advocate limiting warming to below 1.5 °C. This article contains an analysis of integrated energy–economy–environment scenarios that keep warming to below 1.5 °C by 2100. It finds that in such scenarios, energy-system transformations are in many aspects similar to 2 °C-consistent scenarios, but show a faster scale-up of mitigation action in most sectors, leading to observable differences in emission reductions in 2030 and 2050. The move from a 2 °C- to a 1.5 °C-consistent world will be achieved mainly through additional reductions of CO2. This implies an earlier transition to net zero carbon emissions worldwide, to be achieved between 2045 and 2060. Energy efficiency and stringent early reductions are key to retain a possibility for limiting warming to below 1.5 °C by 2100. The window for achieving this goal is small and rapidly closing.  
This briefing paper analyses the available information in the 2014 UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2014 (‘EGR’) and the IPCC AR5 to produce recommended benchmark emission levels for 2020, 2025 and 2030. We evaluate the implications of the data in the 2014 UNEP EGR and the IPCC AR5 for benchmark emission levels that can be used to assess whether the aggregate level of pledges put forward for 2025 and 2030 - in the context of the ADP negotiations - are consistent with limiting warming below 2°C, and with limiting warming below a 1.5°C increase above preindustrial. We also review the outcome of the 2014 UNEP EGR in relation to the emissions gap for 2020, 2025, and 2030. Results are put in the context of the 2013 UNEP EGR and of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and differences explained.  
While the GCF is getting ready to disburse resources, it still awaits authorisation to start committing its resources to specific projects: According to the Fund’s contribution policies, this commitment authority is triggered when contributors realise their pledges through signing official legally binding contribution agreements for 50 percent (USD 4.7 billion) of the total pledges made to the GCF. The following briefing note provides an update on the status of contribution agreements signed by contributor countries as of 30 April 2015 - the Fund's initial deadline to reach the 50 percent threshold.  
This Climate Action Tracker Update describes a new method to assess “comparable efforts” and the “fair share” of governments’ national greenhouse gas reduction proposals. Such a comparison is essential for the successful completion of an agreement on climate change in Paris in December this year, as some governments have made their offers conditional on comparable action by others.  
Produced in collaboration with the African Climate Finance Hub, the report says deep global emissions reductions are the best way to head off Africa’s crippling adaptation costs. It also finds that the continent’s domestic resources are insufficient to respond to projected impacts, but would be important to complement international funding for African countries – including meeting the Cancun climate finance commitments by 2020. The report also explores the extent to which African nations can contribute to closing the adaptation gap – especially in the area of identifying the resources that will be needed.  
Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO2). Halting global warming thus requires virtually zero annual CO2 emissions at some point. Policymakers have now incorporated this concept in the negotiating text for a new global climate agreement, but confusion remains about concepts like carbon neutrality, climate neutrality, full decarbonization, and net zero carbon or net zero greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions. This article clarifies these concepts, discusses their appropriateness to serve as a long-term global benchmark for achieving temperature targets, and provides a detailed quantification.  
This paper synthesizes what is known about the physical and biophysical impacts of climate change and their consequences for societies and development under different levels of global warming in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Projections show increasing mean temperatures by up to 4.5 °C compared to pre-industrial by the end of this century across LAC. This paper concludes that LAC will be severely affected by climate change, even under lower levels of warming, due to the potential for impacts to occur simultaneously and compound one another. This article has been accepted.  
The first UNEPAdaptation Gap Report serves as a preliminary assessment of global adaptation gaps in finance, technology and knowledge, and lays out a framework for future work on better defining and bridging these gaps.  
The Climate Action Tracker's initial assessment of the recent announcements by the United States and China’s new pledges and proposals on emissions reductions for 2025 and 2030, in the context of the present international negotiations for a new climate agreement to be adopted at the end of 2015.  
UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2014 is the fifth in a series that examines whether the pledges made by countries are on track to meet the internationally agreed under 2°C target. It is produced by 38 leading scientists from 22 research groups across 14 countries.  
Together, China and the US emit about 35% of today’s greenhouse gas emissions. Current global climate change action is insufficient to limit warming below 2°C. By improving action of China and the US to global best practice, these two largest emitters could decrease domestic emissions to a level compatible with 2°C and together close 23% of the 2020 emissions gap. For 2030, this would mean a decrease in emissions below current global policy projections by 10%.  
A rapid phase out of coal as an electricity source by 2050 would reduce warming by half a degree, according to the Climate Action Tracker, in an update released today ahead of the Ban ki-Moon climate summit. The Climate Action Tracker, put together by research organisations Climate Analytics, Ecofys, and the Pik Potsdam Institute, has calculated that under current Government policies, the world is on track to warm by 3.7°C by 2100.  
The “Green Paper" foresees a future strong growth in coal use globally over the next several decades arguing that “Most energy analysts confirm that coal will continue to be a major source of global energy for decades to come”. In particular, the Green Paper assumes rapid increases in coal demand from Asian economies and proposes to align Australian government policies to facilitate accelerated approval of developments to support this.  
The report, produced for the German environmental protection agency Umweltbundesamt (UBA), evaluates available options for a variety of aspects around the differentiation of mitigation commitments. We find that for the level of participation, the selection of commitment types, and choice of effort-sharing approaches there is no silver bullet. A portfolio approach that incorporates multiple options may be most suited to ensure environmental effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and political feasibility.  
Africa is anticipated to be confronted with the severest adverse effects of human-induced climate change, compared to most other regions of the world, due to a combination of particularly severe projected impacts and relatively low adaptive capacity (e.g. IPCC AR4, World Bank 2013). The need for adaptation is expected to be high in Africa, especially in light of the existing deficit in adaptation to current climate variability and climate change. However, under any scenario of global mitigation and strong regional adaptation efforts, considerable adverse effects of climate change on Africa will remain, resulting in loss and damage.  
For the operation of the GCF, it will be essential to define how the objective to promote paradigm shift towards low-emission and climate-resilient development pathways – as specified in the Governing instrument – will be operationalised. The paper provides some detailed reflections for mitigation and adaptation to stimulate ongoing discussion.  
The emissions gap in 2020 is the difference between emission levels in 2020 consistent with meeting climate targets, and levels expected in that year if country pledges and commitments are met. As it becomes less and less likely that the emissions gap will be closed by 2020, the world will have to rely on more difficult, costlier and riskier means after 2020 of keeping global average temperature increase below 2°C. If the emissions gap is not closed, or significantly narrowed, by 2020, the door to many options limiting the temperature increase to 1.5°C at the end of this century will be closed.  
The Climate Action Tracker has spent recent months researching the world’s 24 biggest emitters, gathering data from a wide range of sources and today released its full assessment of their current pledges and policy pathways. These are the numbers that have been used to arrive at the 3.7degC policy projection.  
This paper briefly highlights some of the significant and fundamental differences in objectives, terminology, approach, source of financing, legal nature and – importantly – responsibility under the UNFCCC and the Hyogo Framework. In view of these differences, the paper urges caution in reliance on HFA processes to address the range of concern raised under the UNFCCC on loss and damage.  
This report shows that the estimated emissions gap in 2020 for a “likely” chance of staying below the 2°C target is large, but it is still technically possible to close this gap through concerted and rapid action.  
Briefing for AirClim on Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) under the Kyoto Protocol and Marrakech Accords.