Xi Jinping and Barack Obama’s ratification, ahead of the G20 meeting in China, shows that the momentum to address climate change is strong as ever, making the possibility of the Paris Agreement’s entry into force by the end of this year or early next ever more likely.

On the 12th of December 2015, the plenary halls at Le Bourget on the outskirts of Paris erupted in standing ovations, tears and cheers – a turmoil of emotions of relief and euphoria.

The Paris Agreement, adopted by 195 governments after a two-week negotiation marathon, was a remarkable achievement and a landmark in the global fight against climate change, rattling off the shock and lethargy following the failure of Copenhagen.

But since the wave of euphoria, detractors set in, with many assuming the Agreement would not be operational until 2020. Luckily, the world seems determined to prove them otherwise.

To recap the rulebook: The Paris Agreement will automatically enter into force 30 days after it has been ratified by at least 55 countries, and by countries representing at least 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Both conditions have to be met before the agreement is legally binding.

In April this year, the Paris Agreement opened for signature and ratification (read more about the difference between the two).

Since then, our ratification tracker followed not just the actual ratification but also the statements made by government officials about their intention to ratify – and when.

With China and the US (together accounting for 37.98% of global emissions) keeping their promises made during the signing ceremony in April to ratify the Paris Agreement by the end of the year, the spirit of Paris proves to be alive and kicking.

Including the US and China, 26 parties have ratified the Agreement as of 3 September 2016.

Diagram indicating Paris Agreement ratification process as of Sept 2016

Another 32 countries have signalled their intent to do so by the end of 2016, bringing the possibility of an early entry into force within reach by meeting both conditions (number of countries and share of global emissions).

As of 28 November 114 Parties have ratified the Paris Agreement. — As of 28 November 114 Parties have ratified (dark blue). Climate Analytics projects that at least another 7 Parties (light blue) are likely to ratify the Agreement by the end of 2016.

With two of the world’s top emitters showing their determination to combat climate change, the momentum is likely to continue and boost participation by other governments.

Investors managing over USD 13 trillion in assets also urged G20 leaders to swiftly ratify the agreement, reminding them of their “responsibility to work with the private sector”, stating that the “Paris Agreement on climate change provides a clear signal to investors that the transition to the low-carbon, clean energy economy is inevitable and already underway”.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon will hold an event during the UN General Assembly in September, which will allow governments to deposit their instruments of ratification to “keep up momentum on the development agenda and climate change” and to “bring that Agreement into force this year.”

Governments have shown in Paris that they are ready to “converge onto a common path, onto a common direction of travel” towards a low-carbon economy. As our work with the Climate Action Tracker has shown, the current climate pledges by governments are certainly not yet sufficient to take us anywhere near the agreed long-term temperature goal of 1.5°C, instead we projected they would keep warming to 2.7˚C, but this ratification is the first step.

Climate Action Tracker projected temperature pathways. — Climate Action Tracker projected global temperature pathways.

Paris achieved a common direction for all to pursue “efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels” and “aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible”. The latter means zero global greenhouse-gas emissions by mid-century to be consistent with the 1.5°C efforts.

We look to Governments to accelerate climate action and get us on a path to that Paris Agreement temperature goal. Their first step must be to ratify it.

The 1.5℃ limit

Comments

Why maintaining ambition for 1.5°C is critical

"One of the key things about this whole problem is that the only way to solve it is that we need to rapidly reduce and phase out fossil fuels. That can’t wait a decade. We need to be making substantial reductions this decade," Bill Hare said in address to the Australia Institute’s Climate Integrity Summit on 20 March 2024.

Why 2024 needs to deliver on climate finance for South Asia and the world

To get climate action on track, 2024 needs to be the year we get moving on finance. We take a look at the current climate finance needs of South Asia and what to expect in the year ahead.

Evidence from Berlin makes the case for urban green spaces: up to 3°C cooler in a heatwave

As global temperatures continue to rise, the safety and well-being of citizens within urban environments becomes increasingly important. Our recent work in the Berlin-Brandenburg area on adaptation to heat stress hammers home some truths – greener is better.

Will 2024 be the year emissions start falling?

The IPCC says we need to peak global greenhouse gas emissions before 2025 to limit warming to 1.5ºC. We dive into the latest research to see if this deadline can be met.

The IPCC set to respond to growing demand for climate science to inform policy

Last week in Istanbul, climate scientists and governments met in the sixtieth session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to agree a plan for its seventh, and potentially most consequential report cycle. The outcome means the IPCC will most probably take a more streamlined approach to its seventh cycle.

COP28 made strong progress on mountains – here’s what to expect in 2024

In 2024, mountains will feature strongly in a number of climate processes, such as the the expert dialogue on mountains at the climate talks in Bonn this June.

"The only GST that matters for 1.5°C": key takeaways from the first global stocktake at COP28

We breakdown the key takeaways from the first global stocktake (GST) since the Paris Agreement and how it sets the stage for the next two years in climate.

COP28: social and economic metrics could serve as stepping stone for Global Goal on Adaptation

As work on shaping the Global Goal on Adaptation culminates this week at COP28, we explore if social and economic metrics could be used as proxies for a country’s ability to adapt.

Safeguards and exit points for the World Bank as host of the Loss and Damage Fund

An agreement was reached to establish the World Bank as the interim host of the Loss and Damage Fund. Developing countries signed up to this on certain conditions. We unpack the safeguards put in place and look at the three points at which the Fund could exit the World Bank.

8 things to know about the state of climate action today

A major new report looks at climate action across all parts of the global economy to find that only electric vehicle sales are on track for 1.5°C.

Beetaloo gas field is a climate bomb. How did CSIRO modelling make it look otherwise?

The fossil gas industry is gearing up for a truly enormous new fracking project in the Northern Territory’s Beetaloo Basin that could undo all Australia's efforts to cut emissions.

From droughts to floods: how Eastern African countries are responding to the rising El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole

The Horn of Africa looks set to go from one disaster to another as floods intensified by a rising El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole are predicted to follow a prolonged drought. We take a look at climate policies in the region and what countries are doing to prepare for compound extreme events.

About us

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Comment

The spirit of Paris — alive and kicking