The Climate Action Tracker has analysed the US INDC in full, confirming there is little change from the commitments announced in late 2014.
The US plan falls in the CAT’s “medium” range – the least ambitious end of a 2°C global emissions pathway. This means that other countries would have to make more comparable effort than the US to keep the world on that pathway.
According to the CAT analysis, the US will need to implement additional policies to reach its proposed targets. The planned policies (e.g. the targets in the Climate Action Plan), if fully implemented, are sufficient to meet the 2020 pledge.
However, the US will have to implement additional policies to reach the 2025 pledge, which requires a faster reduction rate than the rate up to 2020.
“The political significance of the US cannot be underestimated. If the US were to move to a more ambitious target, it would have a big impact globally,” said Bill Hare of Climate Analytics.
“The US target for 2025 is in line with effort sharing approaches that focus on capability and costs. However, approaches that focus on equal cumulative emissions and historic responsibility would require the US to make much more stringent reductions,” said Niklas Höhne of NewClimate Institute.
The CAT is now analysing Russia’s INDC, which it will post on its INDC tracking page.