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The third report in the Turn Down the Heat series assesses climate risks in Latin American and the Caribbean, Middle East and North Africa and Europe and Central Asia.

We find evidence in global datasets that risk of armed-conflict outbreak is enhanced by climate-related disaster occurrence in ethnically fractionalised countries. Although we find no indications that environmental disasters directly trigger armed conflicts, our results imply that disasters might act as a threat multiplier in several of the world’s most conflict-prone regions.

This article is a first comprehensive assessment of key climate impacts for the policy relevant warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

This briefing paper examines the overall mitigation pledges made under the Copenhagen Accord against the perspective of limiting warming to either the 2°C or 1.5°C goals, and looks at which levels of mitigation levels are needed, before concluding with an initial discussion of the implications for Africa