Country briefing: United States of America
The United States needs to grow wind and solar capacity almost five times by 2030, reaching almost 1400 GW of installed capacity in the central benchmark presented here. The Inflation Reduction Act is helping to accelerate wind and solar deployment, but more would need to be done to ensure that the United States achieves its target of a clean power sector by 2035.
The US is the second-highest global emitter, with per capita emissions double the global average in 2023.
Electricity accounts for about a quarter of total GHG emissions (excl. LULUCF), with 60% of electricity coming from fossil fuels (42% from fossil gas). US power sector emissions peaked in 2007 and have steadily declined since 2010 due to coal-to-gas shifting and renewables deployment.
In 2022, electricity supply from renewables overtook coal and nuclear power for the first time, making them the second largest source of electricity generation after fossil gas.
The Biden Administration set a carbon-free electricity system target for 2035, which aligns with our benchmarks. Power sector emissions must rapidly reduce to reach this target.
This report examines the wind and solar capacity installation the US needs for a 1.5ºC compatible pathway, aligning with the goal of tripling global renewables capacity by 2030.
Key findings
To meet the 1.5°C benchmark, the US needs to increase wind and solar capacity by 3x and6x respectively by 2030, on the road to phasing out fossil fuels in the power sector by 2035.
Beyond ambitious targets, the main gap is in the actual build-up of wind and solar capacity. Wind and solar generation needs to increase 4-5x from 2022 levels by 2030 to be 1.5°C compatible. This means almost 1400 TWh of solar and 1600 TWh of wind. Policies at federal and state levels are needed to drive build up at the scale and speed required.
The period until 2030 is crucial to stay on track for a 1.5°C compatible pathway. Despite recent progress, the pace of annual capacity installations must accelerate significantly in the remainder of this decade –to reach our benchmarks, wind and solar capacity additions need to more than triple compared to the last three years.
While historical wind and solar capacity additions are below what is required, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) may boost wind and solar deployment in the remainder of this decade.
