Country briefing: South Africa

South Africa has an abundant potential for wind and solar deployment. However, at present the electricity system is dominated by coal, which provided 83% of electricity generation in 2023.

After the 2024 elections, a new South African government can set a new direction for the South African energy transition. This direction will also be needed as countries are requested to submit new 2035 climate targets to the UNFCCC in early 2025.

In this report, we explore the level of wind and solar that South Africa would need to install as part of a global 1.5ºC compatible pathway. Our benchmarks are also compatible with tripling renewables capacity by 2030.

Key findings

South Africa’s wind and solar generation needs to grow six to ten times by 2030 to align with 1.5ºC, reaching 80–145 TWh of wind and solar.

Almost 70 GW of wind and solar would be needed by 2030 (49 GW of solar and 16 GW of wind).

A rapid rollout of renewables could help meet electricity demand and provide reliable, zero-carbon electricity to South Africans.

However, it will require large-scale investment to help phase down coal power, accelerate renewables deployment, and drive grid expansion. International support will be key in supporting the energy transition via climate finance, some of which could be provided by the JETP.