Country briefing: Mexico

Power supply is Mexico’s largest greenhouse gas emitting sector.

Mexican electricity supply is highly dependent on fossil fuels (77% in 2023). Natural gas is the dominant fuel (58%), followed by oil (9%). Coal (8%) is already phasing out.

To meet the 1.5ºC target, Mexico needs to significantly reduce the use of fossil fuels while coping with electricity demand growth. Wind and solar power will play a key role.

Recent policies have increased support for gas-fired electricity generation and discontinued renewable energy support mechanisms such as tenders, causing a slowdown in new wind and solar installations.

A change in government could reinstate renewable energy support policies, although it is likely that support for gas generation will continue, maintaining policies from the previous administration.

Key findings

This report examines the wind and solar capacity installation Mexico needs for a 1.5ºC compatible pathway, aligning with the goal of tripling renewables by 2030.

Future electricity expansion should focus on wind and solar. Wind and solar generation in Mexico need to increase around six times by 2030, compared to 2022 levels, to be 1.5ºC compatible.

Projected wind and solar rollout in Mexico falls short of benchmarks, with a 2030 capacity gap of nearly 58 GW for solar and 11 GW for wind under current policies. Both need significant growth to align with benchmarks.

Mexico would require around 97 GW of wind and solar to be installed by 2030 (19 GW and 78 GW, respectively) according to our benchmarks.

Despite its current low levels, our model sees solar energy surpassing wind in power generation in 2030, 2040 and 2050, in line with country-level studies.