Country briefing: Indonesia

In 2022, 80% of Indonesia's electricity was sourced from fossil fuels. Per capita emissions were below the global average.

With rising electricity demand over the past two decades –growing 7% annually from 2015 to 2019 –the country has turned to coal and gas to meet its energy requirements.

Hydro is the main clean energy source in the power mix (8%). Wind and solar contributed only 0.2% in 2023.

Indonesia targets a 34% RE share in its power mix by 2030 under its Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), with power emissions peaking at 250 MtCO2by 2030 and reaching net-zero by 2050. However, this excludes a significant off-grid captive coal pipeline.

As the country significantly increases its wind and solar capacities, its archipelago nature may pose challenges for integrating high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE).

This report examines the wind and solar capacity installation Indonesia needs for a 1.5ºC compatible pathway, aligning with the goal of tripling renewables by 2030

Key findings

For Indonesia to meet electricity demand growth while transitioning away from fossil fuels, 77 GW of solar and 29 GW of wind by 2030 is needed.

Electricity demand is expected to increase by 1.4x in 2030, 3.2x in 2040, and 4.5x in 2050, compared to 2022 levels. Wind and solar (alongside other renewables such as geothermal) can help meet the growing demand –115 TWh of solar and 100 TWh of wind are needed by 2030.

Indonesia has enough wind and solar potential to drive the transition. By 2050, around two-thirds of electricity could be provided by wind and solar.

Meeting captive electricity demand from industrial sites would further boost the need for wind and solar and, consequently, additional international financial support.

While our modelling finds solar power will generate more electricity than wind, our results indicate a more balanced split between wind and solar compared to country-level studies, which show a significant emphasis on solar power alone.