Country briefing: China

China is rolling out renewables faster than any other country in the world. 2024 could mark a turning point, with Chinese power sector emissions on the brink of peaking and beginning a structural decline.

However, to align with 1.5ºC, China needs to not only peak emissions but achieve sustained and rapid reductions in emissions thereafter. The need to substantially displace fossil generation while meeting growing electricity demand means that wind and solar deployment will need to further accelerate.

In this report, we look at national studies and global energy system models to assess how much China’s wind and solar capacity needs to grow to align with the global goal to triple renewables by 2030 and the Paris Agreement’s warming limit.

Key findings

China’s wind and solar generation needs to grow between five and six times by 2030 to align with 1.5ºC.

This equates to 6600–7700 TWh of wind and solar generation in 2030, up from almost 1200 TWh in 2022.

4.5 TW of new wind and solar would be needed by 2030 (2.9 TW solar, 1.6 TW wind).

Despite impressive growth, the rollout of solar and wind needs to accelerate further to align with 1.5°C and drive reductions in emissions post-peaking.

China’s wind capacity is on course to more than double by 2030 but needs to more than quadruple to meet the Paris goal.