Country briefing: Australia
Australia’s wind and solar generation under current policies is set to grow 2.5 times by 2030, but it would need to grow four to five times by 2030 from 2022 to align with 1.5˚C. Almost 170 GW of wind and solar capacity would be needed by 2030.
Australia has abundant potential for wind and solar. At the same time, it is heavily dependent on coal, which still provided almost two-thirds of electricity generation in Australia in 2023.
The Australian Government has set a target of achieving 82% renewable electricity by 2030.
In this report, we look at national studies and global energy system models to assess how much Australia’s wind and solar capacity needs to grow to align with the global goal to triple renewables by 2030 and the Paris Agreement’s 1.5ºC warming limit.
What we found
Australia’s wind and solar generation needs to grow between four and five times by 2030 to align with 1.5ºC. This equates to 280–330 TWh of wind and solar generation in 2030, up from 64 TWh in 2022.
Almost 170 GW of new wind and solar would be needed by 2030 (120 GW solar, 45 GW wind).
Australia’s current rollout of wind and solar is not progressing fast enough to achieve this. Under current policies and market conditions, only half of the solar and 60% of the wind needed to align with 1.5ºC will be installed by 2030.
