Publications

This report analyses the potential for changing track after 2020, from an insufficient global reductionby 2020, to two emission pathways that imply a reasonable chance to stay below 2°C and 1.5°C respectively.

We investigate the qualitative, functional relationship between the likelihood of achieving a normative target and the costs of climate-change mitigation. In contrast to the example of exponentially rising costs for lowering concentration levels, we show that the mitigation costs rise proportionally to the likelihood of meeting a temperature target, across a range of concentration levels.