Publications

This paper explores a wide range of air-pollutant emissions over the twenty-first century consistent with the global CO₂ paths of the RCPs.

The emissions gap in 2020 is the difference between emission levels in 2020 consistent with meeting climate targets, and levels expected in that year if country pledges and commitments are met. As it becomes less and less likely that the emissions gap will be closed by 2020, the world will have to rely on more difficult, costlier and riskier means after 2020 of keeping global average temperature increase below 2°C.

The Climate Action Tracker has spent recent months researching the world’s 24 biggest emitters, gathering data from a wide range of sources and today released its full assessment of their current pledges and policy pathways. These are the numbers that have been used to arrive at the 3.7°C policy projection.

The Climate Action Tracker shows that implemented government policies will lead to warming of 3.7°C by the end of this century, about 0.6°C higher than that under the Copenhagen pledges.