This summary of the key messages for West Africa from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL) was produced in the context of Climate Analytics' IMPACT project.

An international scientific workshop was held from 27 to 28 May 2019 at the WASCAL Competence Centre in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, as part of the IMPACT project. The workshop was organized by Climate Analytics and WASCAL in collaboration with the regional partner institutions, ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States), CILSS/AGHRYMET (Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel/Regional Agro-Hydro-Meteorological Centre) and UEMOA (West African Economic and Monetary Union), under the aegis of the Ministry of Environment, Green Economy and Climate Change, the Permanent Secretariat of the National Council for Sustainable Development of Burkina Faso. The workshop focused on West Africa's engagement in the IPCC.

This summary responds to a direct outcome of the workshop, namely the wish expressed by participants to have a complete overview of the main messages and paragraphs relevant for the West African region in this IPCC report, and is intended to be a scientific reference for the different stakeholders in the region.

Executive Summary

The risks associated with the impacts of climate change on human activities and terrestrial ecosystems increase as global average temperatures rise. This is reflected in an increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves in most parts of the world, and droughts in most African countries. Climate change has also amplified the extent and intensity of desertification in some drylands in recent decades, as well as land degradation and food security at the global level. In tropical latitudes, rising temperatures affect agricultural productivity by reducing the yields of some crops. These risks related to desertification, land degradation and food security are expected to continue to increase as global warming persists.

Agriculture, forestry and other land uses (AFOLU) remain a significant net source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, contributing to about 22% of anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) combined in CO2 equivalents between 2007 and 2016. Land degradation leads to a reduction in carbon storage rates by terrestrial ecosystems.

Many land-use measures that contribute to adaptation to climate change and the reduction of GHG emissions can also contribute to combating desertification and land degradation, as well as to improving food security. Some measures, such as reforestation and bioenergy development, are mitigation options that require land conversion. If they were implemented on a large scale, this could lead to short-term carbon losses and increases in land use competition, with negative consequences for food security, desertification, land degradation and adaptation. Sustainable land management (SLM), including forest land, is an adaptation option that can prevent and reduce land degradation, maintain land productivity and sometimes reverse the adverse effects of climate change. Investments in SLM, land rehabilitation and dryland rehabilitation have a positive economic impact.

Even with the implementation of SLM, the limits of adaptation, compared to the combined effects of climate change, land degradation and desertification, can be reached in some situations. Land productivity losses may, for example, be the result of irreversible forms of desertification. Better soil management can offset 5 to 20% of current global anthropogenic GHG emissions. Recommended measures to facilitate the implementation of practices that avoid, reduce or reverse land degradation include land rehabilitation, tax incentives, payment for ecosystem services, integrated landscape planning, farmer networks and rural advisory services.

Reducing GHG emissions quickly and ambitiously in all sectors would reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems and the associated costs, the dependence on the deployment of mitigation measures requiring land conversion to achieve climate objectives (as well as associated negative impacts on food security, desertification, land degradation and adaptation that such conversion would entail), and would increase the prospects for sustainable development.

Climate impacts and risks

Publications

Spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for overshoot pathways

This study presents a new dataset of annual temperature projections for different overshoot pathways (when the 1.5 °C of global warming limit is exceeded). The data offers a unique opportunity to study local and regional climate change impacts of a range of overshoot scenarios, including when temperature thresholds might be exceeded, and by how much.

The role of northern forests in limiting warming to 1.5°C

Northern forests are critical in the race to net zero CO₂ by mid-century. Protecting and restoring these forests, alongside steep and rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions, is essential both to mitigating emissions and to supporting forest ecosystem services and biodiversity.

Rapid urbanisation and climate change key drivers of dramatic flood impacts in Nepal

New study finds the devastating floods in Nepal late September were exacerbated by rapid urbanisation and climate change. The analysis found the relentless rain, which fell on saturated ground in the late monsoon, was made at least 10% heavier and 70% more likely by climate change.

Seasonal forecast of two-metre temperature and precipitation in Tanzania: A hybrid cluster and point-by-point machine learning approach

Seasonal forecasting of atmospheric parameters is important in various fields including agriculture. This study tests how machine learning can complement dynamic models using Tanzanian seasonal forecasts and finds this process uses far less computational power.

Overconfidence in climate overshoot

Even if it is possible to reverse the rise of global temperatures after a temporary overshoot of 1.5°C, some climate damages triggered at peak warming, including rising sea levels, will be irreversible, according to a new study published today in Nature.

Solar geoengineering: a note to inform discussions on physical climate impacts, risks and governance issues

With international efforts on climate action still not on track to limit warming to 1.5°C, technological fixes that aim to intentionally alter the Earth’s climate, such as solar geoengineering, might seem like appealing options for tackling global warming. But they come with questions in terms of feasibility, impacts and risks, governance and geopolitics, and who may or may not benefit.

How can event attribution science underpin financial decisions on Loss and Damage?

With climate extremes hitting nations across the globe, disproportionately burdening vulnerable developing countries, funding for loss and damage is an acute need. Attribution science can provide useful information for decision makers.

Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks

Current climate policies are putting Earth on a path to a high risk of triggering climatic tipping points – even if temperatures return to below 1.5°C of global warming after a period of overshoot. A new study finds that the risk of crossing these thresholds increases with every additional 0.1 °C of overshoot above 1.5 °C and strongly accelerates above 2.0 °C. These risks can be minimised if stringent emissions reductions are taken in the next decade, and net zero greenhouse gas emissions are met and maintained.

Evaluating the near and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives

For 1.5°C pathways with limited overshoot, most of the mitigation between now and 2030 should come from emissions reductions (70%), with reductions from cutting non-CO2 emissions (20%) and land-based carbon dioxide removals such as afforestation and preventing deforestation (10%) making up the remainder.

Increasing April-May rainfall, El Niño and high vulnerability behind deadly flooding in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran

This April and May, large regions of central Asia were hit by a series of storms resulting in heavy downpours and flash flooding. Researchers assessed what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the weather conditions that caused the floods.

A review of loss and damage in the Caribbean (1994 to 2024)

Loss and damage from climate change has been the lived reality of Caribbean small island developing states (SIDS) for decades. Despite efforts to adapt, it is reversing development gains, leaving lasting financial stress, and causing irreparable damage, including the loss of cultural heritage. This report is the first to provide a systematic overview of how Caribbean countries are framing and reporting on loss and damage.

Earth Virtualisation Engines (EVE)

The authors propose creating an international federation of research institutions that improve the quality and accessibility of Earth systems data. The purpose is to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.

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Key points for West Africa from the IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land