A long-term emissions reduction and climate resilient strategy for Jamaica

Long-term planning is critical to putting countries on a pathway to sustainable growth and demonstrating their contribution to global climate change efforts. Long-term low emission development strategies, or simply “long term strategies” (LT-LEDS or LTS), were called for by the international community in the Paris Agreement, a call that the Glasgow Climate Pact reiterated in 2021.

In this project, Climate Analytics is supporting the Climate Change Division in the Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation, and the Planning Institute of Jamaica in building on previous work to develop a long-term strategy, and move towards a just climate transition.

According to modelling undertaken by the World Bank and Vivid Economics, without concerted action, Jamaica’s emissions have the potential to grow by 50% between 2020 and 2050. By adopting a long-term outlook for its emissions reductions efforts, Jamaica can pursue a pathway that helps it achieve sustainable development while decarbonising its economy at the same time.

Jamaica must also adapt to the unavoidable impacts of climate change. As a Small Island Developing State (SIDS), Jamaica is vulnerable to climate impacts and will require significant resilience-building efforts. By taking a longer view, and strategic approach to its adaptation efforts, Jamaica can put itself in the best position to maximise their efficacy.

Jamaica’s long-term strategy will outline a pathway to achieve low-carbon and climate resilient development over the next several decades. It brings together the goals of Vision 2030 Jamaica, the country’s first long term strategic development plan, along with its updated national determined contribution, while accelerating climate ambition towards 2050. Transformations will be needed across multiple sectors, including in energy, industry, transport, buildings, forestry, agriculture, and waste.

The development of Jamaica’s long-term strategy draws on previous analysis conducted under the NDC Partnership’s Climate Action Enhancement Package. It has also been further informed by in-person stakeholder consultations and public validation workshops across the course of the project, at subnational levels reaching multiple constituencies, including national agencies and ministries, civil society, private sector, academia, youth. The work has been reviewed and overseen by a multi-stakeholder committee appointed by Jamaica’s cabinet.

Key milestones of the project include:

• Public launch and initial consultations: end of February, 2023
• First draft of the long-term strategy: mid-March, 2023
• Validation of the long-term strategy through public consultations: end of June, 2023
• Final draft of the long-term strategy, integrating results from the consultations for government validation: end of July, 2023
• Long-term strategy Operationalisation Plan to Government of Jamaica: end of August, 2023
• Final presentation: end of October, 2023
• Project completion: mid-November, 2023