In 2015, governments pledged in the Paris Agreement to attempt to keep global warming since pre-industrial times to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Science shows that phasing out coal, the most polluting fossil fuel, is essential to achieving that goal.

Previous analyses gave a global phase-out date of 2050. New and updated science on what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit shows that governments now need to advance the date by a decade. The analysis confirms that developed nations need to phase-out coal faster than the rest of the world – by 2030.

With investors increasingly wary of putting money into coal, the global pipeline of new coal-fired power stations has fallen by 75% since 2015. Ahead of the UN Climate Action Summit on 23 September, UN Secretary-General Guterres called on governments to go further, and stop the approval of new coal power plants entirely by 2020.

But the new analysis shows cancelling new projects is no longer sufficient. The lack of progress means that the reductions in coal use in the electricity sector in the next decade will need to be very steep.

“We’ve seen some progress since 2015, from announcements of national coal phase-out plans to ever more investors and banks limiting financing for coal,” said report author Paola Yanguas Parra, who leads the work on decarbonisation strategies at Climate Analytics.

“However, while cancelling coal plans is a step in the right direction, as it will reduce the risk of stranded assets, governments now need to introduce effective regulation to shut down coal power plants well before the end of their technical lifetime and considerably reduce their use in the meantime,” said Yanguas Parra.

Two factors lead to the advance of the coal phase-out date. One is that governments have not tackled coal use adequately since the Paris Summit. The other is that last year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change gave a much clearer picture than was available in 2015 of how fast emissions need to fall in order to stay below the 1.5°C limit.

This leads to four key dates:

Global coal emissions should peak in 2020;
Global coal use in electricity generation must fall by 80% below 2010 levels by 2030;
OECD nations should end coal use entirely by 2030;
All coal-fired power stations must be shut by 2040 at the latest.

Coal generation vs paris agreement 1 — Future coal generation from current and planned coal power plants against Paris Agreement benchmarks

Governments have an opportunity to turn this analysis into national commitments over the course of next year, during which they are due to review and strengthen the pledges (the nationally-determined contributions or NDCs) that they originally made for the Paris Agreement.

“UN Secretary-General Guterres is absolutely right to focus his climate action summit on coal, because rapid coal phase-out is the single most important step to keep the objectives of the Paris Agreement within reach,” said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics and co-author of the report.

“It is critical that governments scale up their NDCs by 2020, as laid out in the Paris Agreement. These significantly stronger pledges must include clear commitments to phase out coal, remove subsidies for fossil fuels, and build support for renewables and energy efficiency,” said Hare.

Read report

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Press Releases

CAT global update 2024: As the climate crisis worsens, the warming outlook stagnates

The combined global effect of government action on climate change has flat-lined over the last three years, underscoring a critical disconnect between the reality of climate change and the lack of urgency on policies to cut emissions, the Climate Action Tracker said in its global update, released today at COP29 in Baku, along with 2035 target recommendations for big emitters and the "COP Presidencies Troika".

LNG shipbuilding industry heading to huge oversupply

In our updated report on the future of the LNG carrier shipbuilding industry, we find there's an even smaller need for these carriers to be built in the future, but that the industry continues to add capacity that simply won't be needed.

Scientists caution no guarantees when it comes to overshooting 1.5°C

New paper published in Nature analyses future scenarios in which we temporarily exceed 1.5°C and bring temperatures back down in the long run. It finds overshoot comes with irreversible consequences and rapid near-term emissions reductions are essential to reducing climate risks.

Picking up the pace: 1.5°C wind and solar targets for 2030 and 2035 in key countries

1.5°C aligned wind and solar benchmarks for China, India, USA, South Africa, Germany, Indonesia, Australia, Brazil, Mexico, Türkiye and Nigeria.

Expert reviewers comment on new UN report on sea level rise referenced today by the Secretary General in his speech to the Pacific Islands Forum in Tonga

New UN report launched by the Secretary General at the Pacific Islands Forum in Tonga speaks to the serious risks to the region from sea level rise if we are not able to limit warming to 1.5°C.

Australia's massive global carbon footprint set to continue with fossil fuel exports

Australia has a global carbon footprint that far exceeds its economic size and population - and is responsible for around 4.5% of global fossil carbon dioxide emissions, with 80% of those emissions coming from its fossil fuel exports.

Extreme heat in Phoenix could make outdoor work ‘impossible’ for nearly half the year – new data

New data shows that if we don’t take more action to limit the effects of global warming, by the year 2100 temperatures in Phoenix will get so high that 1297 hours every year will be considered unsafe for work outdoors.

Climate Risk Dashboard update: glacier retreat, biodiversity loss and impacts of heat stress on cities

Explore a wider range of impacts from climate change – including the impacts of heat stress on people – to learn how the climate crisis might affect you.

Bonn climate talks disappoint and up the stakes for Baku

As the climate negotiations wrap up in Bonn, Bill Hare, CEO and Senior Scientist, Climate Analytics comments.

Landmark report reveals larger extent of loss and damage in Caribbean

At the Bonn Climate Conference, Climate Analytics Caribbean launched the first comprehensive analysis of how regional governments are assessing and reporting on loss and damage impacts in the Caribbean.

Pre-monsoon heatwave in South Asia breaking records due to climate change

South and Southeast Asia are experiencing another record heatwave, with forecasts anticipating that the heatwave will continue in certain parts of the region before rain or cool winds bring a respite.

Proposed 2035 coal phase out date for the G7 too late to limit warming to 1.5°C

G7 Ministers have trailed a new commitment to phase out unabated coal in the first half of the 2030s. The proposed 2035 coal phase out date is too late to limit warming to 1.5°C, says Jane Ellis, Head of Climate Policy at Climate Analytics.

About us

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Comment

Coal exit by 2040 to keep climate goals within reach - report