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As the world endures a third straight year of record-breaking heat, a new study has given fresh insight into what global warming is likely to mean for Australians if it is not curbed. Researchers at Climate Analytics found the difference between 1.5 and 2 degrees of warming – the two goals included in the Paris climate deal – would be much greater in terms of extreme events and disasters than previously believed.

Limiting global warming to 1.5C rather than 2C would potentially double the cost of action but provide significant benefits, according to The Climate Institute. A Climate Analytics report commissioned by the Australian think-tank says where 1.5C warming is the upper end of present climate variability, 2C would signal “a new climatic regime of ­temperature and water-related extremes”.

Australia could avoid punishingly long heatwaves and boost the Great Barrier Reef’s chances of survival by helping to limit global warming to 1.5℃ rather than 2℃, according to a Climate Analytics report released by the Climate Institute today.

A new report for the Climate Institute has found significant differences between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius warming for Australia. Interview with Climate Analytics CEO and report author Bill Hare.

The Paris climate agreement will become international law by the end of 2016 if countries stick to the promises they have made. According to Climate Analytics, 57 countries have now indicated they will ratify or have already ratified the agreement by year’s end. They account for 59.88% of global emissions.

The Paris climate deal is a hair’s breadth away from meeting the criteria to enter into force in 2016. That is the upshot of two independent analyses, by the Marshall Islands foreign ministry and consultancy Climate Analytics.

Science underpinning the global treaty aiming to stop average temperatures rising more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels needs more research. Climate News Network's Alex Kirby in Climate Home on our latest research around the 1.5˚C long term temperature limit.

Conflicts are rarely triggered by one single factor. Natural disasters as such may not be a direct cause, but they can play a significant role in the outbreak of violence in multi-ethnic countries, a new study led by Climate Analytics' Carl-Friedrich Schleussner found.

Climate Analytics' Bill Hare on Brexit: "If the UK completely separates from EU climate policies in every sense, there will be consequences. But if the EU and UK remain entangled in a constructive way, going forward with policies like the emissions trading system, then the differences may not be so extreme.”

There can be no doubt that the window of opportunity to limit global warming to below 1.5℃, a key target of the 2015 Paris agreement, is closing fast. But there are encouraging signs around the world that this can still be done, even if there is still a very long way to go. Climate Analytics' Andrzej Ancygier and Bill Hare discuss three of the most positive developments that will help the world reach its target.