Germany will have to reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly more than planned if it wants to do its part in meeting the Paris Agreement. The globally most cost-effective way for Germany to help limit global warming to 1.5°C is to increase its 2030 reduction target from 55 percent to 73 percent, relative to 1990 levels.

Achieving this will not be easy. In particular, it places considerable demands on the transport sector, which will have to increase its 2030 reduction target from 40–42% to 53% by 2030. As the report says, “Germany is far from being on track.”

Climate Analytics drafted the study “En Route to Paris: Implications of the Paris Agreement for the German Transport Sector” “En Route to Paris: Implications of the Paris Agreement for the German Transport Sector” for Agora Verkehrswende. Based on the IPCC special report “Global Warming of 1.5°C” and scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the study’s authors determined national and sectoral emission budgets to minimise global mitigation costs.

Next, they examined how far Germany’s emissions would have to fall were its national share of greenhouse gas reductions to follow principles of climate equity. They found that Germany would have to decrease its emissions by 87 percent by 2030, rather than 73 percent. To close the gap between fair and “least-cost” reductions, Germany will have to significantly strengthen its commitment to international carbon mitigation efforts.

“With the measures it has taken so far, Germany will fall short not only of its own climate targets but also those set by the Paris Agreement,” Christian Hochfeld, the executive director of Agora Verkehrswende, says. Hochfeld stresses that the German government must go beyond the climate policies it recently adopted. Moreover, it must strongly urge the EU to raise its climate targets for 2030. “The new President of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has announced a climate protection offensive known as the European Green Deal,” Hochfeld notes. “The German government must seize this opportunity and support the Commission in formulating ambitious European climate policies. Pulling the brake now would be a serious setback in the fight against global warming.”

According to the study, if current emissions trends in the German transport sector continue until 2050, the sector’s cumulative emissions will amount to 5.4 billion tonnes. By contrast, to be consistent with the 1.5°C target, the sector may release no more than 2.6 billion tonnes. “Therefore,” the study concludes, “urgent measures are needed to reduce emissions and get on a pathway towards decarbonisation.”

The report recommends the rapid expansion of solar and wind power generation, the accelerated electrification of passenger and freight transport and the shift from road vehicles to more environmentally friendly means of transport.

Download the study ‘En route to Paris?’

German language version

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Press Releases

Climate change-fueled tropical cyclones have already reduced Filipino household incomes by 7%

Household incomes have dropped by 7% on average across the Philippines due to climate-driven tropical cyclones, according to a new peer-reviewed study. In some provinces such as Surigao del Norte, Maguindanao, Batangas and Cavite, tropical cyclones reduced household income by more than 20%.

$2 trillion a year needed to triple global renewables by 2030 – double current investment

Investment in Africa needs to grow five-fold to ramp up renewables twice as fast as global average

New film spotlights the Caribbean in global charge against climate change

With 2023 officially declared the hottest year ever recorded, “Island Action, Global Goals” is an inspiring film on how Caribbean islands are taking essential action in the face of worsening climate change, against the backdrop of the first Global Stocktake.

COP28 decision: a first nail in the coffin for the fossil fuel industry

Our CEO Bill Hare reacts to the Global Stocktake text adopted at COP28.

Weak GST text fundamentally puts 1.5°C out of reach

Bill Hare, CEO, reacts to the new draft of the Global Stocktake text at COP28 on Monday evening.

Carbon capture and storage could unleash 86 billion tonne carbon bomb

A new analysis finds reliance on carbon capture and storage could release an extra 86 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere between 2020 and 2050.

Projected warming almost unchanged for two years as governments push false solutions over climate action

Despite their promises, governments have not taken enough action to drive down warming projections, with some instead turning to false solutions such as carbon capture and storage to continue the world's reliance on fossil fuels, according to the Climate Action Tracker's annual warming update.

All greenhouse gas emissions could peak in 2023

A new report finds maintaining current solar, wind and electric vehicle growth rates could lead to peak emissions in 2023.

Oil and gas majors could have paid for their share of climate loss and damage and still earned 10 trillion USD: new report

Global climate damages from emissions associated with the top 25 oil and gas ‘carbon majors’ between 1985 and 2018 are estimated at 20 trillion USD compared to the 30 trillion USD they earned over the same period, according to a new report released today by international think tank Climate Analytics.

A 1.5˚C pathway for the Philippines power sector entirely feasible: analysis

With the right international funding and policies in place, the Philippines could transition its’ power sector to near-100% renewable energy without compromising on the costs of electricity, reducing its reliance on expensive imports of both coal and gas, and creating up to a million jobs by 2050.

State of Climate Action report finds progress lags on every measure except EV sales

Global efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C are failing across the board, with recent progress made on every indicator — except electric passenger car sales — lagging significantly behind the pace and scale that is necessary to address the climate crisis.

Governments plan to produce double the fossil fuels in 2030 than the 1.5°C warming limit allows

The Production Gap Report finds governments plan to produce around 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, and 69% more than would be consistent with 2°C.

About us

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Comment

German transport sector off course for Paris climate targets - study