Download the report here. Media resources available here.

Current policies and climate action has the world on a path to 2.7°C of warming, which would lead to sea level rise of 20cm above 2020 levels by 2050 and 56cm by 2100.
This would have a devastating effect on Pacific Islands, with low-lying areas being permanently lost. The average height of Pacific Island atolls is 1-2m above sea level.
Limiting warming to 1.5°C and achieving net zero around mid-century would result in a sea level rise of 18cm by 2050 and 38cm by 2100 compared to 2020 levels – or 30% lower sea levels in 2100 than under a 2.7°C scenario.
Small island nations are already experiencing impacts from climate-related sea level rise and need loss and damage finance to address them.

“In 2020, some Pacific Island nations including Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea and Micronesia lost more than 1% of their GDP to rising seas. The need for loss and damage finance is here today, and costs will only rise without urgent climate action now,” says report reviewer and Climate Analytics Senior Scientist, Dr Rosanne Martyr.

“The more we delay phasing out fossil fuels, the more sea level rise we’re locking ourselves into, and the earlier damages will occur. Taking action to limit warming to 1.5°C will slow sea level rise significantly. 2.7°C of warming is terrifying, as it would continue to accelerate sea level rise, bringing forward damages by fifty years and lead to close to a metre of sea level rise for Pacific Islands by 2150,” says report reviewer and Climate Analytics CEO, Bill Hare.

⋯

Please accept marketing cookies to view this content.

Press Releases

Bill Hare reacts to the latest round of text from the COP29 Presidency

On Friday 22 Nov at COP29, Bill Hare comments on the latest round of text on the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance, the Global Stocktake and the mitigation work programme

CAT global update 2024: As the climate crisis worsens, the warming outlook stagnates

The combined global effect of government action on climate change has flat-lined over the last three years, underscoring a critical disconnect between the reality of climate change and the lack of urgency on policies to cut emissions, the Climate Action Tracker said in its global update, released today at COP29 in Baku, along with 2035 target recommendations for big emitters and the "COP Presidencies Troika".

LNG shipbuilding industry heading to huge oversupply

In our updated report on the future of the LNG carrier shipbuilding industry, we find there's an even smaller need for these carriers to be built in the future, but that the industry continues to add capacity that simply won't be needed.

Scientists caution no guarantees when it comes to overshooting 1.5°C

New paper published in Nature analyses future scenarios in which we temporarily exceed 1.5°C and bring temperatures back down in the long run. It finds overshoot comes with irreversible consequences and rapid near-term emissions reductions are essential to reducing climate risks.

Picking up the pace: 1.5°C wind and solar targets for 2030 and 2035 in key countries

1.5°C aligned wind and solar benchmarks for China, India, USA, South Africa, Germany, Indonesia, Australia, Brazil, Mexico, Türkiye and Nigeria.

Australia's massive global carbon footprint set to continue with fossil fuel exports

Australia has a global carbon footprint that far exceeds its economic size and population - and is responsible for around 4.5% of global fossil carbon dioxide emissions, with 80% of those emissions coming from its fossil fuel exports.

Extreme heat in Phoenix could make outdoor work ‘impossible’ for nearly half the year – new data

New data shows that if we don’t take more action to limit the effects of global warming, by the year 2100 temperatures in Phoenix will get so high that 1297 hours every year will be considered unsafe for work outdoors.

Climate Risk Dashboard update: glacier retreat, biodiversity loss and impacts of heat stress on cities

Explore a wider range of impacts from climate change – including the impacts of heat stress on people – to learn how the climate crisis might affect you.

Bonn climate talks disappoint and up the stakes for Baku

As the climate negotiations wrap up in Bonn, Bill Hare, CEO and Senior Scientist, Climate Analytics comments.

Landmark report reveals larger extent of loss and damage in Caribbean

At the Bonn Climate Conference, Climate Analytics Caribbean launched the first comprehensive analysis of how regional governments are assessing and reporting on loss and damage impacts in the Caribbean.

Pre-monsoon heatwave in South Asia breaking records due to climate change

South and Southeast Asia are experiencing another record heatwave, with forecasts anticipating that the heatwave will continue in certain parts of the region before rain or cool winds bring a respite.

Proposed 2035 coal phase out date for the G7 too late to limit warming to 1.5°C

G7 Ministers have trailed a new commitment to phase out unabated coal in the first half of the 2030s. The proposed 2035 coal phase out date is too late to limit warming to 1.5°C, says Jane Ellis, Head of Climate Policy at Climate Analytics.

About us

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Comment

Expert reviewers comment on new UN report on sea level rise referenced today by the Secretary General in his speech to the Pacific Islands Forum in Tonga