13 April, 2021, Berlin: Sea surface temperature rise driven by climate change has doubled the chances of extremely active Atlantic tropical cyclone seasons according to a new peer-reviewed study from research organisation Climate Analytics.

The study, published today in Weather and Climate Dynamics, looks at data from 1982 to 2020, finding that an extremely active Atlantic tropical cyclone season – classified by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as a season with an accumulated cyclone energy above 160 – was made 200% more likely in 2020 by man-made ocean warming.

“While the attribution of individual tropical cyclone events remains difficult, there can be no doubt that climate change is creating more intense storms,” commented lead author, Peter Pfleiderer.

“Our results do not imply that increasing sea-surface temperatures lead to more tropical cyclones – but point towards a trend of more intense storms and therefore more extreme outcomes for seasons with many tropical cyclones,” he added.

Is it climate change?

The formation of tropical cyclones and their intensity primarily depends on ‘seasonal atmospheric circulation’ – the year-to-year differences in wind patterns at different levels of the atmosphere. The attribution of tropical cyclone events to climate change remains challenging due to the difficulty of simulating tropical cyclones in climate models and the strong year-to-year variability in atmospheric circulation.

To overcome this, the researchers instead looked at the increase in sea surface temperatures, which are well understood, and can robustly be attributed to human-influenced climate change.

“This study looks at the changes stemming from increasing sea surface temperatures, but it has to be expected that atmospheric circulation changes from global warming also affects tropical cyclone activity – so our results could be conservative,” Pfleiderer added.

Disaster, year after year

Tropical cyclones are among the most damaging extreme weather events and can devastate vulnerable countries. Separate research from 2019 showed that in the past 20 years, some Caribbean Small Island Developing States have been hit by a major hurricane (an intense tropical cyclone that reaches category four or five) eight times. GDP losses from tropical cyclones average at 3.7% per year, with the most affected Caribbean country, Dominica, averaging yearly losses of 21.2%.

This year’s Atlantic tropical cyclone season starts in August and forecasts published this week by the same group of researchers predict that it will be extremely active – with an estimated accumulated cyclone energy of 164. This would be the third extremely active season in the last decade.

For comparison, the 2017 season – which was the costliest on record, with major Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria – had an ACE of roughly 225. In Barbuda over 90% of structures were destroyed, resulting in the island being completely uninhabited for the first time in 300 years.

Read the study

Climate impacts and risks

Press Releases

Pre-monsoon heatwave in South Asia breaking records due to climate change

South and Southeast Asia are experiencing another record heatwave, with forecasts anticipating that the heatwave will continue in certain parts of the region before rain or cool winds bring a respite.

Proposed 2035 coal phase out date for the G7 too late to limit warming to 1.5°C

G7 Ministers have trailed a new commitment to phase out unabated coal in the first half of the 2030s. The proposed 2035 coal phase out date is too late to limit warming to 1.5°C, says Jane Ellis, Head of Climate Policy at Climate Analytics.

Climate change-fueled tropical cyclones have already reduced Filipino household incomes by 7%

Household incomes have dropped by 7% on average across the Philippines due to climate-driven tropical cyclones, according to a new peer-reviewed study. In some provinces such as Surigao del Norte, Maguindanao, Batangas and Cavite, tropical cyclones reduced household income by more than 20%.

$2 trillion a year needed to triple global renewables by 2030 – double current investment

Investment in Africa needs to grow five-fold to ramp up renewables twice as fast as global average

New film spotlights the Caribbean in global charge against climate change

With 2023 officially declared the hottest year ever recorded, “Island Action, Global Goals” is an inspiring film on how Caribbean islands are taking essential action in the face of worsening climate change, against the backdrop of the first Global Stocktake.

COP28 decision: a first nail in the coffin for the fossil fuel industry

Our CEO Bill Hare reacts to the Global Stocktake text adopted at COP28.

Weak GST text fundamentally puts 1.5°C out of reach

Bill Hare, CEO, reacts to the new draft of the Global Stocktake text at COP28 on Monday evening.

Carbon capture and storage could unleash 86 billion tonne carbon bomb

A new analysis finds reliance on carbon capture and storage could release an extra 86 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere between 2020 and 2050.

Projected warming almost unchanged for two years as governments push false solutions over climate action

Despite their promises, governments have not taken enough action to drive down warming projections, with some instead turning to false solutions such as carbon capture and storage to continue the world's reliance on fossil fuels, according to the Climate Action Tracker's annual warming update.

All greenhouse gas emissions could peak in 2023

A new report finds maintaining current solar, wind and electric vehicle growth rates could lead to peak emissions in 2023.

Oil and gas majors could have paid for their share of climate loss and damage and still earned 10 trillion USD: new report

Global climate damages from emissions associated with the top 25 oil and gas ‘carbon majors’ between 1985 and 2018 are estimated at 20 trillion USD compared to the 30 trillion USD they earned over the same period, according to a new report released today by international think tank Climate Analytics.

A 1.5˚C pathway for the Philippines power sector entirely feasible: analysis

With the right international funding and policies in place, the Philippines could transition its’ power sector to near-100% renewable energy without compromising on the costs of electricity, reducing its reliance on expensive imports of both coal and gas, and creating up to a million jobs by 2050.

About us

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Comment

Climate change doubles chance of extreme Atlantic cyclone seasons: study