Turkey’s climate plans could be dwarfed by coal emissions: Climate Action Tracker
Turkey’s climate plans, submitted to the UN ahead of the upcoming Paris Climate Summit, have been rated “inadequate” by international research analysts, the Climate Action Tracker, which says the country’s coal plant plans would cancel out its abatement measures.
Turkey’s target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by up to 21% below business as usual by 2030 is not in line with interpretations of a “fair” approach to reach a 2°C pathway, and, if all countries were to adopt the same level of ambition, global warming would likely exceed 3-4°C in the 21st century.
“To make a fair contribution to holding warming below 2˚C, Turkey would need to double – or even triple – its post-2020 target,” said Professor Kornelis Blok of Ecofys.
Of concern are Turkey’s reported plans to build huge new coal capacity, quadrupling its coal plants by 2020 to reach 80GW. This added coal-fired capacity would cancel out all planned abatement measures listed in the INDC, and prevent Turkey from meeting its INDC goal.
At the same time, the country’s ambition in boosting wind and solar capacities appears to decrease after 2023. It has reduced its wind energy target from 20 GW in 2023 to 16 GW in 2030, and plans to only double its solar energy target to reach 10 GW in 2030.
“Turkey’s renewable energy targets do not reflect the potential of a country with a photovoltaic system performance 50% higher than in Germany and a technical wind power potential of 275 GW,” said Niklas Höhne of NewClimate Institute.
“Turkey will not be immune to the human, economic and environmental impacts of climate change and would appear to have a strong national interest in limiting warming below 2°C: plans to invest in coal over renewables contradict this” noted Bill Hare of Climate Analytics.
The IPCC says for Turkey that one metre of sea level rise, which is more than possible for 3-4oC global warming, could affect three million additional people and put USD $12 billion capital value at risk, with around USD$ 20 billion in adaptation costs – 10% of Turkey’s GDP. Studies also project low summer flows in major river basins, leading to increased water shortages in a much warmer climate, in an already water scarce region.
“Scientific papers point to climate change playing a part in the region’s crippling 2007-2010 drought that led to widespread crop failure, food shortages and mass migration of farming families into urban centres, implicating climate change as a contributing factor, exacerbating the underlying social and political problems that have caused the current conflict in the region and the resulting Syrian refugee crisis,” said Hare.
Carbon capture and storage could unleash 86 billion tonne carbon bomb
A new analysis finds reliance on carbon capture and storage could release an extra 86 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere between 2020 and 2050.
Projected warming almost unchanged for two years as governments push false solutions over climate action
Despite their promises, governments have not taken enough action to drive down warming projections, with some instead turning to false solutions such as carbon capture and storage to continue the world's reliance on fossil fuels, according to the Climate Action Tracker's annual warming update.
Oil and gas majors could have paid for their share of climate loss and damage and still earned 10 trillion USD: new report
Global climate damages from emissions associated with the top 25 oil and gas ‘carbon majors’ between 1985 and 2018 are estimated at 20 trillion USD compared to the 30 trillion USD they earned over the same period, according to a new report released today by international think tank Climate Analytics.
A 1.5˚C pathway for the Philippines power sector entirely feasible: analysis
With the right international funding and policies in place, the Philippines could transition its’ power sector to near-100% renewable energy without compromising on the costs of electricity, reducing its reliance on expensive imports of both coal and gas, and creating up to a million jobs by 2050.
State of Climate Action report finds progress lags on every measure except EV sales
Global efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C are failing across the board, with recent progress made on every indicator — except electric passenger car sales — lagging significantly behind the pace and scale that is necessary to address the climate crisis.
Governments plan to produce double the fossil fuels in 2030 than the 1.5°C warming limit allows
The Production Gap Report finds governments plan to produce around 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, and 69% more than would be consistent with 2°C.
Beetaloo fracking and Middle Arm emissions wildly underestimated: analysis
An independent analysis of the projected emissions from the Northern Territory's proposed Beetaloo Basin gas fracking project — and the associated Middle Arm LNG precinct in Darwin Harbour — has found they've been gravely underestimated, as have the availability of offsets to deal with them.
Comic artists respond to the climate crisis
Three leading comic creators have collaborated with the Horizon Europe project, CONSTRAIN, to develop comics exploring the climate change challenge.
Adelle Thomas elected as Vice-Chair of the IPCC's Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability group
Dr. Adelle Thomas elected as Vice-Chair of the IPCC's Working Group II contribution on on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability for the seventh assessment report cycle
Changes to the jet stream could trigger simultaneous crop failures impacting global food security
This new study finds that the jet stream – air currents in the upper atmosphere – can synchronise extreme weather caused by climate change, resulting in crop failures in multiple countries at the same time.