Global update: Projected warming from Paris pledges drops to 2.4 degrees after US Summit: analysis
The projected warming from the “optimistic scenario” assuming full implementation of all net zero targets has dropped to 2.0˚C. While the number of countries adopting or considering net zero targets has risen to 131 countries, covering 73% of global GHG emissions, it is the updated 2030 Paris Agreement 2030 targets, rather than the additional countries, that contribute the most to the drop in projected warming compared with the CAT’s 2.1˚C “optimistic scenario” in the CAT December update.
“It is clear the Paris Agreement is driving change, spurring governments into adopting stronger targets, but there is still some way to go, especially given that most governments don’t yet have policies in place to meet their pledges,” said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, one of the CAT partner organisations.
“Our warming estimate from current policies is 2.9˚C – still nearly twice what it should be, and governments must urgently step up their action.”
The biggest contributors to the drop in projected warming are the US, the EU27, China and Japan although China and Japan did not yet formally submit a new 2030 target to the UN. Canada announced a new target, South Africa has an increased target under public consultation, Argentina has announced a further strengthening of the target it submitted last December, and the UK has announced a stronger 2035 target.
While the leaders of India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey all spoke at the US summit, none announced stronger NDCs. South Korea, New Zealand, Bhutan and Bangladesh all committed to submitting stronger NDC’s this year. Australia made a vague commitment to reaching net zero at an unspecified date, but didn’t update its 2030 target. Brazil brought forward its climate neutrality goal, but has changed its baseline, making its 2030 target weaker.
Just over 40% of the countries that have ratified the Paris Agreement, representing about half global emissions and about a third of the global population, have submitted updated NDCs. The CAT’s final calculations on the 2030 emissions gap between Paris pledges and a 1.5˚C pathway show it’s been narrowed by 11-14%.
“The wave towards net zero greenhouse gas emissions is unstoppable. The long-term intentions are good. But only if all governments flip into emergency mode and propose and implement more short-term action, global emissions can still be halved in the next 10 years as required by the Paris Agreement,” said Niklas Höhne of NewClimate Institute, the second CAT partner.
The CAT set out the key measures that governments need to take to get emissions onto a 1.5˚C pathway.
While the renewable electricity and electric vehicle sectors show much promise, and the technology is there, the development of new technologies for the industry and buildings sectors is too slow.
Contrary to the Paris Agreement are the persisting plans of some governments to build new infrastructure such as new coal-fired power plants, increasing uptake of natural gas as a source of electricity and a trend towards larger, less efficient personal vehicles in some countries.
All greenhouse gas emissions could peak in 2023
A new report finds maintaining current solar, wind and electric vehicle growth rates could lead to peak emissions in 2023.
Oil and gas majors could have paid for their share of climate loss and damage and still earned 10 trillion USD: new report
Global climate damages from emissions associated with the top 25 oil and gas ‘carbon majors’ between 1985 and 2018 are estimated at 20 trillion USD compared to the 30 trillion USD they earned over the same period, according to a new report released today by international think tank Climate Analytics.
A 1.5˚C pathway for the Philippines power sector entirely feasible: analysis
With the right international funding and policies in place, the Philippines could transition its’ power sector to near-100% renewable energy without compromising on the costs of electricity, reducing its reliance on expensive imports of both coal and gas, and creating up to a million jobs by 2050.
State of Climate Action report finds progress lags on every measure except EV sales
Global efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C are failing across the board, with recent progress made on every indicator — except electric passenger car sales — lagging significantly behind the pace and scale that is necessary to address the climate crisis.
Governments plan to produce double the fossil fuels in 2030 than the 1.5°C warming limit allows
The Production Gap Report finds governments plan to produce around 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, and 69% more than would be consistent with 2°C.
Beetaloo fracking and Middle Arm emissions wildly underestimated: analysis
An independent analysis of the projected emissions from the Northern Territory's proposed Beetaloo Basin gas fracking project — and the associated Middle Arm LNG precinct in Darwin Harbour — has found they've been gravely underestimated, as have the availability of offsets to deal with them.
Remembering Saleemul Huq
We pay tribute to the highly revered climate expert and advocate Saleemul Huq, who passed away suddenly this Saturday.
Comic artists respond to the climate crisis
Three leading comic creators have collaborated with the Horizon Europe project, CONSTRAIN, to develop comics exploring the climate change challenge.
Changes to the jet stream could trigger simultaneous crop failures impacting global food security
This new study finds that the jet stream – air currents in the upper atmosphere – can synchronise extreme weather caused by climate change, resulting in crop failures in multiple countries at the same time.
At least 1.5 TW of new wind and solar capacity needed each year by 2030 to meet 1.5°C limit sustainably
Our new analysis, which applies sustainability limits and minimises the need for carbon dioxide removal, finds new wind and solar needs to be installed five times faster by 2030 at a rate of 1.5 TW a year to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
Limiting warming using solar geoengineering is a 100 year plus commitment, new study
New peer reviewed research shows that if solar radiation management – where higher amounts of sunlight are reflected back to space through artificially altering either the Earth’s surface or the atmosphere – is deployed to limit warming to 1.5°C without emissions cuts beyond those currently envisioned by governments, it would have to be maintained for at least a hundred years.