Fossil gas must exit the global power system by 2040 to limit warming to 1.5°C - report
Press conference at Bonn climate talks
Watch live here or on demand later.
Deutsche Übersetzung ist hier verfügbar.
14 June, 2022, Bonn, Gas must exit electricity generation rapidly after coal – as early as 2035 in rich countries, and by 2040 for the rest of the world – to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit in reach, according to a new report Fossil gas: a bridge to nowhere, released today.
The report by research organisation Climate Analytics looks at when different regions need to phase out fossil gas electricity generation to be 1.5°C compatible. At the global level, it shows that the decline in fossil gas electricity generation should start immediately, and fall to just 15% of total global electricity generation by 2030 to reach very low levels by 2035.
The findings are based on 1.5°C emissions pathways assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which are designed to show the most cost-effective way to limit warming to 1.5°C.
Developed countries will need to phase out gas first, to fall below 10% of total electricity generation by 2030, and effectively be phased out by 2035. For developing countries, the share of fossil gas generation will need to fall to below 10% by 2035, and be phased out by the early 2040s.
Developing countries will require financial, technical and, depending on the circumstances, transitional support from developed countries to shift to renewable energy systems at pace.
“Our analysis shows very starkly that fossil gas cannot be a transition fuel. Phase-out in all regions is at most 5-10 years after coal, much too short for investments in gas expansion to be cost-effective and avoid stranding,” said lead author Claire Fyson, who leads mitigation pathway analysis at Climate Analytics.
While there is growing consensus among governments on the need for coal phase-out, fossil gas has largely flown under the radar. Many governments are responding to the current energy crisis by planning for new gas infrastructure to replace Russian supplies.
“Gas use needs to be declining now, there’s no two ways about it. Supporters of gas present it as the ‘cleaner’ alternative to coal and a ‘bridging fuel’ on the way to renewables – but the gap just doesn’t exist anymore. Renewables and storage are the cheapest forms of power on the planet,” said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics.
Carbon capture and storage could unleash 86 billion tonne carbon bomb
A new analysis finds reliance on carbon capture and storage could release an extra 86 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere between 2020 and 2050.
Projected warming almost unchanged for two years as governments push false solutions over climate action
Despite their promises, governments have not taken enough action to drive down warming projections, with some instead turning to false solutions such as carbon capture and storage to continue the world's reliance on fossil fuels, according to the Climate Action Tracker's annual warming update.
Oil and gas majors could have paid for their share of climate loss and damage and still earned 10 trillion USD: new report
Global climate damages from emissions associated with the top 25 oil and gas ‘carbon majors’ between 1985 and 2018 are estimated at 20 trillion USD compared to the 30 trillion USD they earned over the same period, according to a new report released today by international think tank Climate Analytics.
A 1.5˚C pathway for the Philippines power sector entirely feasible: analysis
With the right international funding and policies in place, the Philippines could transition its’ power sector to near-100% renewable energy without compromising on the costs of electricity, reducing its reliance on expensive imports of both coal and gas, and creating up to a million jobs by 2050.
State of Climate Action report finds progress lags on every measure except EV sales
Global efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C are failing across the board, with recent progress made on every indicator — except electric passenger car sales — lagging significantly behind the pace and scale that is necessary to address the climate crisis.
Governments plan to produce double the fossil fuels in 2030 than the 1.5°C warming limit allows
The Production Gap Report finds governments plan to produce around 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, and 69% more than would be consistent with 2°C.
Beetaloo fracking and Middle Arm emissions wildly underestimated: analysis
An independent analysis of the projected emissions from the Northern Territory's proposed Beetaloo Basin gas fracking project — and the associated Middle Arm LNG precinct in Darwin Harbour — has found they've been gravely underestimated, as have the availability of offsets to deal with them.
Comic artists respond to the climate crisis
Three leading comic creators have collaborated with the Horizon Europe project, CONSTRAIN, to develop comics exploring the climate change challenge.
Adelle Thomas elected as Vice-Chair of the IPCC's Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability group
Dr. Adelle Thomas elected as Vice-Chair of the IPCC's Working Group II contribution on on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability for the seventh assessment report cycle
Changes to the jet stream could trigger simultaneous crop failures impacting global food security
This new study finds that the jet stream – air currents in the upper atmosphere – can synchronise extreme weather caused by climate change, resulting in crop failures in multiple countries at the same time.