The report, commissioned by Solutions for Climate Australia, found the government appears to have substantially underestimated the projected emissions from existing coal mines and liquefied natural gas (LNG) production – and committed and publicly-announced expansions, and new mines – and the consequent need for offsets under the SGM.

The government’s projected emissions for the LNG industry shows only a 20% rise by 2030. But the Climate Analytics figures based on a detailed bottom-up analysis show an increase of 36% from 2021 levels by 2030. For coal mine emissions, the government projects a 10% decline in emissions by 2030, but the Climate Analytics figures show a rise of between 23% to 116% over the same period.

The report found that emissions from existing and committed LNG projects and all committed – and publicly announced expansions of – coal projects would lead to emissions amounting to 83-112 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year in 2030. This upper range would bring it to well over the 100 MtCO2e baseline target set for all facilities under the proposed reform of the Safeguard Mechanism.

While coal and LNG make up around half of Safeguard Mechanism facilities, their emissions alone would leave no room for other industries in the scheme, who would find themselves having to make additional steeper cuts to keep to the government’s set 100 MtCO2e limit.

“The government appears to have significantly underestimated the likely emissions from LNG and coal by 2030, and our projections show these are set to soar,” said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics.

“Because the government has set no limit on the amount of carbon offsets industry is allowed to use, there will be a free-for-all for these credits by the LNG and coal industry.”

“The Safeguard Mechanism will therefore not work to drive emissions down as it’s supposed to, particularly given the integrity issues found to be widespread within Australia’s offset scheme by independent experts.”

The report finds that emissions from the LNG and coal industry would continue to increase by 2030 and this will be driven by unlimited availability of cheap carbon offsets. There is a significant chance this availability will also enable new gas and coal developments that do not presently exist.

The report calculates the cumulative abatement gap from current and committed or announced coal and LNG production. If these industries try to meet their abatement task using Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs), this would add up to a range of 73-259 million tonnes of ACCUs.

But even the lowest scenario for pollution- requiring 73 million tonnes of offsets – is almost double the government’s projected 20% of ACCUs required by all SGM facilities in 2030, if extrapolated across the entire duration of the scheme. The worst case – requiring 259 million tonnes of offsets– is double the entire number of ACCUs generated to date.

“We need to make sure that the necessary reforms to reduce climate pollution from industry won’t be distorted or wrecked by the ever-expanding coal and gas industry. We need to ensure that the costs and burden of their climate pollution isn’t going to be carried by other sectors of industry,” said Director of Solutions for Climate Australia, Dr. Barry Traill.

Read the report

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Press Releases

Bill Hare reacts to the latest round of text from the COP29 Presidency

On Friday 22 Nov at COP29, Bill Hare comments on the latest round of text on the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance, the Global Stocktake and the mitigation work programme

CAT global update 2024: As the climate crisis worsens, the warming outlook stagnates

The combined global effect of government action on climate change has flat-lined over the last three years, underscoring a critical disconnect between the reality of climate change and the lack of urgency on policies to cut emissions, the Climate Action Tracker said in its global update, released today at COP29 in Baku, along with 2035 target recommendations for big emitters and the "COP Presidencies Troika".

LNG shipbuilding industry heading to huge oversupply

In our updated report on the future of the LNG carrier shipbuilding industry, we find there's an even smaller need for these carriers to be built in the future, but that the industry continues to add capacity that simply won't be needed.

Scientists caution no guarantees when it comes to overshooting 1.5°C

New paper published in Nature analyses future scenarios in which we temporarily exceed 1.5°C and bring temperatures back down in the long run. It finds overshoot comes with irreversible consequences and rapid near-term emissions reductions are essential to reducing climate risks.

Picking up the pace: 1.5°C wind and solar targets for 2030 and 2035 in key countries

1.5°C aligned wind and solar benchmarks for China, India, USA, South Africa, Germany, Indonesia, Australia, Brazil, Mexico, Türkiye and Nigeria.

Expert reviewers comment on new UN report on sea level rise referenced today by the Secretary General in his speech to the Pacific Islands Forum in Tonga

New UN report launched by the Secretary General at the Pacific Islands Forum in Tonga speaks to the serious risks to the region from sea level rise if we are not able to limit warming to 1.5°C.

Australia's massive global carbon footprint set to continue with fossil fuel exports

Australia has a global carbon footprint that far exceeds its economic size and population - and is responsible for around 4.5% of global fossil carbon dioxide emissions, with 80% of those emissions coming from its fossil fuel exports.

Extreme heat in Phoenix could make outdoor work ‘impossible’ for nearly half the year – new data

New data shows that if we don’t take more action to limit the effects of global warming, by the year 2100 temperatures in Phoenix will get so high that 1297 hours every year will be considered unsafe for work outdoors.

Climate Risk Dashboard update: glacier retreat, biodiversity loss and impacts of heat stress on cities

Explore a wider range of impacts from climate change – including the impacts of heat stress on people – to learn how the climate crisis might affect you.

Bonn climate talks disappoint and up the stakes for Baku

As the climate negotiations wrap up in Bonn, Bill Hare, CEO and Senior Scientist, Climate Analytics comments.

Landmark report reveals larger extent of loss and damage in Caribbean

At the Bonn Climate Conference, Climate Analytics Caribbean launched the first comprehensive analysis of how regional governments are assessing and reporting on loss and damage impacts in the Caribbean.

Pre-monsoon heatwave in South Asia breaking records due to climate change

South and Southeast Asia are experiencing another record heatwave, with forecasts anticipating that the heatwave will continue in certain parts of the region before rain or cool winds bring a respite.

About us

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Comment

Coal and LNG emissions could break proposed Safeguard Mechanism