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If nations met the goals set at past climate talks of tripling renewables, doubling energy efficiency and cutting methane by 2030, the rate of global warming could be cut by a third within a decade and a half by 2040, according to a new report by Climate Analytics.

“This progress is proof that multilateralism is working, it is delivering,” Manjeet Dhakal of the Climate Analytics South Asia told us from Belém. “Having said that, it is simply not enough. Emissions need to go down much further, and a lot of it is tied to developed countries providing climate finance to do so.”

Bill Hare, said: “If [governments] achieve this by 2035, it would be a gamechanger, quickly slowing the rate of warming in the next decade and lowering global warming this century from 2.6C to about 1.7C.”

Sarah Heck says an additional 2 degrees Celsius of heat in the atmosphere would lead to ice-free summers in the Arctic at least once a decade, as opposed to once a century in a 1.5-degree scenario.

Sarah Heck, climate policy analyst at Climate Analytics, discusses COP and climate inaction live on CNBC.

“We know that the world’s richest countries are continuing to invest in oil and gas development,” said Bill Hare, a climate scientist who founded Climate Analytics, a policy group. “This simply should not be happening.”

The erosion of leadership at the global stage - likely to be an influencing factor at COP30 - means those countries themselves “must also now fill the gap for courage, leadership and ingenuity in order to have even a fighting chance of securing meaningful outcomes at COP30”, said Rueanna Haynes, head of diplomacy at Climate Analytics.

“It will not be an easy road,” she said.

“The big problem is that progress has flattened in the last few years, both in terms of targets put forward by countries and policies put in place. Ten years after Paris, COP30 will have to deal with some of this delay with urgency,” Hare said.

The UN Environment Program’s Emissions Gap report says global temperatures now predicted to reach 2.3-2.5°C, down from 2.6-2.8°C last year. While this is progress, we must go faster. Our CEO Bill Hare told AP that the numbers indicate “a lack of political will”.

Climate and energy policy analyst Thomas Houlie said Indonesia is lagging despite its vast renewable potential. “Its latest power grid plan delayed a lot of the renewable deployment until after 2030 and includes near-term increases in fossil-fuel generation,” said Mr Houlie.