A team of Climate Analytics researchers will be presenting some of their latest research at the General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) 2019 in Vienna (Austria) on 7–12 April 2019. Climate Analytics produces some of the key research on the 1.5°C limit in the Paris Agreement, and a significant number of our publications fed into the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C, which was released in October 2018.
Climate pollution from Australian cars and trucks is soaring with elected representatives failing to set mandatory pollution standards and strong incentives for electric vehicles, new analysis by Climate Analytics has found.
Recent research from the Australia National University’s claims that the rate of growth of renewable energy supply sources in the power sector will lead to Australia meeting its Paris Agreement targets by 2024, five years early. Our fact check reveals that this claim does not stack up.
Germany’s coal commission proposal, announced today in Berlin, that Germany should continue to burn coal for electricity until 2038, is incompatible with Paris Agreement goals.
Australia is one of the few countries that is making no real progress on improving energy efficiency in manufacturing and industry, according to new analysis by Climate Analytics.
The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) estimate of the total warming of the aggregate effect of Paris Agreement commitments and of real-world policy shows little change. If all governments achieved their Paris Agreement commitments the world will likely warm 3.0°C—twice the 1.5°C limit they agreed in Paris.
The European Union has recently published its Strategic Vision “A clean planet for all” along with the In-Depth Analysis supporting it. In it, the European Commission claims that an 80% reduction of the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 can be taken as being in line with the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal. In this paper, published by Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, we discuss how the Commission’s relabelling of the former “hold-below-2°C” pathways associated with the 2010 Cancun Agreements as the Paris Agreement temperature goal – “hold warming well-below 2°C, limit to 1.5°C ” is not correct. By design, the Paris long-term temperature goal is a strengthening of the former 2°C goal.
With the Australian Conservation Foundation, Climate Analytics has been analysing Australia’s emissions profile and policies. We have created some graphic factsheets that illustrate where Australia is compared with other countries, and clearly show how far behind Australia is compared to other major economies in terms of emissions and policies.
This briefing addresses grave scientific concerns in relation to proposed geoengineering techniques such as solar radiation management (SRM). “Geoengineering” as used here does not refer to negative emissions technologies that remove CO2 from the atmosphere (carbon dioxide removal or CDR) as part of the energy system or through ecosystem restoration and afforestation or reforestation. Here we specifically address the risks posed by SRM.
The IPCC SR 1.5°C bolsters the case for pursuing the lower end of the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal, and makes clear that it is no longer sufficient to reduce emissions alone – CO2 will also need to be removed from the atmosphere, on a scale never previously attempted. But is the international community prepared for the implementation of Carbon Dioxide Removal options at this unprecedented scale? This report finds that while a number of reporting rules and accounting practices are already in place with direct applicability to the implementation of CDR options, many governance gaps remain. "Find more information here. (Governing Large-Scale Carbon Dioxide Removal: Are We Ready? )":/publications/2018/governing-large-scale-carbon-dioxide-removal-are-we-ready/
A new Climate Analytics report shows for the first time that Germany will need to rapidly exit coal from electricity generation by 2030, as part of the global coal exit by 2050 the IPCC shows is needed to meet the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit, and this will also bring massive health benefits.
8 October 2018 Incheon, Republic of Korea -- The IPCC’s report released today shows the impacts of even 1.5˚C of warming are far greater than previously thought, but also that it’s definitely still feasible to hold warming to that level, according to scientific research organisation Climate Analytics.
Climate action in the Pacific is getting a boost with an injection of funding from the New Zealand government for a new Pacific Climate Change Centre in Apia, Samoa, in collaboration with the Government of Japan.
The first ever Pacific Marine Climate Change Report Card has been launched today as part of World Oceans Day, at events in Fiji and Samoa. The user-friendly report card details current and projected climate change impacts on the Pacific island marine environment, what action is already being taken and what further responses are needed.
Japan’s current coal-fired power policies and plans would result in carbon pollution between now and 2050 almost three times what is consistent with the Paris Agreement, risking stranded assets and loss of competitiveness for Japanese investors, says a new report by Climate Analytics, in collaboration with the Renewable Energy Institute of Japan.
Despite its significant contribution to global warming, the road freight transport sector is often neglected in government policies, according to the Climate Action Tracker’s (CAT) latest memo in its decarbonisation series.
The Climate Action Tracker has updated assessments of 23 of the 32 countries whose development on climate action it tracks. While some progress has been made since November, most governments’ policies are still not on track towards meeting their Paris Agreement commitments, many of which are in themselves far from sufficient to keep warming to the agreed 1.5˚C warming limit. The Climate Action Tracker's assessments point to an urgent need for governments to scale up both their policies and targets to bring them more in line with a pathway to limiting warming to 1.5˚C.
Climate Analytics and the Climate Action Tracker inputs to the Talanoa Dialogue summarise the latest science around the 1.5°C limit, evaluate the gap between the current levels of climate action and emissions reductions needed under the Paris Agreement, and outline the necessary steps in key sectors to get us there.
As people around the world switch off their lights for “Earth Hour” this weekend, a new analysis shows the world could make huge reductions in global warming by simply adopting the highest existing energy related standards for lighting and appliances. This can be achieved at net zero costs for consumers and with substantial co-benefits to health, according to the Climate Action Tracker.
Amplifying Caribbean voices in the push for more urgent climate action ahead of the next climate summit, COP24 in Katowice, Poland, is at the heart of an initiative by Panos, a Caribbean environmental NGO, and Climate Analytics. The initiative, Caribbean Talanoa Dialogue, gathers inputs from the region’s concerned organisations – government agencies, civil society and faith-based organisations, trade unions, community groups, scientific institutions, private sector groupings – in answer to these questions: Where are we in our response to climate change? Where do we want (and need) to go? How do we get there? The deadline for inputs is March 31.
A new Climate Analytics report released today shows that Western Australia’s gas resource emissions are four times higher than national energy carbon pollution budget under Paris Agreement. It also shows that rather than risk stranded assets by investing in gas, it would be much smarter for WA to take advantage of its vast renewable energy resources.
Peaking global CO2 emissions as soon as possible is crucial for limiting the risks of sea level rise, even if global warming is limited to well below 2°C. A study now published in the journal Nature Communications analyses for the first time the sea level legacy until 2300 within the constraints of the Paris Agreement.
A new analysis of agricultural emissions by the Climate Action Tracker shows that reducing emissions through changes in farming practices alone will not be enough to limit global warming to 1.5°C, but changing our diets and reducing food waste could make significant additional reductions, which calls for a much more holistic approach.
Below is a list of our scientific briefings released during COP23 in Bonn
COP23 briefing - There has been much talk of "Blue Carbon" in the Bonn climate negotiations. But what does it really mean? This briefing sets out the issues and finds that the use of blue carbon to offset and hence effectively avoid required emission reductions in other sectors would undermine our ability to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C.
COP23 briefing - Apart from being the largest source of CO2 emissions, coal combustion is also a major threat to public health globally. About 82% of EU, 80% German and virtually all Polish coal power plants do not comply with a new EU regulation on industry air pollution emissions standards that they need to meet by 2021.
Bonn - While US climate policy has been rolled back under President Trump, India and China have moved ahead, making significant progress in climate action over the past year, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) said today.
COP23 briefing - Limiting warming to 1.5°C is of paramount importance to protect the oceans. This briefing provides an overview of the latest science on key risks for ocean systems including from sea- level rise, ocean acidification and impacts on coral reefs and other marine and coastal ecosystems.
COP23 briefing - Following the string of high-intensity tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin in 2017 and the devastating impacts on small island states, a number of questions have been raised about linkages between these cyclones and climate change. This briefing provides clarity on scientifically-supported connections between existing tropical cyclones and climate change.
We can only limit sea level rise to around half a meter by 2100 if cumulative carbon emissions stay below 850 gigatonnes and coal is nearly phased out by 2050. If emissions continue unchecked, oceans could rise 55 per cent more than previously thought – by around 130cm in 2100, according to a paper published in Environmental Research Letters today.
Deploying current technologies to decarbonise the steel and cement industries is unlikely to be sufficient to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5?C limit, according to a new Climate Action Tracker (CAT) study - "Manufacturing a low-carbon society: how can we reduce emissions from cement and steel?" - released today.
The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) has updated its government climate action rating system to better reflect the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C long term warming limit. The new categories help to highlight the adequacy and fairness of government climate commitments for the Paris Agreement.
Marshall Islands climate ambassador Tony de Brum died aged 72 on Tuesday at his home in Majuro. Here's a statement from Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare, who had the honour to work with him in the UN climate negotiation process.
Based on scientific output, organised workshops and participation in key international climate conferences, Climate Analytics is ranked 12th out of 244 independent climate think tanks, according to the standardised ranking by the International Center for Climate Governance, released on June 29.
Observational records show that half a degree increase in global temperature in the recent past has resulted in substantial increases in extreme weather events, according to a commentary in Nature Climate Change, published today.
The future of natural gas is limited, even as a bridging fuel. Continued investments into the sector create the risk of breaching the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal and will result in stranded assets, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) said today.
We have the pleasure to announce our 2016 Annual Report, where we look back at how our work reflected and fed into the global priorities following the adoption of the Paris Agreement.
Global leadership on climate is changing: Positive developments on coal use in China and India are likely to reduce projected global carbon emissions growth by roughly two to three billion tonnes by 2030 compared to forecasts made a year ago, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) said today.
Triggering a global transformation of our energy systems as required by the Paris Agreement does not take the whole world—it can be started by just a small group of countries, according to a new Climate Action Tracker report.
US President Trump’s Executive Order on “Promoting Energy Independence and Economic Growth” sets the US on a path to miss its Paris Agreement commitment for 2025 by a large margin, the Climate Action Tracker said today, adding that it would warrant moving the US from a “medium” to an “inadequate” CAT rating.
Which country is making more progress in decarbonising their road transport sector with low-carbon fuels? Which country has a higher share of renewable energy? How does this look for countries without a large share of hydropower? All of these questions, and many others, can now be answered through the Climate Action Tracker’s new interactive decarbonisation data portal, launched today.
The EU will need to phase out CO2 emissions from all of its coal plants in the next 15 years if it is to meet the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goals, according to a new Climate Analytics report released in Brussels today.
A video made by the World Economic Forum, showing what we need to do in the next decade to slow global warming. It is based on the recent Climate Action Tracker report, which outlines the ten most important short-term steps to limit warming to 1.5°C .
Marrakech, 16 November - The Low Carbon Monitor, a new report launched by the United Nations Development Programme today, examines the benefits and opportunities of limiting warming to 1.5°C as enshrined in the goal of the Paris Agreement on climate change.
Marrakech, 16 November 2016 -The Climate Action Tracker today spelt out ten important, short-term steps that key sectors need to take to help the world achieve the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
Marrakech 14 November - a new Climate Analytics report released today on the implications of the Paris Agreement for coal fired electric generation shows that the Paris Agreement 1.5°C temperature limit requires a quick phase-out of coal used for electric power generation.
Marrakech 10 November - The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) finds there has been little progress on national climate policies in the eleven months since the Paris Agreement was adopted.
Editors of a special issue of journal Regional Environmental Change are inviting submissions of articles that focus specifically on the 1.5⁰C temperature limit and its implications for Small Island Developing States. The resulting collection of articles would ultimately feed into the IPCC 1.5°C special report due in 2018.
The building sector accounts for around 20% of climate-changing emissions, and its energy demand is likely to double by mid-century without action, according to a new Climate Action Tracker (CAT) analysis.
The much anticipated climate change documentary "Before the Flood," produced by Leonardo DiCaprio, is now available for free viewing. Over 50 experts contributed additional background information, which you can explore on the website accompanying the film. Climate Analytics experts contributed sections on regional climate impacts.
Did you know that Small Island Developing States (SIDS) were the first to champion the 1.5 degree goal? Rueanna Haynes, Legal Advisor at Climate Analytics, talks to the Climate Tracker about the importance of this goal to the Caribbean and other SIDS around the world.
Dr Tabea Lissner, who leads our work in the field of socio-ecological systems and vulnerability, explains how significant the differences in climate change impacts are between global warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C in this Beyond Zero Emissions podcast. The podcast was produced with 3CR, an Australian community radio station in Melbourne.
Climate Analytics researchers are in Keble College in Oxford 20-22 September for the conference entitled “1.5 degrees: Meeting the challenges of the Paris Agreement.” The two-day meeting of over 200 prominent climate science and policy researchers aims to identify the key areas the scientific community will need to concentrate on to fill the research gap on the nature, benefits and feasibility of a 1.5°C world.
Zero-emission vehicles need to reach a dominant market share by around 2035 for the world to meet the Paris Agreement’s lower warming limit of 1.5°C—and even that could be too late to avoid the need for significant negative emissions, according to new analysis by the Climate Action Tracker. This transformation of the passenger transport sector would also have to be accompanied by a decarbonisation of the power sector to ensure the electric vehicles (EV) are truly emissions free.
A new Climate Analytics report, released by The Climate Institute today, looks at the implications of the 1.5°C warming limit in the Paris Agreement for Australia, and, in the light of the severe environmental impacts it faces, emphasises the urgency of ramping up climate action.
Climate Analytics experts on international law, climate impacts, climate finance and economics were invited to contribute to the Climate Vulnerable Forum’s events 11-15 August, bringing together key leaders of climate vulnerable countries in the Philippines.
A new analysis of the scientific and policy aspects of the 1.5°C temperature limit in the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal has identified a number of important areas that require more scientific research.
A new analysis of the scientific and policy aspects of the 1.5°C temperature limit in the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal has identified a number of important areas that require more scientific research.
Climate Analytics' Tabea Lissner is at a series of events in Brisbane, Suva and Melbourne, sharing the results of our recently published study on what regional differences there would be between a global warming of 2°C and 1.5°C.
Climate Analytics’ Olivia Serdeczny gave a keynote presentation on climate impacts at the annual National Adaptation Plan Expo, 11-15 July in Bonn, Germany.
Finland and the European Union need to strengthen their climate pledges, rapidly cut emissions and speed up introducing renewables into the energy mix to be in line with the 1.5°C warming limit in the Paris Agreement, according to a new report.
The latest in UNEP’s Adaptation Gap Report series looks at the difference between adaptation costs in developing countries and funds currently available, identifying a vast 'adaptation finance gap'. The report was written by experts from 15 institutions, including Climate Analytics.
Join us for this event in New York on 21 April - on the eve of the Signing Ceremony of the Paris Agreement, our experts will present their analysis of the delicately balanced global climate deal and the next steps for its entry into force and implementation. They will also clarify the latest climate science, assess the emission reduction pledges to date and debate how the world can adopt pathways consistent with the agreement to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C.
European researchers have found substantially different climate change impacts for a global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C by 2100. The additional 0.5°C would mean a 10-cm-higher global sea-level rise by 2100, longer heat waves, and would result in virtually all tropical coral reefs being at risk. The research is published today (21 April) in Earth System Dynamics, an open access journal of the European Geosciences Union (EGU), and is presented at the EGU General Assembly.
A new report by Climate Analytics, commissioned by the Wilderness Society, looks at BP's the new planned oil venture in the Great Australian Bight in the light of Australia's climate commitments under the new international climate agreement.
A new paper in Nature Climate Change, co-authored by Dr. Michiel Schaeffer of Climate Analytics, assesses the differences between various carbon budget estimates from IPCC and other sources, and identifies the most appropriate carbon budget for holding warming below 2°C.
Climate Analytics event focusing of some of the key issues for vulnerable countries following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, an exploration of what the 1.5°C temperature limit means for European climate policy and steps in the implementation of the agreement.
Saturday, 12 December 2015, Le Bourget - Statement on the Paris Agreement from Dr Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics
The final Climate Action Tracker analysis confirms that climate pledges (INDCs) put us on a pathway for 2.7˚C warming but finds that there is room for more action.
Our side event at COP21 on 4 Dec 2015 focuses on data and values, science, politics and mechanisms relating to the ambition and impact of INDCs and the new climate agreement. The event is a collaboration with PBL and TERI.
Coal plant plans could wipe out hope of holding warming below 2°C and threaten achievement of INDCs
It is technologically and economically feasible to hold warming below 1.5 or 2°C, without compromising sustainable development or undermining food security - this briefing considers the scientific conditions and critical mitigation technologies.
Even if Saudi Arabia quadrupled its emission reduction efforts, it would still be doing less than its fair share in holding global warming below 2°C, according to the latest analysis by the Climate Action Tracker.
There are many effort-sharing approaches used to determine what constitutes a fair and equitable emission reduction for a given country. This leads to very different outcomes and a large range of emissions allowances for a country. This new report by Climate Analytics provides insight into the key differences between a wide range of effort sharing models and the most important assumptions that influence countries’ emissions allowances under different equity regimes.
Heads of State and Government met at the 2015 G20 Summit, (Turkey, 15-16 November) to discuss, among other issues, development, energy and climate change finance. None of the G20 INDCs are in line with holding warming below 2°C, or 1.5°C. Taken together, the CAT finds that a very large emissions gap remains.
Over the year 2015, more than 150 countries have submitted their offers for future greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDCs). A number of modelling groups have analysed the potential impact of these offers on GHG emissions projections. This briefing compares the Climate Action Tracker’s results and approach to the most prominent assessments, the UNFCCC INDC synthesis report (UNFCCC, 2015), and the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2015
The Climate Action Tracker assesses climate plans of four large South American governments and finds them collectively disappointing
Climate Analytics is holding an evening event on 11 November in Berlin to examine the latest climate science and provide a thorough analysis of what's on the table before the Paris COP focusing on the perspective and priorities of the most vulnerable countries.
The Climate Action Tracker's finds Turkey's emission reduction plans do not represent a fair contribution to hold warming below 2°C by the end of the century and raises concerns about Turkey's plans to build new coal power plants.
Climate Action Tracker finds Indonesia's emission projections lack detail, clarity and credibility
The Climate Action Tracker estimates that emission reduction targets, or Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) for 2025 and 2030, submitted to the UN ahead of the October 1 deadline, would bring warming down to 2.7˚C, if fully implemented. This is an improvement of 0.4˚C on the last assessment of pledges at the Lima talks in December 2014 and the first time since the CAT has started tracking pledges, that projected warming is below 3°C.
In the lead up to the UN climate week and AOSIS ministerial meeting in New York, Saint Lucia and the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC) hosted a meeting for CARICOM negotiators, followed by a ministerial segment, attended by 8 ministers. The meeting was supported by our High Level Support Mechanism project.
Climate Action Tracker (CAT) has assessed 15 of the 29 INDCs submitted to the UNFCCC so far, accounting for almost 65% of global emissions, and has identified a large emission gap. The climate targets collectively lead to global emissions far beyond levels required to hold warming to below 2°C. CAT has also found that current climate policies are insufficient to limit emissions even to be in line with the already inadequate INDCs.
Climate Action Tracker assesses Australia's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), submitted to the UNFCCC on 11 August 2015, and finds its climate plan 'inadequate.' Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare says that "contrary to government assertions, the abatement task has increased considerably over the years, reflecting the negative consequences of the Australian government’s repeal and amendments of key climate policies.”
Climate Action Tracker's finds New Zealand's climate action plans anything but ambitious and heading in the opposite direction to the world's biggest emitters such as China, US and EU.
Climate Analytics' Dr. Marcia Rocha will present the Climate Action Tracker's novel approach to analysing equity in the context of INDCs at Our Common Future Conference under Climate Change in Paris, July 7-10
Climate Analytics' Florent Baarsch presents historical analogies to forecast climate change induced fluctuations of Western African countries’ macroeconomic indicators as part of Theme Day 4 at Our Common Future Conference in Paris.
Climate Analytics' close collaborator Leon Charles reflects on whether the Reasons for Concern Framework reflects the climate change risks for Small Island Developing States at Our Common Future conference in Paris. The Framework has been used by the IPCC to communicate its results to policy makers in a policy informative, but not policy prescriptive manner.
Climate Analytics' Dr. Carl-Friedrich Schleußner presents a regional differentiation of climate impacts at warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C at Our Common Future Conference in Paris.
Climate Analytics' Dr. Michiel Schaeffer and Dr. Joeri Rogelj (IIASA) contribute to Theme Day 1: State of Knowledge on Climate Change at Our Common Future conference July 7-10 in Paris. Their presentation provides key insights that link the theoretical concept of carbon budgets to a real world context.
China’s new climate plans announced this week for the Paris Climate Agreement are conflicted, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) said today. China’s non-fossil primary energy target, actions to reduce coal use, and wide range of other actions are set to make a major step toward a below 2degC pathway. However, one element – the proposed carbon intensity target - is much weaker than all the other elements put together and would be consistent with a warming of 3-4°C.
Climate Analytics’s statement on lignite coal reductions and 2020 climate targets in Germany
Ein Statement von Climate Analytics zum Braunkohle-Ausstieg und Klimaschutz in Deutschland.
South Korea’s climate plans, announced this week, will see the country double emissions by 2030 compared to 1990, and have been rated “inadequate” by the Climate Action Tracker (CAT).
On 11 June 2015 South Korea announced four options for its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), ranging from 14.7% to 31.3% below business-as-usual (BAU) by 2030. This is equivalent to 98–146% above 1990 emissions levels excluding land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF). The Climate Action Tracker, has labelled all four of the South Korean Government’s options for climate action as “inadequate.”
On 5 June 2015, Morocco submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), with a target to reduce GHG emissions including land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) by 13% below business as usual (BAU) by 2030. Based on these targets, the Climate Action Tracker rates Morocco “Sufficient”.
Japan can almost reach its proposed - and “inadequate” - INDC - target without taking any further action, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) said today. In the wake of the G7 decisions to decarbonise their economies, Japan appears to be heading in the opposite direction.
The annual UNFCCC "In-session Workshop on Long-term Finance" was held on 4-5 June 2015, during the Bonn Climate Change Conference, and focused on adaptation finance. Climate Analytics' Laetitia De Marez facilitated a break-out group on collaborative arrangements for managing climate risks.
Ahead of the upcoming G7 meeting in Germany, the Climate Action Tracker analyses the combined INDCs of all G7 governments and the EU and finds that the combined climate plans for the G7 and EU have made a small step towards the right track to hold warming to 2°C, but there is still a substantial emissions gap.
With the signature by the Government of Japan to its contribution agreement with the Green Climate Fund (GCF) now almost 60 per cent of the pledges made to the Fund at its first pledging conference in November 2014 are secured through legally binding contribution agreements. Crossing the threshold of 50 per cent of the pledges covered by these agreements gives the GCF Board the authority to start allocating funding to concrete project and programme proposals. This is a major milestone in the evolution of the Fund and successfully completes a four-year design phase that has shaped the operational policies and procedures of the GCF.
Canada’s new INDC ranks as “inadequate” under the Climate Action Tracker’s methodology. Under its INDC, Canada proposes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30% below 2005 levels in 2030. This translates to a 21% reduction below 2005 emissions levels excluding forestry, or 2% below 1990 levels.
The UNFCCC’s “Structured Expert Dialogue” (SED) last week published its technical summary, which states that using the globally-agreed warming limit of 2˚C as a “guardrail” is not safe, and that Governments should aim for 1.5˚C instead. Berlin-based research organisation Climate Analytics today released a briefing on the main points covered by the SED.
Climate Analytics released a briefing paper today which analyses the available information in the 2014 UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2014 (‘EGR’) and the IPCC AR5 to produce recommended benchmark emission levels for 2020, 2025 and 2030. In it, we evaluate the implications of the data in the 2014 UNEP EGR and the IPCC AR5 for benchmark emission levels that can be used to assess whether the aggregate level of pledges put forward for 2025 and 2030 - in the context of the ADP negotiations - are consistent with limiting warming below 2°C, and with limiting warming below a 1.5°C increase above preindustrial. We also review the outcome of the 2014 UNEP EGR in relation to the emissions gap for 2020, 2025, and 2030. Results are put in the context of the 2013 Report UNEP EGR and of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and differences explained.
While the GCF is getting ready to disburse resources, it still awaits authorisation to start committing its resources to specific projects: According to the Fund’s contribution policies, this commitment authority is triggered when contributors realise their pledges through signing official legally binding contribution agreements for 50 per cent (USD 4.7 billion) of the total pledges made to the GCF.
From April 22nd to Friday 24th, Climate Analytics organised a workshop on the relation between climate change and economic growth in Africa. It was held in partnership with the African Development Bank (AfDB), the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The workshop took place at AfDB’s headquarter in Abidjan (Côte d’Ivoire).
12.000 Geoscientists from all over Europe met in Vienna 12 -17 April for the Annual General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (EGU). Climate change and the challenges of the international negotiating process were of high priority. Climate Analytics scientists presented a number of climate change science sessions at the conference.
Japan could be able to meet its (as yet unofficial) 2030 emissions reduction target of 20% below 2013 levels by 2030 without having to implement any new policies, the Climate Action Tracker said today.
The Russian Federation submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) on 31 March 2015, proposing to reduce its emissions of net greenhouse gases (GHG) by 25% to 30% below the 1990 level by 2030. After accounting for forestry this is a reduction of only 6% to 11% below 1990 levels of industrial GHG emissions, and an increase of 30% to 38% compared to 2012 levels. Based on this target the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) rates Russia “inadequate”.
The Climate Action Tracker has analysed the US INDC in full, confirming there is little change from the commitments announced in late 2014.
Climate Action Tracker assesses government climate proposals on what’s “fair” and holds warming below 2°C.
The Gambia has embarked on developing its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) for submission to the UNFCCC in advance of the anticipated Paris agreement this year. A team from Climate Analytics look at some initial lessons from the process so far.
Switzerland is the first country to formally submit an INDC to the UNFCCC. It aims at halving greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, with at least a 30% reduction by 2030 domestically. The remainder of the emission reductions would come from “emissions reduction measures abroad”.
The European Commission has made a proposal that specifies its “intended nationally determined contribution” (INDC) to the new international agreement on climate change.
State of the Science for the ADP agreement
For the first time since 2009 the Climate Action Tracker calculates a discernibly lower temperature increase than previously estimated because of new proposed post-2020 actions.
New World Bank report, produced by Climate Analytics and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), assesses climate risks in Latin American and the Caribbean, Middle East and North Africa and Europe and Central Asia
Several major donors announced their contributions to the initial capitalization of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) in the lead up to the upcoming High-Level Pledging Conference 19-20 November in Berlin.
Current status of Green Climate Fund pledges ahead of this week’s Pledging Conference in Berlin
After assessing US and China's recent emission reduction pledges, the Climate Action Tracker finds that improvements needed in 2015.
Climate action efforts that focus on so-called “short-lived climate forcers” (SLCF) such as black carbon will do little to keep global warming below 2˚C in the long term, says a new study published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Comments from the Climate Action Tracker research group.
If the US and China were to adopt global best practice in their domestic action on climate, together, the world’s largest emitters could close the 2020 emissions gap by 23%, according to new research. In their latest Climate Action Tracker update, research organisations Climate Analytics, Ecofys and the PIK Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research have compared the actions of both China and the US on climate change.
In a Comment article in Nature, David G. Victor and Charles Kennel call to ‘Ditch the 2°C warming goal’ adopted by the international community. Climate Analytics examines – and refutes – their article in detail.
Australian Energy “Green Paper” foresees large increase in coal
A rapid phase out of coal as an electricity source by 2050 would reduce warming by half a degree, according to the Climate Action Tracker, in an update released today ahead of the Ban ki-Moon climate summit. The Climate Action Tracker, put together by research organisations Climate Analytics, Ecofys, and the Pik Potsdam Institute, has calculated that under current Government policies, the world is on track to warm by 3.7degC by 2100
All governments will have to significantly increase their action on climate change – both before 2020 and after, reducing total global greenhouse gas emissions to zero between 2060 and 2080, to keep warming to 2°C.
Climate Analytics’ Florent Baarsch participated in the workshop organised by MCII (Munich Climate Insurance Initiative) and GIZ on "Innovative Insurance Solutions for Climate Change in a Comprehensive Risk Management Approach – Developing a Toolkit”, May 12-13, 2014.
The four week course brings leading and renowned scientists to provide a synthesis of the most recent scientific evidence and provides an analysis of likely impacts and risks with a focus on developing countries.
Climate Analytics and New York University School of Law has analysed the reports from all governments who have delivered Fast Start Finance funding since Copenhagen in 2009.
Weak government action on climate change will lead to a projected 3.7°C of warming by 2100, around 0.6°C higher than the original promises they made in Copenhagen, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) said today.
Japan’s new 2020 target of a 3.8% cut in emissions at 2005 levels, announced overnight, will increase its own emissions and widen the global emissions gap by 3-4%, according to the Climate Action Tracker.
A new discussion paper prepared by Climate Analytics for CAN Europe that provides an analysis of the adequacy and feasibility of the 1.5°C long-term global limit.
Members of the Climate Analytics Team supported and facilitated the organisation of the Green Climate Fund Workshop on Readiness that took place in Bridgetown, Barbados from July 11‐12, 2013.
Regular food shortages in Sub-Saharan Africa….shifting rain patterns in South Asia leaving some parts under water and others without enough water for power generation, irrigation, or drinking….degradation and loss of reefs in South East Asia resulting in reduced fish stocks and coastal communities and cities more vulnerable to increasingly violent storms….these are but a few of the likely impacts of a possible global temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius in the next few decades that threatens to trap millions of people in poverty, according to a new scientific report released today by the World Bank Group.
Against a background of stalled climate talks, current analyses of climate policies show that governments are less likely than ever to deliver on the Copenhagen pledges, let alone keep global warming below 2degC, the Climate Action Tracker said today in its latest update, released at the Bonn climate talks.
While developed countries reported that they over-delivered on their promise to give USD 30 billion between 2010-12 to developing countries for adaptation to - and taking action on - climate change, a number of challenges remain to scale up to an efficient climate finance system by 2020, to serve the new agreement, says our analysis on Fast Start Finance, released at the climate talks in Bonn.
Limiting global warming below 2degC – or even to below 1.5DegC remains technically and economically feasible, but only with political ambition backed by rapid action starting now, the Climate Action Tracker said today.
Turn Down the Heat’ Warns Without Policy Action, Results Could Be Dire: Flooding of Cities, Malnutrition Rising, Reefs Dying, Unbearable Heat Waves
The Fast Start Finance (FSF) period is drawing to a close and negotiations on the long-term framework for climate finance have gathered momentum. Climate Analytics gGmbH, the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy GmbH, and Germanwatch e.V. have carried out a study analysing the German FSF experiences to date. Based on these findings, the authors draw up recommendations for the further shaping of long-term financing for mitigation and adaptation.
The latest update of the Climate Action Tracker, released recently at the UN climate talks in Bangkok, shows that current mitigation pledges by governments are placing the planet on a path towards an temperature increase of 3°C or more above pre-industrial levels by 2100 -- although it is technically feasible to limit the increase to 2°C or less. The CAT analysis underlines that this is due to a lack of ambition and political will on the part of governments, rather than inadequate participation in the negotiations.
A report recently prepared by Ecofys and Climate Analytics on commission by the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation, entitled ‘Closing the 2020 emissions gap: Issues, options and strategies’, considers how greenhouse-gas emissions can be cut to limit global warming. The emissions gap refers to the discrepancy between 2020 levels of emissions which would be consistent with the goal to hold warming below 2°C or to 1.5°C , and the levels of emissions expected for 2020 based on current emission-reduction pledges by all individual countries – which are set to be much higher in total.
An additional session of the international climate change negotiations are due to begin next week in Bangkok, Thailand, and will run from 30 August to 5 September. -
A new study led by Michiel Schaeffer of Climate Analytics explores the effect of various potential emission pathways on future sea-level rise, using a model based on data on sea levels over the last millennium.
Climate Analytics and the World Resources Institute (WRI) convened an informal meeting of negotiators involved in the design of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) in New York City. The purpose was to provide an opportunity for prospective Board members, alternates, advisers, and other delegations involved in negotiations around the GCF, to exchange views on the next steps in the Fund’s design and operationalization.
Many Governments do not appear to be implementing policies to meet their 2020 emission reduction pledges, and could increase – not shrink, the gap between real emissions and what’s needed to keep global temperature rise to 1.5 or 2 degC.
Bill Hare, Director of Climate Analytics and Senior Scientist, was featured by tcktcktck with an interview in their Expert Spotlight.
View the new Climate Analytics Working Paper 2012-1
Delaying any decisions on future climate action until 2015 or 2020 will bring a rapidly increasing risk in costs and threatens the likelihood of the world being able to keep global warming to below 2 degrees C, the Climate Action Tracker warned today in its Durban update.
Australia’s new climate legislation is a historic breakthrough, but is still not stringent enough to help the world keep global warming to below 2 degrees C, according to a major analysis of the country’s climate actions. The analysis is the first in a series of full country analyses being undertaken by the Climate Action Tracker team.
China is on track to meet – or even surpass – some of its Cancun climate pledges, yet its emissions will rise higher than expected, according to the latest Climate Action Tracker, released at the Panama climate negotiations. Please read the official press release.
Emissions and CO2 concentrations at record highs – Developed countries ambition stalled while developing countries gearing up to act
Climate Analytics jointly with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Ecofys will present a side event on 7 June at the Bonn Climate Talks: From pledges to action – on track to close the gap?
At the workshops at the UNFCCC meetings in Bangkok on 3 and 4 April, countries clarified their pledges, but did not increase their ambition level.
Watch the interview Bill Hare gave to Climate Change TV on April 5 at the occasion of the UNFCCC Climate Talks in Bangkok.
As the climate talks in Durban concluded tonight with a groundbreaking establishment of the Durban Platform to negotiate a new global agreement by 2015, scientists stated that the world continues on a pathway of over 3°C warming with likely extremely severe impacts, the Climate Action Tracker said today. - See more at: http://www.climateanalytics.org/news?items_per_page=All#sthash.2iYnP4Vz.dpuf
The updated and expanded version of our discussion-paper on fast-start finance commitments provides an assessment of fast start pledges looking at a broad range of definitions of “new and additional” funding.
Les niveaux absolus d’émissions, calculés à partir des engagements individuels d’ici 2020 dans le cadre de l’Accord de Copenhague, sont comparés aux fourchettes nécessaires pour rester sur la trajectoire des 2°C définies par le GIEC et la littérature revue par les pairs.
The absolute emission levels resulting from the current country pledges are compared to 2020 emission ranges which are in line with a "2°C pathway" and show that both Annex I and non-Annex I fall short of what the IPCC and the peer-reviewed literature are indicating.
In Copenhagen at COP15 in December 2009 developed countries committed to provide “new and additional” fast-start financial resources approaching billion for the period 2010–2012. This new study looks at what “new and additional” means, and whether or not what countries have put forward for fast start climate finance meets this test.
Members of the Climate Analytics team participated in an in-depth scientific analysis of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and its global climatic impacts, which was published in the peer-reviewed scientific journal Environmental Research Letters. -
Three days before the start of the next round of UN negotiations on climate change in Bonn, actions pledged globally on reductions of greenhouse gas emissions give virtually no chance to limit global mean temperature increase to below two degrees Celsius.
Despite recent developments, actions pledged globally to date on reductions of greenhouse gas emissions give virtually no chance to limit global mean temperature increase to below two degrees Celsius, according to the latest analysis by the Climate Action Tracker.
Selon la dernière publication du Climate Action Tracker, malgré de récents développements, le total des actions de réduction d’émissions proposées jusqu’à présent ne laisse quasiment aucune chance de limiter la hausse des températures en dessous de 2 degrés Celsius.
Research results to be launched today at the UNFCCC meeting in Bonn by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Ecofys and Climate Analytics will show that current pledges by countries around the world to cut greenhouse gas emissions are not sufficient to keep global temperature rises below the 2°C agreed in the Copenhagen Accord.
Today, 22nd April, Nature published an opinion piece on the Copenhagen Accord Pledges. The analysis is a collaboration of researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Ecofys and Climate Analytics.
Only 2 out of 10 developed countries’ reduction targets submitted to the Copenhagen Accord qualify as ‘sufficient’ to keep global temperature rise below 2°C, finds the update of the ’Climate Action Tracker´.
"Emissions in line with staying below 2°C - do current proposals make it?"
This is a transcript from The World Today. The program is broadcast around Australia at 12:10pm on ABC Local Radio.
The Presentation 'Low mitigation scenarios since the AR4 - Global emission pathways and climate consequences', was held by the CLIMATE ANALYTICS Project Coordinator Bill Hare at the Technical Briefing of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (AWG-LCA), 30 March 2009, at the Bonn Climate Change Talks.
A letter to the US Senate and Congress from leading US scientists and Climate Analytics Project Coordinator Bill Hare.
We released our new report on US GHG 2020 targets and 2 degree. Here the news story by Point Carbon on it.
A news report on the article co-authored by CLIMATE ANALYTICS Project Coordinator Bill Hare.
Increases in the amount of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide in the atmosphere accelerated last year, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) told Reuters on Wednesday.
Leading climate scientist Bill Hare has published the first emissions pathway to date that brings expected global warming beneath 1°C, albeit after peaking beneath 2°C and on the scale of centuries.
Traditionally economic models have shown that the costs of climate mitigation increase exponentially as the target for atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is lowered. But by altering the focus to the probability of staying below a temperature rise target, a team from the Netherlands and Germany has shown that mitigation costs tend to increase in proportion to the amount of benefit.
There’s a lot of negative news regarding the costs of government efforts to reduce global warming. But scientists in Europe have published research which shows that by focusing on lowering temperatures, rather than on reducing CO2 emissions, sizable cost benefits are achieved.
Climate change mitigation packages should be aimed at reducing temperatures rather than lowering carbon emissions. This makes global government investment in protecting the environment a lot less expensive, say European scientists.
New research means policymakers can decide on the extent of certainty for achieving their reduction targets
Tough targets for avoiding dangerous global warming may be easier to achieve than widely believed, according to a study that could ease fears of a prohibitive long-term surge in costs.
Despite the global economic downturn, spending money now to keep climate change in check makes sense as it will save us money in the long run. A new analysis has found that boosting spending is worth it because the chances of preventing catastrophic warming increases linearly with the amount invested.
Economic slowdown will give a respite from surging greenhouse gas emissions but the world will struggle to shift in the long-term to new, greener lifestyles, delegates said at U.N. climate talks on Thursday.