Will 2024 be the year emissions start falling?
'Peaking' is the point at which global greenhouse gas emissions stop growing and start falling – the critical first step towards halving emissions by 2030 in line with our climate goals.
There's a lot of analysis out there on peaking; we sift through the stories to see if (and when) emissions could peak. First up, some promising signs that a peak is on its way.
CO2 emissions may have already peaked
The International Energy Agency (IEA) finds that CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels (by far the largest source of all emissions) will peak before 2025 based on current policies – and potentially as early as 2023.
Global energy sector CO2 emissions in the pre-Paris baseline scenario and the IEA STEPS projections, 2015-2030. IEA (CC BY 4.0).
Global energy sector CO2 emissions in the pre-Paris baseline scenario and the IEA STEPS projections, 2015-2030. IEA (CC BY 4.0).
Growth in clean electricity is set to outstrip demand growth for the first time
For years, wind and solar deployment has been growing – but not as fast as total electricity demand.
The result – fossil fuels have kept growing alongside renewables, and with them, total emissions.
But we may be reaching a tipping point.
In 2023, we installed more than 500 GW of renewables. That’s a 50% increase on the year before.
As these new renewables connect to the grid and start producing electricity, wind and solar growth could start to outstrip demand growth – pushing fossil fuels out of the energy mix in 2024.
If this happens, then power sector emissions – which are the highest of all sectors – would already be past their peak.
The IEA's latest forecasts support this. They say power sector emissions are entering structural decline, starting with a 2.4% fall in 2024.
Nowhere is the explosive growth in wind and solar clearer than in China, where huge amounts were deployed in 2023. This impressive growth could see emissions start to fall in the world's largest emitter in 2024.
As other sectors increasingly electrify around the world, emissions from buildings, transport and industry would also be pushed into decline.
We're already seeing the rapid electrification of cars in the transport sector. Sales of electric vehicles are on track to reach over 80% of new cars by 2030.
What could delay a peak in emissions?
These signs from different analyses all point to one thing – we may have already past peak CO2 emissions globally.
Our recent report agrees. Based on the latest growth rates of key clean technologies, we find CO2 emissions could start falling in 2024 as wind and solar displace coal and gas and electric vehicles reduce demand for oil.
The IEA's new predictions of renewables growth this decade suggest that wind and solar capacity will reach 3600-3800 GW by 2025. Our scenario (which sees a peak in emissions in 2023) reaches 3700 GW by 2025 – right in the middle of their forecast.
Our analysis looks across all greenhouse gases – the first to do so – to test if we can meet the IPCC deadline.
We find that the accelerated deployment of clean technologies gives an over 60% chance that emissions will start falling in 2024, adding in moderate action on methane, nitrous oxide and F-gases pushes this up to 70%.
But peaking is by no means guaranteed. Our analysis shows that only if renewables keep scaling at current rates (and if demand grows as the IEA predicts) will emissions peak before 2025.
But couldn't government plans to expand fossil fuel production push back the peaking date?
While this is a risk, our analysis focuses on the real pace of change in the energy system, not plans. If these changes continue apace, such planned fossil projects may become stranded assets.
The same is true for the UN’s Emissions Gap Report, which shows emissions plateauing under current policies. If changes in the energy market continue to run ahead of policies, there’s a good chance global emissions could peak soon.
Yet there's no room for complacency. The race to peak emissions before 2025 is ours to lose. And peaking would only be the start of the journey – with much more action required to keep 1.5ºC in sight.
How can we ensure we peak in time?
It’s clear. A peak in global emissions is possible – and possibly coming soon.
Our analysis focuses on four key actions governments can take over the next two years to make sure we peak in time:
1. Concerted action on methane. Signatories to the Global Methane Pledge need to make adequate progress towards achieving their collective target.
2. Action on other gases. Low-cost measures to tackle gases like nitrous oxide plus implementing the Kigali Amendment on hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) would make an important contribution to reducing emissions.
3. Getting behind the success of wind, solar and electric vehicles. This is the most powerful lever in terms of emissions savings, especially accelerating the deployment of solar and wind.
4. Cutting emissions from land use. Continuing to cut land emissions and enhancing land sinks in line with the past ten years is another powerful lever – but due to high uncertainties in assessing land emissions, we didn't include this in our peaking analysis.
Other key actions, such as the rapid rollout of heat pumps and energy efficiency improvements, were not assessed due to data availability but would bring emissions down even faster.
What these scenarios show is that just by pulling four levers among many, peaking before 2025 is possible.
At COP28, governments recognised the need to peak before 2025, but stopped short of committing to doing it.
Committing to meet this milestone brings near-term action into focus. We need much faster action in the coming years if we are to halve emissions by 2030 in line with the Paris Agreement.
Peaking emissions by 2025 – actually meeting a key IPCC deadline on the road to 1.5°C – would offer the hope and momentum the world needs to meet its climate goals.
Our experts on when global emissions might peak
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