Air-pollution emission ranges consistent with the representative concentration pathways

Date Published 2014, May 18

Authors Joeri Rogelj, Shilpa Rao, David L. Mc Collum, Shonali Pachauri, Zbigniew Klimont, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi

Institution Nature Climate Change

Journal Nature Climate Change
4, 446–450 , doi:10.1038/nclimate2178

The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project1 uses four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) that span the literature range of total anthropogenic radiative forcing, but not necessarily of each single forcing agent. We here explore a wide range of air-pollutant emissions over the twenty-first century consistent with the global CO2 paths of the RCPs, by varying assumptions on air-pollution controls and accounting for the possible phase-out of CO2-emitting sources. We show that global air-pollutant emissions in the RCPs (including ozone and aerosol precursors) compare well to and are at times higher than cases that assume an extrapolation of current and planned air-pollution legislation in the absence of new policies to improve energy access for the poor.