December 2019 – December 2022
Blueprints for action: helping countries meet climate targets
February 25, 2020 – IKEA Foundation announcement of the project grant for the NDC 1.5°C Pathways project.
Leaders of 197 countries recognised that climate change poses an ever-greater threat to their people, ecosystems and economies, and in 2015 at the United Nations climate summit in Paris, committed to address this threat through the Paris Agreement. The Agreement aims to keep global temperature rise below 2⁰C above pre-industrial levels and to try and limit it even further to 1.5⁰C by the end of the 21st century in order to prevent the worst of climate impacts.
As part of the Agreement, 184 of these countries put forward pledges to cut carbon emissions (called Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs) but their combined effect is not sufficient to reach this goal. At the moment they put the world on a path to 3°C of warming – double the agreed, safer limit.
Individual national governments are required to put forward more ambitious emission reduction targets, that would align with the PA. In an urgent need to translate global trajectories to align with the Paris Agreement, countries would require support to realise this objective.
In fact, the leading international climate scientific body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) showed not only why governments must act urgently to prevent higher levels of warming but also how emissions can be brought to net-zero by mid-century and stay within the small remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
In this collaboration with the IKEA Foundation, Climate Analytics will use these IPCC pathways in combination with other lines of state-of-the-art scientific evidence to show how a selection of 68 countries across all regions and development spectrum can update their pledges (NDCs) to be in line with the Paris Agreement and live up to their promises to prevent dangerous climate change.
The analyses for each of the selected countries will take into account national circumstances and policies and will be based on four key elements:
- Global 1.5°C compatible pathways – based on the pathways in the IPCC special report on 1.5°C, we will work with a leading climate modelling community to derive custom-made, up-to-date Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) scenarios. While these pathways remain the essential benchmark for long-term energy-system transformation, they do not necessarily keep track of current developments in energy markets, technological developments, consumer choices and policy trajectories, sustainability constraints identified by the IPCC and others, the plausibility and desirability of future large-scale deployment of key technologies, such as BECCS, nuclear power plants, fossil fuel with CCS, land-use options, etc.
- Scaling down global pathways to national and sectoral level – the custom-made IAM scenarios will be downscaled for each country and its electricity, transport, buildings and industry sectors and include country specific policies based on national stakeholder consultations.
- National Land-Use Sector Pathways – many NDCs set targets including emissions from the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector. To analyse their consistency with the Paris Agreement we will scale down Land Use sector emissions from the IPCC with a coherent set of assumptions to the country level providing guidance on their national forestry pathways.
- Investments required in the power sector – to support countries in updating their national pathways and related resources needed, we will derive from sectoral pathways the investments required in the power sector. The analyses will include latest information on technology-specific investment costs, retirement schedules and depreciation rates of energy infrastructure and technology learning rates
- Stakeholder consultations and engagement – the national pathways will include country specific policies and national developments which will be gathered during national stakeholder consultations. The resulting policy recommendations will be co-developed through strong engagement with stakeholders in the respective regions – such as multilateral bodies, regional and national policy institutes and civil society organisations – and the countries themselves in order to co-design ambitious but actionable pathways to meet the global climate challenge.