April – May 2016
This report analyses the implications of the 1.5°C temperature limit in the Paris Agreement for energy and climate policy in Finland and the European Union. The report is in English and contains a summary in Finnish.
Here are the key findings of the report.
Like Paris? Do more to show it!, Oras Tynkkynen & Mari Pantsar (Sitra), Bill Hare, Marcia Rocha & Fabio Sferra (Climate Analytics), 8 July 2016
This project investigates the implications of the Paris Agreement, especially the implications of its long-term temperature goals, for greenhouse gas emission mitigation in the European Union and Finland. Inferring the consequences of a global temperature limit on a region or country requires splitting the mitigation efforts required to meet that limit to the country/regional level.
The project involves a set of analyses based on Integrated Assessment Modelling results and fairness indicators, such as historical responsibility for global climate change, or capability to contribute to global emission reduction efforts. It utilises Climate Analytics’ well established equity tool to better understand what is the mitigation needed and expected from Finland and the EU domestically and with investments overseas.
The analysis focuses on the following elements:
- Identify GHG emission targets to limit global warming well below 2°C and to limit global mean warming to 1.5°C.
- Discuss probabilistic uncertainty introduced by climate sensitivity estimates in the analysis
- Analyse GHG concentration in the atmosphere for each scenario, taking into account uncertainties in the global carbon cycle and atmospheric chemistry.
- Analyse the remaining global emission budget to reach the 2°C and 1.5°C limits
- Provide scenarios on how to allocate the remaining emission budget over time.
- Calculate emission reduction targets for Finland and the EU
- Estimate finance needs flowing from EU and Finland to fund mitigation in the rest of the world
This project is funded by Sitra, a Finnish public fund tasked with promoting Finland’s sustainable development, economic growth and international competitiveness and co-operation. One of Sitra’s key areas of focus is resource-wise and carbon-neutral society.