Briefing: UNFCCC science review of the adequacy of the 2˚C temperature goal

The UNFCCC’s “Structured Expert Dialogue” (SED) last week published its technical summary, which states that using the globally-agreed warming limit of 2˚C as a “guardrail” is not safe, and that Governments should aim for 1.5˚C instead.

Climate Analytics today released a briefing on the main points covered by the SED.

Key quote from report:

“We are therefore of the view that Parties would profit from restating the long-term global goal as a ‘defence line’ or ‘buffer zone’, instead of a ‘guardrail’ up to which all would be safe. This new understanding would then probably favour emission pathways that will limit warming to a range of temperatures below 2 °C. In the very near term, such aspirations would keep open as long as possible the option of a warming limit of 1.5 °C, and would avoid embarking on a pathway that unnecessarily excludes a warming limit below 2 °C.”

Commenting on the findings of the report, Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare said:

“The findings of this report vindicate the stance of SIDS and LDCs in insisting on the review and in keeping the 1.5°C goal in sight during the climate negotiations. The report should lead to increasing recognition of the legitimacy and significance of the 1.5°C goal from governments.”

The SED is the process where the findings of the IPCC’s AR5 report are brought into the climate negotiations/UNFCCC process. The SED will be used as a key input into the negotiations on the long term global goals of the new ADP agreement and on the emission reductions needed for the period after 2020.

Adjusting the global goal from below 2degC to 1.5degC means that emission reductions will need to occur faster and the time by which global emissions are reduced to zero will need to occur earlier.

Contact: Bill Hare – +49 160 908 63463

Link: Climate Analytics Briefing on the SED report