Climate Policy Analysis

We provide analysis and expert information on existing and required emissions reductions measures and policies to assist SIDS and LDCs in strengthening their negotiating positions and ambition in the negotiations.

Coal Mine Garzweiler ©Bert Kaufmann, CC BY-SA 2.0
Coal Mine Garzweiler ©Bert Kaufmann, CC BY-SA 2.0

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Our side event at COP21 on 4 Dec 2015 focuses on data and values, science, politics and mechanisms relating to the ambition and impact of INDCs and the new climate agreement. The event is a collaboration with PBL and TERI.  
Climate Action Tracker (CAT) has assessed 15 of the 29 INDCs submitted to the UNFCCC so far, accounting for almost 65% of global emissions, and has identified a large emission gap. The climate targets collectively lead to global emissions far beyond levels required to hold warming to below 2°C. CAT has also found that current climate policies are insufficient to limit emissions even to be in line with the already inadequate INDCs.  
Climate Action Tracker assesses Australia's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), submitted to the UNFCCC on 11 August 2015, and finds its climate plan 'inadequate.' Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare says that "contrary to government assertions, the abatement task has increased considerably over the years, reflecting the negative consequences of the Australian government’s repeal and amendments of key climate policies.”  
Climate Analytics' Dr. Marcia Rocha will present the Climate Action Tracker's novel approach to analysing equity in the context of INDCs at Our Common Future Conference under Climate Change in Paris, July 7-10  
China’s new climate plans announced this week for the Paris Climate Agreement are conflicted, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) said today. China’s non-fossil primary energy target, actions to reduce coal use, and wide range of other actions are set to make a major step toward a below 2degC pathway. However, one element – the proposed carbon intensity target - is much weaker than all the other elements put together and would be consistent with a warming of 3-4°C.  

Publications

On 11 August 2015, Australia submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC). The Climate Action Tracker rates Australia’s INDC 2030 target to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 26–28% from 2005 levels including land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) by 2030 as “inadequate.” After accounting for LULUCF, this target is equivalent to a range of around 5% below to 5% above 1990 levels of GHG emissions excluding LULUCF in the year 2030.  
Climate Action Tracker’s analysis looking at the combined INDCs of all G7 governments and the EU, who are responsible, in aggregate, for around 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions and 40% of global GDP, ahead of the 2015 G7 meeting in Germany. The combined climate plans for the G7 and EU have made a small step towards the right track to hold warming to 2°C, but there is still a substantial emissions gap.  
This Climate Action Tracker Update describes a new method to assess “comparable efforts” and the “fair share” of governments’ national greenhouse gas reduction proposals. Such a comparison is essential for the successful completion of an agreement on climate change in Paris in December this year, as some governments have made their offers conditional on comparable action by others.