The Paris climate deal is a hair’s breadth away from meeting the criteria to enter into force in 2016. That is the upshot of two independent analyses, by the Marshall Islands foreign ministry and consultancy Climate Analytics.
Science underpinning the global treaty aiming to stop average temperatures rising more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels needs more research. Climate News Network's Alex Kirby in Climate Home on our latest research around the 1.5˚C long term temperature limit.
Brexit unlikely to slow momentum towards global climate deal coming into force, with EU left to tackle complex negotiations with UK. Under a scenario published by Climate Analytics, a global network of policy specialists, 50 countries covering 53.28% of global emissions are likely to sign off the UN pact by the end of 2016.
15 countries accounting for 0.04% of emissions ratified the Paris Agreement during the UN signing ceremony in New York. Another 23 nations accounting for 51% of emissions have declared their intention to follow by the end of 2016, according to a tracker by Climate Analytics. It brings the double threshold tantalisingly close. So what would it take to get over the finish line?
Climate Analytics event focusing of some of the key issues for vulnerable countries following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, an exploration of what the 1.5°C temperature limit means for European climate policy and steps in the implementation of the agreement.
In freezing President Barack Obama's plan to tackle carbon emissions, the US Supreme Court delivered a blow to a global climate deal - but experts say that US commitments to the deal will survive. Bill Hare: "The Paris Agreement will ride through this. There are many challenges ahead and I am more concerned about countries like Japan pressing ahead with coal than this action by the US Supreme Court."
The actions outlined in the Paris pledges would be expected to lead to global warming of around 3°C. Given that there has already been about 1°C of warming, the measures required to stay below 1.5°C would be beyond heroic. Work by Joeri Rogelj and colleagues suggests that it would mean net emissions having to fall to zero in at most 40 years.
Following adoption of the Paris Agreement, a number of questions have been raised related to signature, ratification and entry into force of the Paris Agreement, some practical, some strategic. This briefing looks at issues that relate to the possibility of early entry into force, the status of Party INDCs both pre-ratification and post-ratification, protection of the Paris Agreement's 1.5 degree temperature limitation goal, and the implications of decision 1/CP.21 on the Paris Agreement's treatment of loss and damage.
The term ‘climate neutrality’ is currently resonating in the climate policy arena and is included in the collective mitigation goal (Article 3.1) of the draft Paris Agreement. A close look at this relatively new and scientifically ill defined term and its potential implications reveals a fundamental risk that this term will be used to undermine efforts to reduce CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions and be used to introduce dangerous geo-engineering approaches into the climate regime.
The Structured Expert Dialogue (SED) - set up by the UNFCCC and conducted over 2013-2015 - is a process that has reviewed the adequacy of the agreed Long Term Goal (LTGG) of holding warming below 2°C. It has now released a technical summary. This is a synthesis of the key points in that report.
Science and policy to assist and support SIDSs and LDCs to negotiate a strong international climate regime, enabling low carbon development and supporting adaptation needs.
Project analysing the advantages and disadvantages of different forms of commitments and assessing which level of ambition can be expected from selected 15 industrialised, emerging and developing countries. Project Period: 2013 - 2016
Implemented under a collaborative framework, this project is designed to provide specific analytical, scientific and strategic information and support to strengthen the capacity of Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Project Period: 2011 - 2012
This initiative aims to support negotiators from the least developed countries (LDCs) who are participating in progressive coalitions, based on their requests. Project Period: 2012
Climate Analytics provides analytical support to NGOs. Project Period: 2009
The objective of the Most Vulnerable Countries initiative was to assist climate leaders in vulnerable developing countries during the global climate negotiations leading up to the Copenhagen Climate Conference. Project Period: 2009 - 2010
PREVENT is built around a team of experienced climate scientists and analysts, whose objective is to provide science, policy, strategic and analytical support for delegations of the LDCs and SIDS, backed by science-based models to assess and synthesize climate science. Project Period: 2008 - 2011