Benchmark Emission Levels for 2025 and 2030 consistent with the below 2°C limit and the 1.5°C limit

This briefing paper analyses the available information in the 2014 UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2014 (‘EGR’) and the IPCC AR5 to produce recommended benchmark emission levels for 2020, 2025 and 2030. We evaluate the implications of the data in the 2014 UNEP EGR and the IPCC AR5 for benchmark emission levels that can be used to assess whether the aggregate level of pledges put forward for 2025 and 2030 – in the context of the ADP negotiations – are consistent with limiting warming below 2°C, and with limiting warming below a 1.5°C increase above preindustrial.
We also review the outcome of the 2014 UNEP EGR in relation to the emissions gap for 2020, 2025, and 2030. We put the results in the context of the 2013 UNEP EGR and of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and explain the differences.