After Durban: Risk of delay in raising ambition lowers chances for 2°C, while heading for 3.5°C

The Durban Climate Summit concluded with groundbreaking establishment of a new body to negotiate a global agreement covering all countries by 2015 (Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action). With a new agreement not scheduled to take effect until 2020 the new agreement appears unlikely to affect the level of action in 2020 already pledged.

Date Published
2011, December 11

Authors
Niklas Höhne, Bill Hare, Michiel Schaeffer, and Marion Vieweg-Mersmann

Institution
Climate Analytics, Ecofys, PIK

As the agreements in Durban do not propose additional action before 2020 the risk of exceeding 2°C remains very high. Action to implement the Durban Agreements will need to be quick to increase emission mitigation and hence have a chance at reaching this goal. Catching up on postponed action is costly and the technological and economic options required to do so are largely untested - or unknown. The Climate Action Tracker estimates that global mean warming would reach about 3.5°C by 2100 with the reduction proposals currently on the table.