Analysis of equitable mitigation contribution of countries

There are many effort-sharing approaches used to determine what constitutes a fair and equitable emission reduction for a given country. This leads to very different outcomes and a large range of emissions allowances for a country. This new report by Climate Analytics provides insight into the key differences between a wide range of effort sharing models and the most important assumptions that influence countries’ emissions allowances under different equity regimes.

Date2015, November 23
Wind turbines in South Africa ©Lollie-Pop, CC BY 2.0
 

The report Analysis of equitable mitigation contribution of countries seeks to determine benchmarks for fair and adequate emission reduction effort ranges in the post-2015 agreement. It analyses Brazil, India, South Africa in detail and provides a short assessment of those ranges for large economies (China, USA, European Union, Switzerland, Norway, Mexico, Russia and Canada) and a selection of African countries (Botswana, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Morocco, Mozambique and Namibia).

This report was commissioned by the Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) Programme.

Here is the summary of the key findings:

Brazil – the more ambitious mitigation scenario proposed by the MAPS programme is in line with Brazil’s fair-share. Fair and adequate emissions levels for India are in the range of 2.8-3.8 GtCO2e by 2025 and 2.8-4.2 GtCO2e by 2030.

India – fair and adequate emissions levels are in the range of 2.8-3.8 GtCO2e by 2025 and 2.8-4.2 GtCO2e by 2030 – well below the emissions levels implied by the INDC finally submitted by India of around 5GtCO2e by 2030.

South Africa – only the most ambitious end of the Peak, Plateau and Decline (PPD) range is in line with the country’s fair share.

The assessment of INDCs and fair share of large economies (China, USA, European Union, Switzerland, Norway, Mexico, Russia and Canada) shows that none of the countries have submitted an INDC in line with their fair-share in a 2°C world.

Three countries – USA, Norway and Switzerland – have submitted INDCs that are in line with some viewpoints on equity, but only those that lead to the lower ambition end of their fair-share ranges. If all countries were to submit INDCs reflecting a similar level of effort, the 2°C limit would not be achieved.

Four countries —China, EU, Mexico, and Canada —have submitted insufficient INDCs (INDC target does not reach its fair share range).

Russia’s INDC is far above country’s emissions allowances fair share and implies no effort.

You can view the full report here.